Short

Real estate cycle down

Updated

Pay close attention to real estate- It is due for a cycle low somewhere around early-mid 2020. Because the cycle peak is late, I would venture to say that the move downward could be accelerated. How low it goes should reveal how bearish (or bullish) it is.

Note

daily view:

Note

closer view on daily- shows ascending megaphone into the top of this cycle.. This is a bearish pattern but a pain to try to short. It may be worth waiting for it to break below this pattern for being short.. It could move up strong in another move... I was shorting back in April... mistake.

Note

alright- this should be it. I'm adding long PUTS here. This cycle low is due mid 2020 and there's going to be a lot going on before then. I'm reaching as far out on expiry as I can (Jan 2021) PUTS and I'll be patient this time.

Note

take a look at the weekly stoch/rsi...

Note

This weekly candle close will be right on that stoch/rsi bear divergence line. Just worth noting

Note

Green box I've allowed myself a total of 5 longer term put buys on IYR. I currently only have 2 but they are out for Jan 2021 expiry. I suspect that the longer we top out, the more violent/quick the correction will be.
I'm trying to be patient for a potential spike up to add to my short position:

Note

several weeks of sideways action is keeping the stoch/rsi flattened- I've never seen it like this. I'm slowly adding to my long term short position.

Note

whew, watching corn grow here. Stoch/RSI still pinned on weekly. Buy low, sell high - this ain't a place I'd be a buyer. I've added some IYR puts out for 2021

gghsusa

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.