$IBRX A Step Towards Better Immunotherapy

While most oncological treatments focus on bombarding the body with toxic materials in hopes of killing cancerous cells, ImmunityBio, Inc. (Nasdaq: IBRX) utilizes immunology in order to find a solution. Its treatments usually focus on catalyzing NK cells, and T cells, which then kill cancerous cells. Currently, IBRX has a chance to showcase one of its treatments due to its upcoming catalyst. IBRX has a PDUFA action date of May 23, 2023, for QUILT 3.032 BLA. In short, the FDA will decide if it grants IBRX a biological license for QUILT 3.032. In Layman’s terms, if IBRX obtains this license then IBRX will be granted market access which will allow the company to start realizing revenues. In light of this, IBRX stock could be one to buy in anticipation of the FDA’s decision.

IBRX Fundamentals

QUILT 3.032 is a bladder cancer treatment that boosts the immune system and allows the body to fend off cancerous cells. That said, QUILT 3.032 has proven itself as an effective treatment. According to data published in NEJM Evidence 58 out of 82 patients exposed to QUILT 3.032 experienced a complete response, which basically means that all signs of cancer were eliminated in 71% of the patients. These are significant margins from an oncology standpoint, and will probably play a role in the FDA’s decision concerning whether or not to approve QUILT 3.032’s MLA.

In the US, bladder cancer is the fourth most common solid-diagnosed malignancy in men and twelfth in women. Additionally, the American Cancer Society estimates that there will be 82,290 new cases in 2023. Since it is such a common cancer, demand for its treatment is also high – meaning that if QUILT 3.032 enters the market, it is not likely to experience any shortage in demand.

In case QUILT 3.032 is approved by the FDA, a short squeeze may occur in IBRX stock given its high short data. Currently, IBRX has a short interest of 24% and a 100% utilization rate. With investors anticipating the FDA’s decision regarding the company’s bladder cancer treatment, IBRX stock may be an attractive buy at current levels.

Currently, IBRX’s biggest risk is its cash burn rate as its operating expenses ballooned from $95 million to $111 million YoY in Q1 2023. This risk is compounded by the fact that IBRX currently has 88 million in cash on hand at the moment. If the QUILT 3.032 BLA is approved then the dilution risk may be mitigated since the company would raise capital at a higher PPS which would limit the extent of the dilution.

IBRX Financials

According to its Q1 2023 report, IBRX’s total assets decreased from $362 million to $343 million QoQ. Its current cash and cash equivalents also decreased from $104 million to only $88 million. On the other hand, its liabilities increased from $812 million to $875 million during the same period.

On a brighter note, its grant revenues increased from $14 thousand to $360 thousand YoY. That said, its operating expenses increased from $95 million to $111 million YoY. As a result, its net loss increased from $102 million to $116 million.

If QUILT 3.032’s BLA is approved, then IBRX will become capable of producing product revenue which will assist IBRX’s finances and will lower the likelihood of dilution for IBRX stock moving forward.

Technical Analysis

IBRX is a neutral trend trading in a sideways channel between its $2.78 support and its $3.69 resistance below the 200 MA. Looking at the indicators, IBRX is trading below the 200, 50, and 21 MAs. Meanwhile, the MACD is neutral and the RSI is approaching oversold at 38. It is worth noting that there is a gap near $6.1 that could be filled if IBRX’s bladder cancer treatment is approved by the FDA.

As for its fundamentals, IBRX has a major upcoming catalyst in the PDUFA action which is set to take place on May 23rd. Since the company would be able to launch its treatment if approved, the IBRX stock price could soar on positive news. With the stock trading near support, investors could find a good entry at the current PPS in anticipation of the FDA’s decision.

IBRX Forecast

The FDA’s decision regarding QUILT 3.032’s BLA will come out on May 23. That said, QUILT 3.032 produced impressive results in its trials. In one study, 58 out of 82 patients experienced a complete response which is extremely significant since it means that all traces of cancer were gone. Due to those trials, IBRX’s BLA is likely to be approved which would grant QUILT 3.032 market access and cause IBRX stock to soar given its high short interest.
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