Daily Market Update for 11/4
Summary: Chip stocks led the day as investors focused on big tech and growth. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 continued a record winning streak.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Thursday, November 04, 2021
Facts: +0.81%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 82% (w/gap), Body: 65% Green
Good: Continued strong rally with gap up
Bad: Resistance at 16,000, low advance/decline ratio
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low
Candle: Gap up, small upper and lower wicks surround green body
Advance/Decline: 0.55, almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (+0.42%), DJI (-0.09%), RUT (-0.08%), VIX (+2.25%)
Sector List: Technology (XLK +1.56%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.35%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -1.13%) and Financials (XLF -1.31%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways
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Market Overview
Chip stocks led the day as investors focused on big tech and growth. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 continued a record winning streak.
The Nasdaq closed with a +0.81% gain. Including the gap at open, the closing range of 82% is over a green body covering 65% of the candle. The upper and lower wicks are about equal in length. Volume was lower than the previous day, and there were almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The S&P 500 (SPX) ended the day with a +0.42% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.09%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.08%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) rose +2.25%.
Technology (XLK +1.56%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.35%) gained far more than any other sector, topping the sector list for the day. Real Estate (XLRE -1.13%) and Financials (XLF -1.31%) were at the bottom of the sector list.
Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 269,000 for the week compared to the forecast of 275,000. Nonfarm Productivity was lower than expected, and Unit Labor Costs were higher than forecast for Q3.
The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.51% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields declined. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose for another day. Investment Grade (LWD) Corporate Bond prices also rose. Aluminum futures continue to drop, signaling some easing on demand.
The put/call ratio dropped to an overly bullish level of 0.469. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved further in the Extreme Greed range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 107.99. The exposure index at this level also signals overly bullish sentiment and rarely stays this high for more than one week.
Amazon (AMZN) had another big day, gaining +2.75% today. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +1.14% and +0.73%. Apple (AAPL) was the only of the four largest mega-caps to decline, losing -0.35%.
Nvidia (NVDA) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) were the top mega-caps. Nvidia gained a whopping +12.04%. The semiconductor segment gained on optimism after Qualcomm (QCOM) smashed expectations despite a global chip shortage. Netflix (NFLX) was the worst-performing mega-cap of the day, declining -2.89%.
Etsy (ETSY) topped the Daily Update Growth List with a +13.21% climb today. After the pandemic, investors were worried about Etsy's growth ability, but the company showed strong growth and beat street estimates for Q3. Penn National Gaming dropped -21.08% and ended up at the bottom of the growth list. The company is suffering from weak earnings and a sexual misconduct accusation against its CEO.
Datadog (DDOG) shares soared in after-hours trading after an impressive earnings report. The stock was up 12.91%. Peloton (PTON) was an after-hours loser, disappointing investors and lowering guidance. The stock tumbled 30% in after-hours trading.
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Looking ahead
More employment data will be insight tomorrow morning. Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate will be available before the market opens.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa), Honda (HMC), and Johnson Controls (JCI) are some of the earnings reports for Friday.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq climbed to another new all-time high but hit resistance just under the round number 16,000.
The one-day and five-day trend lines point to a continued rally with a +0.44% gain for Friday.
If the index returns to the trend line from the 10/4 low, it would mean a -0.63% decline.
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Wrap-up
There was a clear climb to the 16,000 area that started after the 2p Fed meeting yesterday. Investors seemed to price in the news at just under 16,000 and were satisfied with that level.
Watch out for the overly bullish put/call ratio and the high exposure index among money managers. These levels do not last long and often signal a slight pullback on the horizon. Indeed, the Nasdaq looks extended and is due for some sideways or downward moves.
There is nothing that says the index will move lower, so the expectation for Friday is Sideways.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Thursday, November 04, 2021
Facts: +0.81%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 82% (w/gap), Body: 65% Green
Good: Continued strong rally with gap up
Bad: Resistance at 16,000, low advance/decline ratio
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low
Candle: Gap up, small upper and lower wicks surround green body
Advance/Decline: 0.55, almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (+0.42%), DJI (-0.09%), RUT (-0.08%), VIX (+2.25%)
Sector List: Technology (XLK +1.56%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.35%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -1.13%) and Financials (XLF -1.31%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Market Overview
Chip stocks led the day as investors focused on big tech and growth. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 continued a record winning streak.
The Nasdaq closed with a +0.81% gain. Including the gap at open, the closing range of 82% is over a green body covering 65% of the candle. The upper and lower wicks are about equal in length. Volume was lower than the previous day, and there were almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The S&P 500 (SPX) ended the day with a +0.42% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.09%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.08%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) rose +2.25%.
Technology (XLK +1.56%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.35%) gained far more than any other sector, topping the sector list for the day. Real Estate (XLRE -1.13%) and Financials (XLF -1.31%) were at the bottom of the sector list.
Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 269,000 for the week compared to the forecast of 275,000. Nonfarm Productivity was lower than expected, and Unit Labor Costs were higher than forecast for Q3.
The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.51% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields declined. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose for another day. Investment Grade (LWD) Corporate Bond prices also rose. Aluminum futures continue to drop, signaling some easing on demand.
The put/call ratio dropped to an overly bullish level of 0.469. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved further in the Extreme Greed range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 107.99. The exposure index at this level also signals overly bullish sentiment and rarely stays this high for more than one week.
Amazon (AMZN) had another big day, gaining +2.75% today. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +1.14% and +0.73%. Apple (AAPL) was the only of the four largest mega-caps to decline, losing -0.35%.
Nvidia (NVDA) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) were the top mega-caps. Nvidia gained a whopping +12.04%. The semiconductor segment gained on optimism after Qualcomm (QCOM) smashed expectations despite a global chip shortage. Netflix (NFLX) was the worst-performing mega-cap of the day, declining -2.89%.
Etsy (ETSY) topped the Daily Update Growth List with a +13.21% climb today. After the pandemic, investors were worried about Etsy's growth ability, but the company showed strong growth and beat street estimates for Q3. Penn National Gaming dropped -21.08% and ended up at the bottom of the growth list. The company is suffering from weak earnings and a sexual misconduct accusation against its CEO.
Datadog (DDOG) shares soared in after-hours trading after an impressive earnings report. The stock was up 12.91%. Peloton (PTON) was an after-hours loser, disappointing investors and lowering guidance. The stock tumbled 30% in after-hours trading.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Looking ahead
More employment data will be insight tomorrow morning. Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate will be available before the market opens.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa), Honda (HMC), and Johnson Controls (JCI) are some of the earnings reports for Friday.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq climbed to another new all-time high but hit resistance just under the round number 16,000.
The one-day and five-day trend lines point to a continued rally with a +0.44% gain for Friday.
If the index returns to the trend line from the 10/4 low, it would mean a -0.63% decline.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Wrap-up
There was a clear climb to the 16,000 area that started after the 2p Fed meeting yesterday. Investors seemed to price in the news at just under 16,000 and were satisfied with that level.
Watch out for the overly bullish put/call ratio and the high exposure index among money managers. These levels do not last long and often signal a slight pullback on the horizon. Indeed, the Nasdaq looks extended and is due for some sideways or downward moves.
There is nothing that says the index will move lower, so the expectation for Friday is Sideways.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Website: drewby.com
Twitter: twitter.com/drewrobbins
All ideas are for information purposes only. I may or may not invest in the stocks discussed. Before investing in any stock, do your research and trade using your rules.
Twitter: twitter.com/drewrobbins
All ideas are for information purposes only. I may or may not invest in the stocks discussed. Before investing in any stock, do your research and trade using your rules.
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