Will the Nasdaq $IXIC bounce on Wednesday (Fed Rate Hike)?
On the day of the increase most likely the market will go up which is counter-intuitive because when you think about increasing interest rates money becomes more expensive to borrow. So shouldn't stock go down? Usually, that tends to be true, but when there are High rates of inflation investors want to pay less money for a company. P/E values get compressed because the time value of money means that investors need to use a higher discount rate when valuing a company. (Money today is worth more than it does in the future) But when you have high rates of inflation you have to take that into consideration so that when inflation comes down stocks will eventually go up because there will be this uncompression so that's what happens to the stock market.
For the real estate market, this is much easier to understand. When interest rates go higher, homes become more unaffordable in the short term but in the long term the values go down.
Now, if you take a look at the chart, on the last 4 hikes, we saw 4 big green candles on the day of the hike. Also, the RSI indicator shows that the market is currently oversold. So probability-wise, I think we will have a green day on Wednesday but who knows in the mid/long-term... The mid-term and long-term trends are still bearish.
Federal Funds Rate Hike / Nasdaq on that day:
March 16, 2022: 25 points / +3.77%
May 02, 2022: 50 points / +3.19%
June 15, 2022: 75 points / +2.50%
July 27, 2022: 75 points / + 4.06%
For the real estate market, this is much easier to understand. When interest rates go higher, homes become more unaffordable in the short term but in the long term the values go down.
Now, if you take a look at the chart, on the last 4 hikes, we saw 4 big green candles on the day of the hike. Also, the RSI indicator shows that the market is currently oversold. So probability-wise, I think we will have a green day on Wednesday but who knows in the mid/long-term... The mid-term and long-term trends are still bearish.
Federal Funds Rate Hike / Nasdaq on that day:
March 16, 2022: 25 points / +3.77%
May 02, 2022: 50 points / +3.19%
June 15, 2022: 75 points / +2.50%
July 27, 2022: 75 points / + 4.06%
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