Long

HBAR to Repeat its Prior Move?

Updated

This is a simple theory that can be divided into two parallel uptrends on the weekly:

one that acts as support
another that acts as resistance

When it first broke out of parallel support, it made a 2.5x measured move up, and then dropped back down near the 1.5x measurement, forming what would become parallel resistance after making a higher set of highs, dropping back down to 1.5x, and then losing it to fall back into parallel support.

After falling into parallel support, it tested the top of it and failed to move above, causing it to drop down to the bottom. When it did this it moved below support's bottom, but when it failed to remain below, it saw a strong and fast move back to the top of parallel support for another attempt to move above. This also failed, leading to a move back down towards the bottom.

Now that it has made 3 attempts at bottom, each attempt weaker than the previous, it should be ready for a 3rd attempt at the top of parallel support.

I expect it will break above it, as it has already failed to break below.

TP 1 and 2 are likely targets if it does this, but we could also see a repeat of its prior move sending back into and towards the top of its parallel resistance.

An example of how they are similar:

Note

FYI - there is also a possibility it is repeating the pattern from its peak in preparation for a bearish move back down to bottom:

Will update if the bear scenario becomes the more likely one, sticking with the bullish one for now.

Note

Reason why bullish scenario is the more likely at this point:

- HBAR has consistently made higher lows and higher highs since the "Google Pump" move from Jan 2020.

A "sea-change" event would be if it made a lower high and then a lower low. I am expecting we at least get a lower high, if not a same or higher high than the previous

Trade active

Making good progress so far, want to see it get above the green box to continue up towards the red box. Imho, it needs to get and hold above 10-11 cents. If we do see any strong dips, I prefer to see us hold the bottom of the green box, even better if it holds weekly support (not drawn here, but around 5.3-5.4 cents):

Trade active

Reminder that this is what occurred last time, should the repeated move continue to be similar - so even if we dropped back below 5 cents for a bit I wouldn't be concerned:

Trade active

Back at the bottom of the parallel support, waiting to see if we drop into the yellow box for a double bottom or if we hold here:

Trade active

Here's another related idea for the HBAR/BTC pairing that would also support a strong move up around the corner:

And, below is the latest on this chart following the 3rd touch at bottom of parallel support. Have not gotten a move down into the yellow box yet and it's possible we don't see one - need to get and hold above top of parallel support (or 10-12 cents) to support the idea of the bigger move up:

Note

Also, here's a normal horizontal weekly support and resistance chart for comparison, it needs to get/hold above top of weekly support, and break above the falling wedge pattern to see a move back into weekly resistance around 29-30 cents:

Trade active

Update - getting closer to the crucial area to break here. I've been wary of the possibility of a brief and major dip at some point either before or just after breaking it - it may or may not occur. Apparently a bunch of short orders around the 10 cent area, but they could get squeezed. We'll see and will keep this updated either way:

Note

Note that I adjusted the targets to the right since it has taken longer to break, which moves them up a bit. The longer it takes the higher those targets move

Trade active

Update - finally moved above parallel support, need to hold above it to move towards parallel resistance and targets. HBAR / BTC pair is still trying to get out of its bottom and needs to get back above 195-200, and then 235 for both to really run hard.

Note

Update: we've tested both sides of the parallel support now, you can draw a perfect outer channel from past wick highs and lows to present - it's near do or die time for HBAR, preferably hold the outer channel and get back into the inner one

Note

Didn't expect it to happen that quick, boom:

dudebruhwhoa

Also on:

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.