Bearish scenario - selling at the top
- using TA - Fib based projection suggests a danger zone possible top around 40k specifically 40,379
- Overlaying the 2008-10 bear price structure coincidences with BAGL (bottom ascending grind lines) trend lines which could act as support.
- Assuming this is major bear, from the top 50% or 61.8% fib retracement is appropriate and looking where the fib touches the BAGLs tells you where the bottom is in time. It suggests Summer 2026 following historical precedent we know bear markets are fast 18 months to 2 years are typical for corrections and fits to the KLOS too
- There are no bears left
- Retail is on record levels of margin
- the 18.6 housing cycle is about to roll over
- Trump put on tariffs
- There is trillions of debt that needs to be rolled over we are out of control
- Carry trade unwind leads to 3-4 T that will have to be written off as bad loans guys will keep this in Cayman islands and retire
- US debt is being bought up by Cayman island accounts - no money left
- China and oil countries are not buying US treasuries
- All world indices divided by Gold are in down trend, topped out previously so if Gold is real money then we are already in a world wide bear market
- The advances and decliners lines have broken BAGLs just like they did in the start of the last bear markets
- The Nifty fifty Indian market is leading us down so is Malaysia & Turkey
- NVDA looks weak as 14% of Nasdaq is it a canary ?
- The old drivers of the bull become the bear targets?
- USDJPY at KLOS going back 20 yr chart could be the breakdown signal
- Trump wants weaker dollar to make USA great again for manufacturing
This is quick look - you need to calculate out the exact bottom with care and accuracy as time moves closer
- using TA - Fib based projection suggests a danger zone possible top around 40k specifically 40,379
- Overlaying the 2008-10 bear price structure coincidences with BAGL (bottom ascending grind lines) trend lines which could act as support.
- Assuming this is major bear, from the top 50% or 61.8% fib retracement is appropriate and looking where the fib touches the BAGLs tells you where the bottom is in time. It suggests Summer 2026 following historical precedent we know bear markets are fast 18 months to 2 years are typical for corrections and fits to the KLOS too
- There are no bears left
- Retail is on record levels of margin
- the 18.6 housing cycle is about to roll over
- Trump put on tariffs
- There is trillions of debt that needs to be rolled over we are out of control
- Carry trade unwind leads to 3-4 T that will have to be written off as bad loans guys will keep this in Cayman islands and retire
- US debt is being bought up by Cayman island accounts - no money left
- China and oil countries are not buying US treasuries
- All world indices divided by Gold are in down trend, topped out previously so if Gold is real money then we are already in a world wide bear market
- The advances and decliners lines have broken BAGLs just like they did in the start of the last bear markets
- The Nifty fifty Indian market is leading us down so is Malaysia & Turkey
- NVDA looks weak as 14% of Nasdaq is it a canary ?
- The old drivers of the bull become the bear targets?
- USDJPY at KLOS going back 20 yr chart could be the breakdown signal
- Trump wants weaker dollar to make USA great again for manufacturing
This is quick look - you need to calculate out the exact bottom with care and accuracy as time moves closer
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.