Kohl's Corporation (KSS) Trading Analysis for Monday, April 21, 2025
Sentiment Analysis
----Overview: Sentiment on platforms like X and StockTwits leans bearish, driven by tariff concerns and Kohl’s weakening fundamentals, with projected sales declines of 5-7% in 2025. JP Morgan’s Underweight rating and $7 price target as of April 14 underscore margin pressures, though a ~12% dividend yield provides some appeal for income-focused investors.
----Implication: The prevailing negative sentiment, coupled with macroeconomic headwinds, is likely to exert downward pressure on KSS, overshadowing the dividend’s stabilizing effect.
Strategic Outlook
----Assessment: The outlook for Monday is bearish, fueled by significant put activity in weekly options, persistently oversold technical indicators without reversal signals, and a VIX at ~40, reflecting heightened market volatility.
----Implication: Anticipate a price range of $6.20 to $6.50, with a risk of breaching support at $6.20, potentially driving the stock toward $5.80 if bearish momentum persists.
Market Influences
----Overview: No new Federal Reserve decisions today; however, recent guidance on April 17 signals a cautious approach to rates, which could dampen retail spending. Kohl’s next earnings are scheduled for May 21, per TradingView data. Fitch Ratings downgraded KSS from BB to BB- on April 7, citing financial strain. Social media discussions on X, WallStreetBets, and StockTwits remain bearish, focusing on the impact of 10% baseline tariffs on margins. Additionally, the departure of Chief Technology Officer Siobhán Mc Feeney on April 1 introduces further uncertainty.
----Implication: The absence of positive catalysts, combined with tariff pressures and leadership changes, solidifies a bearish outlook for Monday.
Price Context
----Overview: Current price at $6.48. The stock has declined 21% over the past month from $8.20 on March 31 and is down 73% year-over-year from $23.94 in April 2024. Support lies at $6.20 (recent low on April 17), with resistance at $6.89 (April 14 open).
----Implication: Recent declines, driven by tariffs and executive turnover, suggest continued downward pressure, with a break below $6.20 likely to accelerate losses.
Technical Indicators
Monthly: RSI at 22 (oversold), Stochastic at ~12 (oversold), MFI at ~18 (oversold). Price below 10/20-month SMAs ($8.50/~$9.50, bearish).
Implication: Long-term bearish trend with extreme oversold conditions, yet no reversal signal is evident.
Weekly: RSI at 27 (oversold), Stochastic at ~17 (oversold), MFI at ~20 (oversold). Price below 10/20-day SMAs ($6.70/~$6.90, bearish).
Implication: Bearish trend confirms downside bias for weekly contracts.
Daily: RSI at 30 (nearing oversold), Stochastic at ~15 (oversold), MFI at ~22 (oversold). Price below 10/20-day SMAs ($6.40/~$6.50, bearish).
Implication: Daily trend supports weekly bearish bias.
4-Hour: RSI at 35 (nearing oversold), Stochastic at ~18 (oversold), MFI at ~28 (nearing oversold). Price below 10/20-period SMAs ($6.30/~$6.40, bearish).
Implication: Medium-term bias aligns with weekly outlook.
Hourly: RSI at 32 (nearing oversold), Stochastic at ~15 (oversold), MFI at ~25 (oversold). Price below 10/20-hour SMAs ($6.35/~$6.40, bearish).
Implication: Intraday bias supports weekly trade direction.
10-Minute: RSI at 38 (neutral), Stochastic at ~20 (oversold), MFI at ~30 (nearing oversold). Price below 10/20-period SMAs ($6.45/~$6.47, bearish).
Implication: Short-term bias reinforces weekly contract setup.
Options Positioning
Overview: Weekly options show high put volume at $6.50 (1,500 contracts, 70% at bid), with a put-call ratio of 2.5 (bearish) and IV skew favoring puts ($6.50: 50%, rising). Monthly options have a put-call ratio of 2.0, with put IV rising ($6.00: 48%). 3-Month options show a put-call ratio of 2.3, with put IV rising ($5.50: 45%). VIX at ~40 (down 5%, above 30-day average of ~35).
Option Flow Dynamics (OFD) Analysis:
Vanna:
Impact: -$0.10 intraday.
Insight: Rising put IV at 50% compels dealers to sell shares to hedge delta as IV increases, exerting downward pressure. A VIX of 40 heightens this effect.
Stance: Bearish for weekly contracts; neutral if IV falls below 48%.
Charm:
Impact: Pins price ±$0.05, adds $0.03 volatility.
Insight: High put open interest at $6.50 prompts dealers to sell shares to maintain delta neutrality near expiry, pinning the price with minor volatility.
Stance: Bearish for weekly contracts; neutral if price holds $6.50.
GEX (Gamma Exposure):
Impact: Pins price ±$0.10, adds $0.05 volatility.
Insight: Negative gamma from elevated put open interest drives dealers to sell shares on price declines, pinning at $6.50 while adding volatility on breakouts.
Stance: Bearish below $6.50 for weekly contracts; neutral at $6.50.
DEX (Delta Exposure):
Impact: $0.20-00.30/DAY downward pressure.
