IQ flipping key technical indicators for bull run
Introduction
I have been watching IQ on and off for almost its whole life and after a few initial long term entries and swing trades I have left it alone. It is beginning to flip some switches for me that suggest this is going to time to be a whole lot more attentive. IQ has a relatively short life to look for long term signals and so some of these charts have particular time frames and settings. This was part of my beginning of the month analysis I do when I sort through my watchlist so I don't have new positions on right now but I will over the next couple of days.
EMA Ribbon
The chart on the left is set to two weeks and displays the EMA ribbon. I would prefer to use the monthly time period or even the three week but the full ribbon doens't show except on the two week setting, so here we are. The main chart texts hits the high points, namely that the price action with only a day left has found strong support on the two week ribbon and the EMA ribbon is finally starting to unfurl bullishly. It takes a lot of pumps to get the 20 to cross bullishly over the 55 EMA and it finally happened this period.
Volume Profile
The right side has what I call my "volume and breadth" chart as I use it to look for price action to go coast to coast (or edge to edge) on the various indicators, and it is anchored by volume analysis. The first "edge to edge" we look for is for it to go from one value area to the point of control and if it finds support we look for price action to go the other value area. Historically we see that would be about a 2x. We can see that price action fell short on two attempts and if you were not a greedy little piggie and you took profit 5% below the value area you would have had a great exits. This sets up a key point: during an full blown bull market the price action has to mount the upper value area and find support on it repeatedly. For confirmation that we are in an uptrend I would love to see the price action move above and maintain above the upper value area and see the Point of Control move up to the node at $22 and the lower value area move up to the current point of control at $18. This may take several months to develop. When the price action goes back into the value area there is a chance that it will return to the point of control. and from there the lower value area
Ichimoku Cloud
Almost as a side show at this point is the fact the ichimoku cloud has turned green and is beginning to thicken. At this point it is just another confirmation signal and I don't think it gives us enough for full blown cloud analysis. As price action gets above the cloud we can start looking for T-K Crosses. When the volume profile upper value area and cloud are in the same vicinity it is a sign that the move has a lot of support. When the price action and cloud get high above the upper volume area we are in full blown bubble territory. It is my plan to get into the bulk of my position before or as that happens. You can see that happen on bitcoin on the daily chart here.
On Balance Volume
I often have the red fast EMA at 10, the blue medium at 20, and the slow EMA in green to 100 period but that doesn't provide any real information except that volume action is above the slow ema. As such I set the OBV EMAs to 25, 50 and 75 which has some prima facie validity as common sense settings. On these settings we see that the OBV has finally tested the slow EMA as support and after some activity, established a bullish ordering of the OBV, fast, medium and slow EMAS. This bullish ordering clears up a technical limitation that would prevent more cautious investors with a mature understanding of volume for going for long term holds.
MACD
The chart below is set to the one month and shows the default MACD EMAs. I don't bother to show the full MACD w/ histogram becausae it doesn't really exist. THere is only a couple of period on the signal line so that isn't helpful at all. We clearly see the price action is causing the EMAS to be cents away from a cross and price action has tested both EMAs as support. This still has a full month to develop though.
What I am doing
That was a whole lot of analysis to get to my personal strategy. With everything pointing to a bullish set up I can now look at buying dips with confidence for a long term holds. The places to buy are going to be any time price action has popped out the daily bollinger band (in yellow) and definitely any time it pops below the baseline of the weekly bollinger band (in blue). The weekly bollinger band doesn't have the lower limit because where we are going, we don't need it, perhaps for years. Seeing it below or finding support on the weekly baseline is also going to be a place where I buy call options, especially with bullishness on other indicators like the MACD or RSI (Not show).
Of course, I am not qualified to give financial advice and this is just me developing a more robust battle plan for myself.
I have been watching IQ on and off for almost its whole life and after a few initial long term entries and swing trades I have left it alone. It is beginning to flip some switches for me that suggest this is going to time to be a whole lot more attentive. IQ has a relatively short life to look for long term signals and so some of these charts have particular time frames and settings. This was part of my beginning of the month analysis I do when I sort through my watchlist so I don't have new positions on right now but I will over the next couple of days.
EMA Ribbon
The chart on the left is set to two weeks and displays the EMA ribbon. I would prefer to use the monthly time period or even the three week but the full ribbon doens't show except on the two week setting, so here we are. The main chart texts hits the high points, namely that the price action with only a day left has found strong support on the two week ribbon and the EMA ribbon is finally starting to unfurl bullishly. It takes a lot of pumps to get the 20 to cross bullishly over the 55 EMA and it finally happened this period.
Volume Profile
The right side has what I call my "volume and breadth" chart as I use it to look for price action to go coast to coast (or edge to edge) on the various indicators, and it is anchored by volume analysis. The first "edge to edge" we look for is for it to go from one value area to the point of control and if it finds support we look for price action to go the other value area. Historically we see that would be about a 2x. We can see that price action fell short on two attempts and if you were not a greedy little piggie and you took profit 5% below the value area you would have had a great exits. This sets up a key point: during an full blown bull market the price action has to mount the upper value area and find support on it repeatedly. For confirmation that we are in an uptrend I would love to see the price action move above and maintain above the upper value area and see the Point of Control move up to the node at $22 and the lower value area move up to the current point of control at $18. This may take several months to develop. When the price action goes back into the value area there is a chance that it will return to the point of control. and from there the lower value area
Ichimoku Cloud
Almost as a side show at this point is the fact the ichimoku cloud has turned green and is beginning to thicken. At this point it is just another confirmation signal and I don't think it gives us enough for full blown cloud analysis. As price action gets above the cloud we can start looking for T-K Crosses. When the volume profile upper value area and cloud are in the same vicinity it is a sign that the move has a lot of support. When the price action and cloud get high above the upper volume area we are in full blown bubble territory. It is my plan to get into the bulk of my position before or as that happens. You can see that happen on bitcoin on the daily chart here.
On Balance Volume
I often have the red fast EMA at 10, the blue medium at 20, and the slow EMA in green to 100 period but that doesn't provide any real information except that volume action is above the slow ema. As such I set the OBV EMAs to 25, 50 and 75 which has some prima facie validity as common sense settings. On these settings we see that the OBV has finally tested the slow EMA as support and after some activity, established a bullish ordering of the OBV, fast, medium and slow EMAS. This bullish ordering clears up a technical limitation that would prevent more cautious investors with a mature understanding of volume for going for long term holds.
MACD
The chart below is set to the one month and shows the default MACD EMAs. I don't bother to show the full MACD w/ histogram becausae it doesn't really exist. THere is only a couple of period on the signal line so that isn't helpful at all. We clearly see the price action is causing the EMAS to be cents away from a cross and price action has tested both EMAs as support. This still has a full month to develop though.
What I am doing
That was a whole lot of analysis to get to my personal strategy. With everything pointing to a bullish set up I can now look at buying dips with confidence for a long term holds. The places to buy are going to be any time price action has popped out the daily bollinger band (in yellow) and definitely any time it pops below the baseline of the weekly bollinger band (in blue). The weekly bollinger band doesn't have the lower limit because where we are going, we don't need it, perhaps for years. Seeing it below or finding support on the weekly baseline is also going to be a place where I buy call options, especially with bullishness on other indicators like the MACD or RSI (Not show).
Of course, I am not qualified to give financial advice and this is just me developing a more robust battle plan for myself.
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