Genesis Vision: Trading idea in the run up to platform launch 2
Updated
In my last GVT idea we traded Wave 3 for up to a 70% gain: 
. We hit the target very nicely and quite precisely, even ahead of time.
Now we're looking for entry points to trade Wave 5. We have resistance here at 155k and I would now expect a retrace to complete a wave 4. This could be anything from 0.382 to 0.618, indicating a buy zone to go long again between 111k and 128k sats. Much of the pump from GVT yesterday was due to confirmation of the launch date of the platform on 30th October. It's possible that due to the strength of the buying that we only make a shallow retrace to the 0.382, so I will make a DCA entry over that range. For wave 5 we can target the next resistance at 197k for potential 60%+ gains.
As always if BTC drops hard it could kill the sequence but this one has been fairly resilient so far and I wouldn't expect any major problems unless we go sub 5500. On the other hand watch out for more bullish news on this one over the next weeks which could send it through the roof. If we make target on this trade around by end Sept or earlier we may have time for a retrace on the whole sequence and another set of bullish waves to the end Oct which could provide another 2x - 3x in trading returns if it's played right. My medium term targets for GVT (end 2018) are $40+ and longer term in 2019 $200+ so it's also a good one to buy and hold.
Now we're looking for entry points to trade Wave 5. We have resistance here at 155k and I would now expect a retrace to complete a wave 4. This could be anything from 0.382 to 0.618, indicating a buy zone to go long again between 111k and 128k sats. Much of the pump from GVT yesterday was due to confirmation of the launch date of the platform on 30th October. It's possible that due to the strength of the buying that we only make a shallow retrace to the 0.382, so I will make a DCA entry over that range. For wave 5 we can target the next resistance at 197k for potential 60%+ gains.
As always if BTC drops hard it could kill the sequence but this one has been fairly resilient so far and I wouldn't expect any major problems unless we go sub 5500. On the other hand watch out for more bullish news on this one over the next weeks which could send it through the roof. If we make target on this trade around by end Sept or earlier we may have time for a retrace on the whole sequence and another set of bullish waves to the end Oct which could provide another 2x - 3x in trading returns if it's played right. My medium term targets for GVT (end 2018) are $40+ and longer term in 2019 $200+ so it's also a good one to buy and hold.
Comment
This is quite an interesting one to try and judge. Bouncing around the top of the pitchfork channel, but the tops of the 1H wicks have been cut at a horizontal level for past 12hrs, which could hint at testing resistance prior to a break. However volume has been tailing off and I’d still say 80:20 probability that we drop down from here towards out buy box.Comment
Drop occurred as expected, briefly as far as the top of my buy box but I missed the chance to start buying in. However I don't think we're done with the ABC correction yet. Two alternative possible counts are shown below.In terms of identifying the most likely turning point, an opportunity where multiple TA approaches combine/align is most likely to be correct. We can see here that the turning point could be at or just below the lower edge of the pitchfork channel, and at the same time the "4" as marked is at the 0.5 fib retractement. Thirdly there is an historical resistance level around 120k from July/Aug. Fourthly the 1H EMA200 can rise to meet the 120k level in the region that we are hoping for the turn. So based on all this I would be prepared to bet money (and I will be!) on the bottom of the ABC correction to be around 120k.
Watch out for BTC as it pushed the triangle formation up/extended it out and is likely to drop by 2% as it continues the triangle today. Small chance it breaks up out of the triangle with volume, but in that case the GVT ABC will likely be truncated.
