Goldman Sachs Short - Overbought Momentum Loss
Goldman Sachs is a short to me here on the daily for a quick short. I'll disclose now that on the Weekly chart I am long based on the giant indented head and shoulders and the smaller head and shoulders that makes up the right shoulder. That is in my IRA however, as I do not purchase stock (writing covered calls) in my trading account simply because it ties up too much capital (usually).
The weekly outlook aside, I like what we see for a potential brief pullback here. Working from the top down, RSI is approaching it's previous two time resistance around 74, indicating to me that the stock is overbought. Both of these prior occurrences happened in the current trend.
Secondly, we have a shooting star after a two week up move, now followed by what looks like it will be a Harami. GS does not have a historical pattern of breaking out above the BB, even after a slight contraction in volatility. When it has, it's usually a quick retracement.
The one thing I do not like here is that OBV usually leads price and it has now crossed above it's 21WMA. Last time this happened it led a leg up. This time, however, over 50% of the move has already happened and it's just crossing positive, so perhaps it's not much to worry about.
IV%R is low in GS, at only 12% so that leaves the possibility of selling anything for a credit out of the books. That means I'm looking for a Long Put Spread basically. A diagonal wouldn't do because diagonals usually require some time passage, and this should be quick. Although I may keep an eye on the diagonal just to see how it would pan out. This low volatility market is no fun, and leaves my option strategies severely limited. Hopefully we will find some nice charts with higher volatility sometime tomorrow that we can enter some strangles and naked calls/puts with.
The weekly outlook aside, I like what we see for a potential brief pullback here. Working from the top down, RSI is approaching it's previous two time resistance around 74, indicating to me that the stock is overbought. Both of these prior occurrences happened in the current trend.
Secondly, we have a shooting star after a two week up move, now followed by what looks like it will be a Harami. GS does not have a historical pattern of breaking out above the BB, even after a slight contraction in volatility. When it has, it's usually a quick retracement.
The one thing I do not like here is that OBV usually leads price and it has now crossed above it's 21WMA. Last time this happened it led a leg up. This time, however, over 50% of the move has already happened and it's just crossing positive, so perhaps it's not much to worry about.
IV%R is low in GS, at only 12% so that leaves the possibility of selling anything for a credit out of the books. That means I'm looking for a Long Put Spread basically. A diagonal wouldn't do because diagonals usually require some time passage, and this should be quick. Although I may keep an eye on the diagonal just to see how it would pan out. This low volatility market is no fun, and leaves my option strategies severely limited. Hopefully we will find some nice charts with higher volatility sometime tomorrow that we can enter some strangles and naked calls/puts with.
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