IEF Short
To begin, I am not a Seasoned Trader; I use this blog for:
1. Record keeping; &
2. Formalizing my thoughts
a. If I can't explain simply here, I shldn't engage
To begin, my Rules of Engagement ( RoE ) to identify an upside of +3 to 1 Risk to Reward ( “R/R” ); in this case it may yield a 3.1- 3.94 R/R.
• Asset | IEF ( iShares 7-20 Year US Gov’t Bond )
• Type | Equity
o Alt. Type 1 | Option
• Position | Short
• Entry | $ 100.46
• Stop Loss ( SL ) | $ 102.05
• Bring SL to Zero | n/a
• Target | $ 94.19(-)
• Exp. Time Horizon | ~ x2 FED meetings so Mar-end
• Allocation | 5.00%
• R/R | 3.1- 3.94(+)
To begin, I will highlight the reasons why I am apprehensive about the trade ( the Con’s ) & finish up with the reasons why I’m interested in the position ( the Pro’s ). The issues / thoughts that make me uneasy ( the Con’s ) are:
• I structured it to allow for further moderate appreciation
o I “may” miss hitting the top but I have 1.5 wk’s for that too play out
Now, the reasons I am interested in this position ( the Pro’s ):
• In my blog, you can see the appendix whereby the 10Y can hover lower than the Fed Funds Rate (Upper) by 100 bps before it turns; we are there now
• The FED is either going to raise (25 – 50 bps) or stay fixed in 1.5 wk’s
o I believe they will raise; thus pushing the market down
• Although the date range for the 10Yr Yield goes further, I am playing with the IEF (ETF) so only goes back to July 2002. Nevertheless, that posts a 1.95 standard deviated move which I’ll see as ~2 if it hits my entry & thus happy with that
To summarize, the Tea Leaves & history is telling me to short albeit I may miss it.
Financial Disclaimer | To reiterate, I’m not a Financial Advisor. If you engage based on the contents herein, you will lose money. If you interpret that mean by doing the opposite you will make money, that’s incorrect; you will also lose money.
Thanks for your time; I hope you have a lovely day.
1. Record keeping; &
2. Formalizing my thoughts
a. If I can't explain simply here, I shldn't engage
To begin, my Rules of Engagement ( RoE ) to identify an upside of +3 to 1 Risk to Reward ( “R/R” ); in this case it may yield a 3.1- 3.94 R/R.
• Asset | IEF ( iShares 7-20 Year US Gov’t Bond )
• Type | Equity
o Alt. Type 1 | Option
• Position | Short
• Entry | $ 100.46
• Stop Loss ( SL ) | $ 102.05
• Bring SL to Zero | n/a
• Target | $ 94.19(-)
• Exp. Time Horizon | ~ x2 FED meetings so Mar-end
• Allocation | 5.00%
• R/R | 3.1- 3.94(+)
To begin, I will highlight the reasons why I am apprehensive about the trade ( the Con’s ) & finish up with the reasons why I’m interested in the position ( the Pro’s ). The issues / thoughts that make me uneasy ( the Con’s ) are:
• I structured it to allow for further moderate appreciation
o I “may” miss hitting the top but I have 1.5 wk’s for that too play out
Now, the reasons I am interested in this position ( the Pro’s ):
• In my blog, you can see the appendix whereby the 10Y can hover lower than the Fed Funds Rate (Upper) by 100 bps before it turns; we are there now
• The FED is either going to raise (25 – 50 bps) or stay fixed in 1.5 wk’s
o I believe they will raise; thus pushing the market down
• Although the date range for the 10Yr Yield goes further, I am playing with the IEF (ETF) so only goes back to July 2002. Nevertheless, that posts a 1.95 standard deviated move which I’ll see as ~2 if it hits my entry & thus happy with that
To summarize, the Tea Leaves & history is telling me to short albeit I may miss it.
Financial Disclaimer | To reiterate, I’m not a Financial Advisor. If you engage based on the contents herein, you will lose money. If you interpret that mean by doing the opposite you will make money, that’s incorrect; you will also lose money.
Thanks for your time; I hope you have a lovely day.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.