For the past 7 weeks or so, the hypothetical price path drawn on the main chart has played out reasonably well. It wasn't intended to play out perfectly.
Instead, it was intended to show merely that price could continue chopping sideways within a range until the economic problems implied by the yield curves begin to unfold.
As described in the above post: "On the larger scale, price is trapped between the blue rectangular zones of support and resistance. Until these break, not much progress is likely in either direction. Sideways action is likely for the coming weeks."
SquishTrade would like to extend that statement and state that sideways action is possible *until one of the major support / resistance levels containing price for the past year is broken decisively."
The important level to break for bears will be the major supports shown above (lows from 2022 around $162.50 - 162.70, and a Fibonacci level at $170).
Bulls have quite a bit more work, which is surprising given all the bullish takes on equity markets in general lately. But the bullish excitement and violent rallies have been largely contained in NDX, AI-related tech, etc., as everyone probably knows. The red flag is that the Russell 2000 (IWM) and many other stocks simply aren't participating.
In any event, as most readers already know, don't trade based on an arrow drawn on someone's chart—whether that arrow is mine or anyone else's arrow. This is important no matter how experienced the author is or how many certifications the person has. Identify what is happening in the larger context. Find levels. Understand what is happening in shorter and longer-term time frames, and then manage risk.