New Agriculture Commodity Bull Market
The Entire Agriculture Complex is in the process of breaking out, and not just breaking out, but breaking out of a 12-year old downtrend. I will be posting more charts showing the developing bull market in ag and other commodities, and how I'm expressing that outlook in the portfolio.
In terms of the macro inflation cycle, I think we are somewhere similar to early 2002. I.E. We're fresh out of a cycle low for inflation and commodities which means the new bull market has already started, but it can only be seen in momentum, volume for particular commodities (copper & wheat), and smart money moving into commodities the past few months. By the time price is showing a technical breakout smart money will be selling into volume from moving average breakout chasers. That being said, this commodity bull market can last a long time but it won't come without its volatility. it will be important not to chase extreme moves, but rather be patient and wait to buy on pullbacks. Experience has taught us to wait for weakness to buy and to sell into strength.
If you're not convinced Agriculture is breaking out, look at
IPI Intrepid Potash 
CORN Sugar.
With the assumption that inflation is in the 2nd or 3rd inning of the inflation cycle, stocks like
ICL still have a lot higher to go even though its moved a lot off of its cycle low. Notice that the cycle low was right at the opening original price 14 years ago. The long-term structure of ICL's price trends shows a well-managed and healthy company that does well in commodity inflation cycles and shareholders haven't been diluted to death in a long-term bear market.
Additionally,ICL is a similar company to IPI intrepid potash, but it is better managed and more diversified and internationally-oriented which gives it less market risk and an advantage in terms of globalism-accelerating and Israel having a security and investment advantage on the global market. This being said, ICL still has 500% upside over a trend-duration to get to a new all-time high, while IPI potentially has much more than that (1000%+) should it ever overcome the long-term bear market and equity dilution.
Not an equity analyst or licensed professional. Do your own DD.
In terms of the macro inflation cycle, I think we are somewhere similar to early 2002. I.E. We're fresh out of a cycle low for inflation and commodities which means the new bull market has already started, but it can only be seen in momentum, volume for particular commodities (copper & wheat), and smart money moving into commodities the past few months. By the time price is showing a technical breakout smart money will be selling into volume from moving average breakout chasers. That being said, this commodity bull market can last a long time but it won't come without its volatility. it will be important not to chase extreme moves, but rather be patient and wait to buy on pullbacks. Experience has taught us to wait for weakness to buy and to sell into strength.
If you're not convinced Agriculture is breaking out, look at
IPI Intrepid Potash CORN Sugar. With the assumption that inflation is in the 2nd or 3rd inning of the inflation cycle, stocks like
ICL still have a lot higher to go even though its moved a lot off of its cycle low. Notice that the cycle low was right at the opening original price 14 years ago. The long-term structure of ICL's price trends shows a well-managed and healthy company that does well in commodity inflation cycles and shareholders haven't been diluted to death in a long-term bear market. Additionally,
ICL is a similar company to IPI intrepid potash, but it is better managed and more diversified and internationally-oriented which gives it less market risk and an advantage in terms of globalism-accelerating and Israel having a security and investment advantage on the global market. This being said, ICL still has 500% upside over a trend-duration to get to a new all-time high, while IPI potentially has much more than that (1000%+) should it ever overcome the long-term bear market and equity dilution. Not an equity analyst or licensed professional. Do your own DD.
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