How A Rise In Initial Jobless Claims Could Trigger A Recession
This chart aims to delve into the probability of the next U.S. led recession beginning this year. Lets get started.
This chart takes the S&P 500 Index (America's main market index) in yellow and compares it to the Initial Jobless Claims Data (direct from the Federal Reserve) in grey. We also take two very standard moving averages of the Initial Jobless Claims data set which are the 50 week moving average and 100 week moving average. What we can see is that as the 50 week moving average crosses over and above the 100 week moving average (Indicated by the vertical red line) this confirms a trend of rising initial jobless claims has begun and a recession is imminent. This moving average crossover preceded the 2000 recession and the 2008 recession and it is getting close to crossing over again now, hence the title of this post "How A Rise In Initial Jobless Claims Could Trigger A Recession".
Along With this data I have also shown a common pattern that the S&P 500 Index displays as it is topping out. This is the infamous volatile double top formation which occurred in 2000, 2008 and is happening again now as we speak on a massive scale. Add to that my related article linked below that outlines how the 3 month treasury yield is predicting the next recession and you can begin to see multiple factors lining up all pointing to the same recessionary outcome.
Combining all of this information we determine it is likely that the next U.S. led global recession could begin as soon as October this year (2019). A recession of course means two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, so if the first negative quarter is Q4 2019 and the second negative quarter is Q1 2020 then the data required to officially confirm and announce a recession will not be available to the public until the end of Q2 2020. Meaning if the next recession starts in October of 2019 we will not officially know about it until mid 2020.
Prediction: The next U.S. led global recession could start as soon as October 2019 and wont be officially acknowledged and announced until mid 2020.
This is not financial advice, just general economic analysis.
This chart takes the S&P 500 Index (America's main market index) in yellow and compares it to the Initial Jobless Claims Data (direct from the Federal Reserve) in grey. We also take two very standard moving averages of the Initial Jobless Claims data set which are the 50 week moving average and 100 week moving average. What we can see is that as the 50 week moving average crosses over and above the 100 week moving average (Indicated by the vertical red line) this confirms a trend of rising initial jobless claims has begun and a recession is imminent. This moving average crossover preceded the 2000 recession and the 2008 recession and it is getting close to crossing over again now, hence the title of this post "How A Rise In Initial Jobless Claims Could Trigger A Recession".
Along With this data I have also shown a common pattern that the S&P 500 Index displays as it is topping out. This is the infamous volatile double top formation which occurred in 2000, 2008 and is happening again now as we speak on a massive scale. Add to that my related article linked below that outlines how the 3 month treasury yield is predicting the next recession and you can begin to see multiple factors lining up all pointing to the same recessionary outcome.
Combining all of this information we determine it is likely that the next U.S. led global recession could begin as soon as October this year (2019). A recession of course means two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, so if the first negative quarter is Q4 2019 and the second negative quarter is Q1 2020 then the data required to officially confirm and announce a recession will not be available to the public until the end of Q2 2020. Meaning if the next recession starts in October of 2019 we will not officially know about it until mid 2020.
Prediction: The next U.S. led global recession could start as soon as October 2019 and wont be officially acknowledged and announced until mid 2020.
This is not financial advice, just general economic analysis.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.