Argentina: Back at long term support...
Updated
Risky outlook given fundamental events, but hopefully the slide stops around here. Primary election results scared investors away, and with good reason: peronists came ahead by a big amount (I call bs, election fraud...maybe).
Either way, history proves that growth is not possible without a huge overhaul of labor, social spending, huge tax rates, and the power of the union mafias dwindling.
See: reuters.com/article/us-argentina-politics/argentinas-macri-downgrades-labor-reforms-after-union-pressure-idUSKBN1FL50N
The date this was known, the stock market peaked. Central bank starting taking ridiculous measures ever since, spending money they got from the IMF on futile attempts to prop the peso against the dollar. In the process, killing the stock market advance and eventually devaluating the currency over time, as it was inevitable given the lack of change of fundamentals.
I'd watch as events unfold, if things change for the better, this is a good long term opportunity, but until elections are out of the way by October it won't be certain.
Best of luck for us Argentinians...
Ivan Labrie.
Either way, history proves that growth is not possible without a huge overhaul of labor, social spending, huge tax rates, and the power of the union mafias dwindling.
See: reuters.com/article/us-argentina-politics/argentinas-macri-downgrades-labor-reforms-after-union-pressure-idUSKBN1FL50N
The date this was known, the stock market peaked. Central bank starting taking ridiculous measures ever since, spending money they got from the IMF on futile attempts to prop the peso against the dollar. In the process, killing the stock market advance and eventually devaluating the currency over time, as it was inevitable given the lack of change of fundamentals.
I'd watch as events unfold, if things change for the better, this is a good long term opportunity, but until elections are out of the way by October it won't be certain.
Best of luck for us Argentinians...
Ivan Labrie.
Note
argentinareforms.csis.org/ Good list of reforms that took and didn't take place.
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