2000 vs 2022
Some similarities between 2000 vs 2022
1. Before reaching ATH the index did a very sharp decline of 33%
2. It took the index 17 bars to reach an ATH vs 20 now
3. Found support on 40SMA after 9 months from ATH vs 7 now
4. Mass retail participation
5. .com mania vs crypto mania? (did luna just popped the bubble?)
6. Interest rates were falling back in 2000 vs rising now (tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate)
7. Inflation was not even close back then to what is is now (tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi)
What to wait for
1. Holding or not 40SMA!!!
2. Where RSI, MACD & DMI will head towards next months
3. The index went -18.35% lower than the previous big decline which equals Nasdaq declining just above where the previous wave ended
4. It took the index 23 months by the time it touched for the first time the 40SMA to bottom which means April 2024 just 6 months before the elections
When the bubble burst in 2000 nobody really blamed the "system" like in 09 simply because everybody participated in it. It's like blaming yourself! How many people have the courage to do that? Could the same be told about the current situation? Yes, governments printed trillion of money but they did not put a gun in your head telling you, it's either you invest in crypto/stock market or you are done. We participated because our friends and family did, we participated because we were greedy, we participated because we believed in a fairytale and we participated because we wanted an"exit" from the system but all we did was feed the system!
I cannot really find any really strong arguments to support that the same will not happen again in the not-so-distant future. I am only thinking that if it is that obvious maybe the markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent!
I stand by the Tradinview's motto LOOK FIRST/THEN LEAP
1. Before reaching ATH the index did a very sharp decline of 33%
2. It took the index 17 bars to reach an ATH vs 20 now
3. Found support on 40SMA after 9 months from ATH vs 7 now
4. Mass retail participation
5. .com mania vs crypto mania? (did luna just popped the bubble?)
6. Interest rates were falling back in 2000 vs rising now (tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate)
7. Inflation was not even close back then to what is is now (tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi)
What to wait for
1. Holding or not 40SMA!!!
2. Where RSI, MACD & DMI will head towards next months
3. The index went -18.35% lower than the previous big decline which equals Nasdaq declining just above where the previous wave ended
4. It took the index 23 months by the time it touched for the first time the 40SMA to bottom which means April 2024 just 6 months before the elections
When the bubble burst in 2000 nobody really blamed the "system" like in 09 simply because everybody participated in it. It's like blaming yourself! How many people have the courage to do that? Could the same be told about the current situation? Yes, governments printed trillion of money but they did not put a gun in your head telling you, it's either you invest in crypto/stock market or you are done. We participated because our friends and family did, we participated because we were greedy, we participated because we believed in a fairytale and we participated because we wanted an"exit" from the system but all we did was feed the system!
I cannot really find any really strong arguments to support that the same will not happen again in the not-so-distant future. I am only thinking that if it is that obvious maybe the markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent!
I stand by the Tradinview's motto LOOK FIRST/THEN LEAP
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