Are we close to peak China pessimism?
President Xi Jinping’s New Year address put paid to hopes of much larger stimulus.
In his address, President Xi pointed to the consolidation and enhancement of the
economic recovery and no signs of a boost from policy coming. Furthermore,
China’s economic growth for 2023 came out at 5.2%, above the central
government’s 5% forecast, which it boasted it was able to achieve without relying
on large stimulus.
China’s real GDP growth to slow further in 2024. Investors' pessimism towards China’s economy could be nearing a peak given recent efforts by policymakers to stabilize sentiment.
Policymakers acting to stabilize sentiment: China’s policymakers are
feeling the need to stabilize investor sentiment and this week have taken two
steps in this direction. First, following a recent State Council meeting, Premier
Li Qiang suggested help is on the way for China’s beleaguered stock market.
Newswire reports suggest this help could include CNY 2.3trn of funds (mainly
from SOEs) to buy Chinese equities to prop up the market. Such a measure
could help put a bottom on investors’ China pessimism. However, such purchases would not address their underlying concerns including a weak residential property market, local government debts, the lack of policy easing, and the risk of another regulatory clampdown.
Second, the PBoC surprised with an RRR cut as well as a cut to its re-lending
and discount rates. While I was expecting cuts to both, the
size and timing were surprising given the recent disappointment of the PBoC
keeping its MLF on hold. The PBoC also sounded dovish suggesting further
room to ease policy given the gap between actual and target prices and the
Fed’s pivot towards easing.
Check out my other ideas:
In his address, President Xi pointed to the consolidation and enhancement of the
economic recovery and no signs of a boost from policy coming. Furthermore,
China’s economic growth for 2023 came out at 5.2%, above the central
government’s 5% forecast, which it boasted it was able to achieve without relying
on large stimulus.
China’s real GDP growth to slow further in 2024. Investors' pessimism towards China’s economy could be nearing a peak given recent efforts by policymakers to stabilize sentiment.
Policymakers acting to stabilize sentiment: China’s policymakers are
feeling the need to stabilize investor sentiment and this week have taken two
steps in this direction. First, following a recent State Council meeting, Premier
Li Qiang suggested help is on the way for China’s beleaguered stock market.
Newswire reports suggest this help could include CNY 2.3trn of funds (mainly
from SOEs) to buy Chinese equities to prop up the market. Such a measure
could help put a bottom on investors’ China pessimism. However, such purchases would not address their underlying concerns including a weak residential property market, local government debts, the lack of policy easing, and the risk of another regulatory clampdown.
Second, the PBoC surprised with an RRR cut as well as a cut to its re-lending
and discount rates. While I was expecting cuts to both, the
size and timing were surprising given the recent disappointment of the PBoC
keeping its MLF on hold. The PBoC also sounded dovish suggesting further
room to ease policy given the gap between actual and target prices and the
Fed’s pivot towards easing.
Check out my other ideas:
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