Next Stock Market Collapse in mid 2026? $KBH - the guiding light
Updated
It is almost impossible for a layman or retail investor like me to know roughly when stock market will collapse or goes through big correction, unless i am part of the mastermind of Goldman Sach, JP Morgan and colluding with politicians
Hence, i look at charts repeatedly day in and day out in order to find out if there is any "cyclical pattern" which is NOT noticeable to the rest
Though nothing is for certaint, while screening through charts, i bumped into this historical KBH stock chart
Using the simple assumption that when economy is growing generally, residential construction in the United States can be taken generally as a good indicator
from the 80's to late 90's, price was fluctuating in large side way range in the form of inverted head and shoulders before piercing pass the median line and skyrocketed in upper channel towards the channel top. This exceptional growth period took place from early 2022 after the 2000 dotcom bust and took about 3.5 year before peaking, consolidating and collapsed
Again, if my interpretation is correct, since end 2007 until end 2022, price of KBH has been gyrating side way massively and formed a gigantic inverted head and shoulders.
Price has retested and successfully found support at the median channel line and has been going up for at least 8 months.
IF AND ONLY IF, the same 3.5 years of skyrocketing price repeats as drawn in Oval shape, we will start worry about market collapse around Mid-2026
Whether i am correct or close enough with such "prediction", it remains to be seen until later.
Meanwhile, i also monitor the inverted yield curve which seems pretty bad. So i am open to any possibility.
This is solely my research interest and must not be take as a solicit for anyone to buy or sell any stocks.
Hence, i look at charts repeatedly day in and day out in order to find out if there is any "cyclical pattern" which is NOT noticeable to the rest
Though nothing is for certaint, while screening through charts, i bumped into this historical KBH stock chart
Using the simple assumption that when economy is growing generally, residential construction in the United States can be taken generally as a good indicator
from the 80's to late 90's, price was fluctuating in large side way range in the form of inverted head and shoulders before piercing pass the median line and skyrocketed in upper channel towards the channel top. This exceptional growth period took place from early 2022 after the 2000 dotcom bust and took about 3.5 year before peaking, consolidating and collapsed
Again, if my interpretation is correct, since end 2007 until end 2022, price of KBH has been gyrating side way massively and formed a gigantic inverted head and shoulders.
Price has retested and successfully found support at the median channel line and has been going up for at least 8 months.
IF AND ONLY IF, the same 3.5 years of skyrocketing price repeats as drawn in Oval shape, we will start worry about market collapse around Mid-2026
Whether i am correct or close enough with such "prediction", it remains to be seen until later.
Meanwhile, i also monitor the inverted yield curve which seems pretty bad. So i am open to any possibility.
This is solely my research interest and must not be take as a solicit for anyone to buy or sell any stocks.
Note
Interesting, ain't iti publish this idea on 13Aug, having no clue on Berkshire's holding
and today 15Aug, news regarding Warren Buffett's big bet on House Builder stocks
i am on right track, BUT before we get complacent, get ready for down correction first
barrons.com/articles/what-to-know-today-22b4e0a8
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