IBM Mega Triangle
IBM has been making this triangle chart pattern since 1997 and will forced to a decision point one way or the other by 2026. For some investment strategies, you have to perceive time like a tree. :)
IBM's earnings and sales have been shrinking for many years-- EPS at a rate around 2.5% per year, and SPS at a rate around 0.25% per year. That makes this essentially a depreciating asset in terms of earnings and sales. The dividend over 5% offsets that somewhat, but IBM would need a growth strategy to break out to the upside. Despite technology leadership, the company has struggled to turn its technology into growth.
IBM is still worth trading within the triangle, however. It's certainly worth a buy in the event it should drop to the bottom of the triangle range. I kind of like the idea of owning a piece of IBM's AI, because I think this technology eventually will drive a turnaround story for IBM and a return to earnings and sales growth. Among other things, IBM is partnering with Verizon to use its AI in Verizon's 5g.
IBM will be a sell at triangle top until and unless the slopes of the earnings and sales trendlines begin to turn positive long-term.
IBM's earnings and sales have been shrinking for many years-- EPS at a rate around 2.5% per year, and SPS at a rate around 0.25% per year. That makes this essentially a depreciating asset in terms of earnings and sales. The dividend over 5% offsets that somewhat, but IBM would need a growth strategy to break out to the upside. Despite technology leadership, the company has struggled to turn its technology into growth.
IBM is still worth trading within the triangle, however. It's certainly worth a buy in the event it should drop to the bottom of the triangle range. I kind of like the idea of owning a piece of IBM's AI, because I think this technology eventually will drive a turnaround story for IBM and a return to earnings and sales growth. Among other things, IBM is partnering with Verizon to use its AI in Verizon's 5g.
IBM will be a sell at triangle top until and unless the slopes of the earnings and sales trendlines begin to turn positive long-term.
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