Japan 225: Amid Bearish Momentum and Global Uncertainty
Updated
The Japan 225 index is currently trading below the FibCloud, signaling a potential downward trend. My target for this short trade is around the 35,500- 36,200price area, where I anticipate significant support based on historical price movements and Fib levels. For now, I’ll let the trade run, while closely monitoring price action near the 40,000 zone. It’s crucial that the price remains below this level for the short trade to remain valid. A recovery back above 40,000 could signal a reversal, and in such a case, I may reassess my strategy.
Technical Overview:
• Partials: 38,000- 37,000area.
• Stop Loss: Monitoring the 40,000 zone as a key level of resistance.
• Key Indicators: The FibCloud provides strong bearish signals, and the declining price action suggests continued selling pressure.
• Risk Management: I’ll adjust the stop-loss level accordingly if the market shows signs of recovery or increased volatility. Taking partials at key support levels to secure profit remains an essential part of this strategy.
Fundamental Overview:
• Asia-Pacific Market Sentiment: As noted in the news, Asia-Pacific markets are mixed with attention on China’s loan prime rate announcement and Japan’s general election at the end of the week. While China’s central bank cut the one- and five-year LPRs by 25 basis points, this has not done enough to boost confidence, especially with property stocks tumbling.
• Japan’s Economic Data: Japan’s exports fell by 1.7% in September compared to the same period last year, signaling a potential slowdown in trade. Additionally, the Nikkei closed marginally lower recently, indicating bearish market conditions.
• Global Outlook: Japan’s market might be impacted further by inflation figures and GDP data expected this week, adding volatility and making the short trade setup timely.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Technical Overview:
• Partials: 38,000- 37,000area.
• Stop Loss: Monitoring the 40,000 zone as a key level of resistance.
• Key Indicators: The FibCloud provides strong bearish signals, and the declining price action suggests continued selling pressure.
• Risk Management: I’ll adjust the stop-loss level accordingly if the market shows signs of recovery or increased volatility. Taking partials at key support levels to secure profit remains an essential part of this strategy.
Fundamental Overview:
• Asia-Pacific Market Sentiment: As noted in the news, Asia-Pacific markets are mixed with attention on China’s loan prime rate announcement and Japan’s general election at the end of the week. While China’s central bank cut the one- and five-year LPRs by 25 basis points, this has not done enough to boost confidence, especially with property stocks tumbling.
• Japan’s Economic Data: Japan’s exports fell by 1.7% in September compared to the same period last year, signaling a potential slowdown in trade. Additionally, the Nikkei closed marginally lower recently, indicating bearish market conditions.
• Global Outlook: Japan’s market might be impacted further by inflation figures and GDP data expected this week, adding volatility and making the short trade setup timely.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Trade active
The trade is currently running 4% in profit. We’ve seen a retest of the FibCloud, and there isn’t much momentum (voim) around these levels. As a result, we may witness some ranging price action before the market decides its next direction. Feel free to adjust your position based on your strategy: you could consider taking partial profits, moving your stop loss to breakeven (BE), or even closing the trade in full if that aligns with your comfort level and trading conditions.Trade active
The Japan 225 trade is progressing well, with the majority of the position closed around the 37,500 level due to a potential double-bottom formation that played out effectively, recovering a significant portion of the downside movement. Currently, a small remaining position is left to run, providing flexibility as we move into a dynamic week for the JPY, culminating in the NFP on Friday, which presents further profit opportunities.
This is an insight into how I actively manage swing trades, emphasizing practical decision-making over static SL or TP targets. For example, while this trade showed profit for 11 days, most of that gain was nearly negated in one session. To succeed in trading, it’s essential to pay yourself consistently rather than risk returning profits to the market. The goal here is clear: securing gains, not simply setting targets.
Trade active
The position is still running in profit, with bearish momentum observed across indices. The price briefly returned to my entry level before rejecting with strong momentum, indicating potential further downside. Most of the profit is locked in, making this trade risk-free for me. I will continue to manage the remaining position accordingly.Trade active
The trade remains active and currently in profit, with price stabilizing between the 38,000–39,000 zone. We may see some range-bound movement here or, hopefully, some directional movement favoring the trade. This is a critical week for the markets due to significant events like the Presidential and Congressional Elections, Federal Funds Rate decision, and FOMC meeting. Stay cautious, manage risk conservatively, and secure profits when possible.
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