Comment
GVT has been teasing my buy box, having dipped in a couple of times, but I've missed the chance to buy so far. I think we're in a descending wedge down to the next turning point, and BTC is now dropping back. I think this can pull GVT down to our target, complete the wedge and get us ready to break up for the next wave. I am still hopeing to get an entry closer to 120k sats. Patience!Trade active
Turned out to be a pennant, not a wedge. Possible bull break starting.. the volume isn’t fantastic yet but it is ticking up. Depending on BTC over next 1-2 days, I think it’s less likely that we’re going to make the 120k sat region so I’ve opened a modest position now with flex to DCA as needed.Comment
Turned out to be a fake break. We just had a dip so I DCA'd and will buy more if BTC forces us down lower.Comment
So this long doesn’t look to be going very well since I jumped the gun on entry during a fake break (learning: volume’s got to be better than that), but I’m comfortable with it. If we break the EMA200 we have support at the 0.618 and 0.768 (two green lines) and I can DCA there. So hold the line on this one.Comment
Couple of observations about this one:- The descending triangle is actually a very slightly descending wedge. We had a slightly lower low yesterday so I think this below is now the ABC count. It's a fairly shallow retrace for wave 4 but that's OK.
- We've bounced off the 200 EMA which has put us back in the original pitchfork channel, which is a good sign.
- A new pitchfork on waves 3 & 4 has a centreline exactly coinciding with the upper line of the original waves 1 & 2 pitchfork, on the next major resistance, just short of the 1:1 extension from the wave 4 retrace, which was exactly where I had my wave 5 target.
- volume has ticked up to more useful levels. But we'll need much bigger numbers 3 - 5 times this to get through the resistance at 156k. If we can punch through 156k with volume I think we can easily get to 185k to 197k. I'll be looking for 45% gain on this one but if you got a really good entry there is 55% available.
As always eyes on BTC like a hawk!
Comment
I think we're away on this one, 11% up already even with my bad entry point. I hope someone followed my original buy box and is now 18% up.We can expect to take a couple of subwaves on the way up. The first one likely at the 156k resistance. For me trying to trade those is too much effort and I'll hold this trade until early October if necessary. At this stage you never know when another piece of project news will make it pop so it's better to stay in IMO.
Comment
Here's the subwave and sub-subwave count. This is absolutely textbook and beautiful the way it bounces off the 200 EMA just below the boundary of the pitchfork and then reverses off the 156k resistance exactly as I proposed in my previous update. We now expect to see a climb back to - and break through - the 156k level which will give us the freedom to climb up to the 1.618 extension on wave 3, around 187k sats. The crypto market is looking strong with a massive boom in XRP and strengthening BTC so I will stay in this one for all 5 subwaves and continue to pitch for the target at 195k - 197k. We could be above $13 at that point.Comment
This trade is really teasing us with a very big retrace on subwave 2, well past the 0.768 and below the pitchfork and the EMA200. But I am still bullish on GVT for so many reasons, this is a trade to hold on to, it will regain the ground IMO and just a small piece of news will trigger a run. Just got to watch BTC in the event of a heavy rejection from the 6 months descending trendline which it will approach over the next 7 days.Comment
Ascending triangle? Hopefully we can catch up with the plan today if/when we break up from this.Comment
Timeline still shifting to the right so we've got some catchup to do, but I'm sticking to the count. We got a 0.786 retrace on sub-subwave 1 and can still make the count. We are getting support off the EMA200 now and I think we can catch up to the pitchfork over the next few days.Comment
Finally playing catchup, anyone still in this one with me? Requiring some patience!Comment
This is the sort of catchup we were looking for - 156k resistance broken with some good volume!Currently up 19%. We need to watch BTC very carefully in the next days in case it could ruin our trade.
Comment
Really nice catchup, beyond the expected position of my sub-subwave 3. We haven't seen this volume since 12th Sept. Bear in mind that we will still likely retrace back to the base of the pitchfork and possibly retest the 156k resistance, before continuing up to the target exit around 197k. You could try to trade that retrace, but I'm not good enough to do it!The patient will be rewarded..
Trade closed: target reached
My sell orders filled at at 195.4k for around a 47% gain. I'm not sure the 5 is in but we got to my target and I'm sticking to it and taking the profit. If that was the 5 at a top of 196.5k then it will be scary close to the predicted 197k.Anyone get a better entry? - 57% gains available so far if someone really nailed it.
Watch out for a new analysis once we get a retrace and an updated count - probably in a couple of days. I'll aim to re-enter lower and ride the next wave before platform launch.
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