Price Action Analysis
IP recently declined to the $3.67 level, effectively sweeping external liquidity by triggering stop-loss orders below key support. This move was followed by a strong recovery, with price fully absorbing the bearish momentum and closing within the global trading range. This price action resulted in a Market Structure Shift (Change of Character, or ChoCH), indicating a potential reversal from bearish to bullish sentiment. The ChoCH suggests institutional buying interest, as the market rejected further downside and reestablished bullish structure.
However, caution is warranted. Bitcoin (
BTC), a key market driver, may experience a corrective move lower, potentially influencing IP’s price action. As such, immediate entries are premature without further confirmation of bullish momentum.
Key Levels and Trade Setup
Break of Structure (BoS) at $4.28
The $4.28 level on the daily timeframe is pivotal, representing a potential Break of Structure (BoS). A decisive close above this level would confirm bullish continuation, signaling the start of a significant upward move. Should this occur,IP is likely to target the following resistance zones:
$6.61: Initial target, likely aligning with prior swing highs or liquidity pools.
$6.98: Secondary target, potentially coinciding with a Fair Value Gap (FVG) or institutional sell-side liquidity.
$7.46: Final target, representing a high-probability zone for profit-taking.
Entry Confirmation
To ensure a high-probability trade, the following conditions must be met:
Daily BoS Confirmation: A clean break and close above $4.28 on the daily chart, supported by elevated trading volume.
4-Hour Timeframe Validation: A breakout above $4.28 on the 4-hour (4H) or higher timeframe, ideally accompanied by a bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG). An FVG forming on the 4H chart post-breakout would serve as an optimal entry zone, minimizing risk by aligning with institutional order flow.
Pullback to FVG: Post-breakout, a retracement to a 4H bullish FVG (e.g., $4.20–$4.25) that holds as support would confirm the setup for a long position.
Trade Execution
Set Alerts: Configure price alerts at $4.28 to monitor for a daily or 4H breakout. Ensure alerts trigger on a candle close above this level to confirm BoS.
Risk Management: Risk no more than 1–2% of trading capital per trade. Position size should be calculated based on a stop-loss placed below the FVG or recent swing low (e.g., $4.00–$4.10), targeting a minimum risk-reward ratio of 5:1.
Exit Strategy: Take partial profits at $6.61 (50–70% of position) and trail stops for the remaining position toward $6.98 and $7.46, monitoring for signs of rejection or bearish structure at these levels.
Bitcoin Correlation
GivenBTC’s influence on altcoin price action, monitor its key levels closely. A potential corrective move in BTC could lead IP to retest lower supports (e.g., $3.85 or $3.67). Set a secondary alert at $3.85 to watch for a bounce in case of a broader market pullback. Conversely, a stabilization or bullish breakout in BTC would enhance the likelihood of IP’s bullish setup materializing.
Conclusion
IP presents a compelling technical setup, with a ChoCH at $3.67 signaling a potential bullish reversal and $4.28 as the critical level for BoS confirmation. Traders should set alerts at $4.28, await a clean 4H or daily breakout with FVG formation, and execute entries with disciplined risk management. Monitoring BTC’s price action is essential to avoid adverse market-wide corrections. This setup offers a high-probability opportunity for significant upside, provided the outlined conditions are met.
IP recently declined to the $3.67 level, effectively sweeping external liquidity by triggering stop-loss orders below key support. This move was followed by a strong recovery, with price fully absorbing the bearish momentum and closing within the global trading range. This price action resulted in a Market Structure Shift (Change of Character, or ChoCH), indicating a potential reversal from bearish to bullish sentiment. The ChoCH suggests institutional buying interest, as the market rejected further downside and reestablished bullish structure.However, caution is warranted. Bitcoin (
BTC), a key market driver, may experience a corrective move lower, potentially influencing IP’s price action. As such, immediate entries are premature without further confirmation of bullish momentum.Key Levels and Trade Setup
Break of Structure (BoS) at $4.28
The $4.28 level on the daily timeframe is pivotal, representing a potential Break of Structure (BoS). A decisive close above this level would confirm bullish continuation, signaling the start of a significant upward move. Should this occur,
IP is likely to target the following resistance zones:$6.61: Initial target, likely aligning with prior swing highs or liquidity pools.
$6.98: Secondary target, potentially coinciding with a Fair Value Gap (FVG) or institutional sell-side liquidity.
$7.46: Final target, representing a high-probability zone for profit-taking.
Entry Confirmation
To ensure a high-probability trade, the following conditions must be met:
Daily BoS Confirmation: A clean break and close above $4.28 on the daily chart, supported by elevated trading volume.
4-Hour Timeframe Validation: A breakout above $4.28 on the 4-hour (4H) or higher timeframe, ideally accompanied by a bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG). An FVG forming on the 4H chart post-breakout would serve as an optimal entry zone, minimizing risk by aligning with institutional order flow.
Pullback to FVG: Post-breakout, a retracement to a 4H bullish FVG (e.g., $4.20–$4.25) that holds as support would confirm the setup for a long position.
Trade Execution
Set Alerts: Configure price alerts at $4.28 to monitor for a daily or 4H breakout. Ensure alerts trigger on a candle close above this level to confirm BoS.
Risk Management: Risk no more than 1–2% of trading capital per trade. Position size should be calculated based on a stop-loss placed below the FVG or recent swing low (e.g., $4.00–$4.10), targeting a minimum risk-reward ratio of 5:1.
Exit Strategy: Take partial profits at $6.61 (50–70% of position) and trail stops for the remaining position toward $6.98 and $7.46, monitoring for signs of rejection or bearish structure at these levels.
Bitcoin Correlation
Given
BTC’s influence on altcoin price action, monitor its key levels closely. A potential corrective move in BTC could lead IP to retest lower supports (e.g., $3.85 or $3.67). Set a secondary alert at $3.85 to watch for a bounce in case of a broader market pullback. Conversely, a stabilization or bullish breakout in BTC would enhance the likelihood of IP’s bullish setup materializing.Conclusion
IP presents a compelling technical setup, with a ChoCH at $3.67 signaling a potential bullish reversal and $4.28 as the critical level for BoS confirmation. Traders should set alerts at $4.28, await a clean 4H or daily breakout with FVG formation, and execute entries with disciplined risk management. Monitoring BTC’s price action is essential to avoid adverse market-wide corrections. This setup offers a high-probability opportunity for significant upside, provided the outlined conditions are met.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Almenio_WTF
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.