Identifying cyclical opportunities in $HOOD for options

Updated

has been in a bull trend since June of 2022, and its price action has also been decently straight forward.

Notes about 's price action -
1. Hood's cycle lengths from low to low, in this daily chart are not uniform.
2. However the trends in between the swing lows and highs are secular.
3. Hood has been forming base lows instead of V pattern lows.

How I'm trading HOOD.
- Since the trend is bullish it is best to stick with call options looking for confirmation of a cycle low to get long.
- When starts to form a base after a cyclical downtrend look for momentum to enter
- Once identifying a swing high, exit calls and allow the next secular downtrend to play out
- Each cycle consider if the macro tend for is still bullish
- Own shares

** The timing band on this chart is a general area based off of previous cycles I'm expecting a base low and will be looking to get long.

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Interesting candle just opened gapping up to $23 This would mark a very short cycle of 29 days if that was the base for HOOD. Not going to chase this, good place to add shares if you do not have them

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The pop to $23 was instantly sold off. Clear indication that we didn't get a short cycle. Solid price action to wait until ~ day 60 since the last low to load up the next call position.

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Only a few more weeks and will be looking to get long calls again. Hoping to nail this one. Still playing out as expected.

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Looks like we bottomed on day 29! Might be missing the play this time, but that's what the shares are for :-)

Will buy calls on a retest of the 4h SMA. A quick violent move to ~30 would make sense here.

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Rejected right before ATH... Haven't bought calls yet, might have been a fakeout. Still have the possibility we get that rollover into a day 40 low which would make this trade a lot easier. Having shares is the easiest play

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I think we have a clean setup now.

Incredibly despite all the mixed signals I was seeing above ^ we got a clean day 46 cycle high.

The last daily cycle topped day 47.

I'm looking to get long calls at the end of the timing band which would be around day 78. This will be a clean setup for a push to the IPO price into the end of the year.

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Need to post an updated chart that 21 day arrow was actually 47

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That should have been the low day 58 from the last low. However enough technical damage is done to the chart that I'm not going to make this options trade. Added shares

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Market structure has changed. I sold my shares at 20.50. I presume the market cycle is over

Trade active

Will chart the new price action soon. The Japan carry trade price action fit perfectly with the expected price action of this

Trade closed manually

limit_buy_69

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