Long-term Fib Retrace from ATH. Short-term Fib Extension from January 2024 lows.
Top indicator = Relative Strength Index (RSI) Middle indicator = On Balance Volume (OBV Oscillator) Bottom indicator = Directional Movement Index (DMI) VWAP from highest high (yellow)
After coming out of a protracted, multi-year basing (blue), upside price momentum looks to be waning with bearish price to RSI divergence (violet) forming on the 1D time frame.
HOOD volume flows as measured by on-balance-volume (OBVOSC_LB, middle indicator) are extremely constructive and posting historically high levels from price inception at initial IPO.
Given the strength of the bullish trend as measured by the directional movement index (DMI, bottom indicator) price is well cushioned to withstand a pullback and remain positively trending.
EWT counts are speculative and intended as a theoretical guide rather than an absolute path. The 3rd wave up could have the momentum to reach the 1.382(22.51) before meeting an increased potential for pullback into the 4th wave. The VWAP from ATH (yellow) is roughly in confluence with the 0.786 (15.81) and provides an impulsive shelf of support for a retrace as long as price were to consolidate above these respective levels.
The next level of downside support would be the 0.5(13.57) price level and while a breach of this particular level would not invalidate the count by dipping below 2 (10.38) it would invalidate my thesis and close the trade.
Upside price target for a 5th wave would be a 23% move to the upside with consolidation above the longterm Fib level of 0.786 (23.54) by end of July 2024. The secondary, 'reach target' sits 41% percent above current levels at the short-term 1.786 (27.00) Fib level. I would like to see this 1.786 (27.00) level taken out before end of November, 2024.
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