Weekly copper market review 11/30/2020.
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER
Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.4010 per pound, the highest value since late 2013.
Speculative trading is pushing copper prices higher, with net positions of the net commitments of traders at +68K being on historical highs.
Copper stocks are historically low and declining. They stand at 317706 MT, a decrease of more than 3%, or nearly 10,000 MT. Inventories in Shanghai have fallen by 74.5% since the end of March, and given the forecast deficit of the red metal, the trend should continue in the coming months.
Last week, the US and Euro zone manufacturing PMIs came out at 56.7 and 53.6 respectively. On Monday, China's Manufacturing PMI came out at 52.1. This confirms the good resilience of the manufacturing sector in general, as a reminder a figure above 50 indicates an expansion of the sector. The Euro zone and the US followed an 8th month of expansion and China a 9th.
Internationally, the prospect of Janet Yellen, former FED president, becoming Secretary of the Treasury in Joe Biden's future administration, and the hope of a vaccine is fuelling markets. Many countries are preparing vaccination campaigns. Investors are also anticipating a massive stimulus package, with increased government spending, which is weakening the dollar. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 91.790.
While waiting for a vaccine, the pandemic is not weakening. We have just passed 62 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.460 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 267,000 deaths and more than 13 million cases.
ECONOMIC RESULTS
- Last week, manufacturing PMIs in the Euro-Zone came out down to 53.6 in November from 54.8 in October. U.S. manufacturing PMIs rose to 56.7 in November from 53.4 in October.
- On Monday, China's manufacturing PMIs stood at 52.1 in November compared with 51.4 in October.
- On Tuesday, Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI and Inflation, U.S. Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI.
- On Wednesday, Euro zone unemployment and U.S. job creation.
- Thursday, retail sales in the Euro zone, U.S. unemployment registrations.
- Friday, the report on U.S. employment and industrial orders
CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS
- London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 150775 MT from 157350 MT last week.
- Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange decreased to 92912 MT from 96766 MT the previous week.
- Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were down to 74019 MT from 74290 MT the previous week.
- Total copper stocks were down to 317706 MT compared to 328406 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 91.790, and the trend is still bearish. This is the first close below the 92 resistance level in almost 2 1/2 years. The presumed appointment of Janet Yellen as U.S. Treasury Secretary and Joe Biden's talk of a massive $3 trillion support package weighed on the Dollar. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. In addition, U.S. unemployment figures, consumer confidence indexes and inflation figures disappointed last week.
A low Dollar is generally favorable to the Dollar-denominated commodities markets.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER
Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.4010 per pound, the highest value since late 2013.
Speculative trading is pushing copper prices higher, with net positions of the net commitments of traders at +68K being on historical highs.
Copper stocks are historically low and declining. They stand at 317706 MT, a decrease of more than 3%, or nearly 10,000 MT. Inventories in Shanghai have fallen by 74.5% since the end of March, and given the forecast deficit of the red metal, the trend should continue in the coming months.
Last week, the US and Euro zone manufacturing PMIs came out at 56.7 and 53.6 respectively. On Monday, China's Manufacturing PMI came out at 52.1. This confirms the good resilience of the manufacturing sector in general, as a reminder a figure above 50 indicates an expansion of the sector. The Euro zone and the US followed an 8th month of expansion and China a 9th.
Internationally, the prospect of Janet Yellen, former FED president, becoming Secretary of the Treasury in Joe Biden's future administration, and the hope of a vaccine is fuelling markets. Many countries are preparing vaccination campaigns. Investors are also anticipating a massive stimulus package, with increased government spending, which is weakening the dollar. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 91.790.
While waiting for a vaccine, the pandemic is not weakening. We have just passed 62 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.460 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 267,000 deaths and more than 13 million cases.
ECONOMIC RESULTS
- Last week, manufacturing PMIs in the Euro-Zone came out down to 53.6 in November from 54.8 in October. U.S. manufacturing PMIs rose to 56.7 in November from 53.4 in October.
- On Monday, China's manufacturing PMIs stood at 52.1 in November compared with 51.4 in October.
- On Tuesday, Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI and Inflation, U.S. Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI.
- On Wednesday, Euro zone unemployment and U.S. job creation.
- Thursday, retail sales in the Euro zone, U.S. unemployment registrations.
- Friday, the report on U.S. employment and industrial orders
CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS
- London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 150775 MT from 157350 MT last week.
- Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange decreased to 92912 MT from 96766 MT the previous week.
- Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were down to 74019 MT from 74290 MT the previous week.
- Total copper stocks were down to 317706 MT compared to 328406 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 91.790, and the trend is still bearish. This is the first close below the 92 resistance level in almost 2 1/2 years. The presumed appointment of Janet Yellen as U.S. Treasury Secretary and Joe Biden's talk of a massive $3 trillion support package weighed on the Dollar. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. In addition, U.S. unemployment figures, consumer confidence indexes and inflation figures disappointed last week.
A low Dollar is generally favorable to the Dollar-denominated commodities markets.
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