Long

KDA Analysis

Updated

KDA failed to rally through resistance (R1) over the weekend and has since retraced to the 38.2% Fib level around $1.15. With the fed announcement likely to stir volatility across the markets I'd wager we likely come down to the area where S1 aligns with the trendline and the 50% retracement level at around $1.10. This also would be the breakout level from the Adam & Eve bottoming pattern formed from the November and Jan lows. Should be a strong level to bounce from, and we'll likely see some attempt here depending on how things react to the fed rate announcement.

Whatever the news, good or bad, I think this bounce probably gets faded. Knowing crypto it will need to break this trend line and consolidate closer to the 61.8% level around $1.03. We'll probably get several touches on $1.00 and maybe one or two wicks below. These will likely get bought up at around .95 cents, which is the 78.6% fib level. Should we rally from there, it would be hard to ignore the possibility that the "Adam & Eve" bottom could actually have been an incomplete Inverted H&S. If KDA can put the floor in at those levels I think it's highly likely.

Note

Incredibly strong bounce with healthy volume. Watching bullish divergence on lower timeframes. A pullback to the .38 fib level and reversal is an extremely healthy uptrend identifier. Perhaps I was too pessimistic in my downside scenarios. Maybe we're getting some fomo re-entries with the markets reaction to fed announcement. As long as mega-cap growth doesnt shit the bed on earnings or paint a completely grim outlook, I think we'll be heading for greener days at least until late March.

Note

Successfully retested the $1.15 level--which had been a significant resistance level--and is now climbing higher, forming the right shoulder well. Volume increasing, and outperforming BTC by around 5% on an overall negative market day. The weekly Vortex Indicator, which is used to spot changes in trend, has turned positive for the first time since the ATH. Another thing I like to look for during a potential bottom is on a Daily time frame, I want to see the signal line cross up through the MACD, and both climb up enough above the zero line to get a negative signal cross back down through the MACD but swoop back up at or very close to the zero line. Basically just want to see a lower low on the daily MACD, but I'd like to see it take place above zero. On more of a macro level topic, the newest miners have been apparently been selling well. The difficulty and hashrate has practically doubled year-to-date. This is bad news in the short term if you just bought a miner for $12,000 and were expecting to receive 40-50 KDA per day and are now only receiving 25-30. However, this often is a sign that miners believe strongly in the future of the blockchain and as difficulty levels out, price moves higher will bring their ROI back up.

Overall, considering recent BTC and legacy markets price action, I'm pretty pleased with how this small alt has done. Especially if the relative strength against BTC can continue to improve with more days like today. I keep seeing sellers come in at resistance, or when we're trading outside the Bollinger bands. But I think we're about to get some pretty big green candles on the shorter time frames to put the nail in the bear coffin.

Note

EDIT: Above comment regarding MACD should say "higher low" not lower low.

JNor

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