China's 5Y LPR remains unchanged, what does this mean
On August 21st, the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was lowered from 3.55% to 3.45%, while the 5-year LPR remained at 4.20%. On August 15th, the Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) rate was lowered by 15 basis points (bp). The market had anticipated a 15 bp reduction in the 1-year LPR rate and a 20 bp reduction in the 5-year LPR rate. However, there isn't a clear correlation between the 5Y and 1Y LPR.
The unchanged 5-year LPR rate might imply that the expectations for a rapid and significant rebound in the real estate market in the second half of the year have been erased. A notable observation is that when clear signals of real estate stimulus policies are released, the reduction in the 5-year LPR rate tends to be substantial. Conversely, when real estate stimulus policy signals weaken, the reduction in the 5-year LPR rate falls short of expectations.
By keeping the 5-year LPR rate unchanged, it indicates that, under the overarching trend and context of a downward shift in the real estate market, the policy emphasis is not on stimulating new real estate sales demand. After all, the future of China's real estate will experience a trend distinct from the past three decades, and both supply and demand will gradually transition to a lower level. Whether it's the early repayment of residential loans by residents or the exposure of local debt pressures, they are both triggered by the decline in real estate sales, and debt pressures are transmitted step by step through financing channels. Compared to policies that stimulate the demand side, the main policy focus is on controlling debt pressures on the supply side. Mitigating the debt pressure triggered by the decline in real estate sales is the current policy priority.
The current situation still involves a process of interest rate centralization, and there is still room for downward adjustments in benchmark deposit and lending rates. The main breakthrough points for alleviating debt pressures lie in two areas: easing household debt pressures and resolving local debt risks. Both of these key actions are closely related to the adjustment of benchmark deposit and lending rates.
The unchanged 5-year LPR rate might imply that the expectations for a rapid and significant rebound in the real estate market in the second half of the year have been erased. A notable observation is that when clear signals of real estate stimulus policies are released, the reduction in the 5-year LPR rate tends to be substantial. Conversely, when real estate stimulus policy signals weaken, the reduction in the 5-year LPR rate falls short of expectations.
By keeping the 5-year LPR rate unchanged, it indicates that, under the overarching trend and context of a downward shift in the real estate market, the policy emphasis is not on stimulating new real estate sales demand. After all, the future of China's real estate will experience a trend distinct from the past three decades, and both supply and demand will gradually transition to a lower level. Whether it's the early repayment of residential loans by residents or the exposure of local debt pressures, they are both triggered by the decline in real estate sales, and debt pressures are transmitted step by step through financing channels. Compared to policies that stimulate the demand side, the main policy focus is on controlling debt pressures on the supply side. Mitigating the debt pressure triggered by the decline in real estate sales is the current policy priority.
The current situation still involves a process of interest rate centralization, and there is still room for downward adjustments in benchmark deposit and lending rates. The main breakthrough points for alleviating debt pressures lie in two areas: easing household debt pressures and resolving local debt risks. Both of these key actions are closely related to the adjustment of benchmark deposit and lending rates.
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