Insight: High put open interest creates a delta imbalance, compelling dealers to sell shares on price drops, adding consistent downward pressure.
Stance: Bearish for weekly contracts, particularly on high volume.
OFD Summary: Weekly flows signal a bearish bias, with $0.30-$0.50 downward pressure driven by Vanna and DEX selling. Pivot at $6.50; weekly range $6.20-$6.50 (pinning). A VIX of 40 amplifies downside risk, and a break below $6.20 could trigger $0.15 volatility (GEX). Monthly and 3-month expiries, with put-call ratios of 2.0 and 2.3, provide bearish confluence.
Implication: Bearish bias for weekly contracts; elevated VIX suggests downside volatility, with a $6.20-$6.50 range for Monday.
ICT/SMT Analysis
Overview: Weekly: Bearish, support at $6.20, resistance at $6.89, SMT divergence versus WMT confirms weakness. Daily: Bearish, FVG $6.50-$6.89, OB $5.80. 4-Hour: Bearish, MSS below $6.48, liquidity below $6.20. 1-Hour: Bearish, MSS below $6.48, liquidity below $6.20. 10-Minute: OTE sell zone $6.50-$6.60 (Fib 70.5%), target $6.20.
Implication: Bearish across all timeframes; a breakdown below $6.20 is likely, aligning with the weekly contract setup.
Edge Insights
Dark Pool Activity: Large sell orders at $6.50 in recent dark pool prints (April 18) indicate institutional bearishness, potentially increasing selling pressure if retail traders follow suit on Monday.
Sector Dynamics: The consumer discretionary sector is down 17.8% year-to-date (Morningstar); Kohl’s heavy reliance on imported goods amid tariffs makes it more vulnerable than peers like Walmart, which benefits from stronger domestic sourcing.
Short Interest Pressure: Short interest at ~45% of float (MarketBeat) raises the risk of a short squeeze if the price breaks above $6.89, though current momentum favors shorts targeting $6.20.
Implication: Institutional selling and sector weakness reinforce the bearish bias for weekly puts; remain vigilant for a potential squeeze if the price approaches $6.89.
Trade Recommendation
Analysis:
Bearish: 55% likelihood (negative MSS, OFD flows, tariff pressures).
Neutral: 30% likelihood (GEX pinning at $6.50, high VIX choppiness).
Bullish: 15% likelihood (oversold indicators, potential bounce above $6.89).
Action: Recommend a bearish weekly trade below $6.20, targeting $5.80. Purchase $6.50 puts (weekly expiry) at ~$0.25, aiming for $0.50, with a stop at $0.15 if KSS breaks $6.60. Risk $50 (2.5% of a $2,000 account).
Conclusion for Monday: Kohl’s faces a bearish trajectory driven by tariff pressures, negative options flows, and leadership uncertainty. The recommended strategy focuses on a breakdown below $6.20 for weekly bearish trades, targeting $5.80. Elevated VIX and institutional selling add risk—execute with tight stops to manage volatility.
Sentiment Analysis
----Overview: Sentiment on platforms like X and StockTwits leans bearish, driven by tariff concerns and Kohl’s weakening fundamentals, with projected sales declines of 5-7% in 2025. JP Morgan’s Underweight rating and $7 price target as of April 14 underscore margin pressures, though a ~12% dividend yield provides some appeal for income-focused investors.
----Implication: The prevailing negative sentiment, coupled with macroeconomic headwinds, is likely to exert downward pressure on KSS, overshadowing the dividend’s stabilizing effect.
Strategic Outlook
----Assessment: The outlook for Monday is bearish, fueled by significant put activity in weekly options, persistently oversold technical indicators without reversal signals, and a VIX at ~40, reflecting heightened market volatility.
----Implication: Anticipate a price range of $6.20 to $6.50, with a risk of breaching support at $6.20, potentially driving the stock toward $5.80 if bearish momentum persists.
Market Influences
----Overview: No new Federal Reserve decisions today; however, recent guidance on April 17 signals a cautious approach to rates, which could dampen retail spending. Kohl’s next earnings are scheduled for May 21, per TradingView data. Fitch Ratings downgraded KSS from BB to BB- on April 7, citing financial strain. Social media discussions on X, WallStreetBets, and StockTwits remain bearish, focusing on the impact of 10% baseline tariffs on margins. Additionally, the departure of Chief Technology Officer Siobhán Mc Feeney on April 1 introduces further uncertainty.
----Implication: The absence of positive catalysts, combined with tariff pressures and leadership changes, solidifies a bearish outlook for Monday.
Price Context
----Overview: Current price at $6.48. The stock has declined 21% over the past month from $8.20 on March 31 and is down 73% year-over-year from $23.94 in April 2024. Support lies at $6.20 (recent low on April 17), with resistance at $6.89 (April 14 open).
----Implication: Recent declines, driven by tariffs and executive turnover, suggest continued downward pressure, with a break below $6.20 likely to accelerate losses.
Technical Indicators
Monthly: RSI at 22 (oversold), Stochastic at ~12 (oversold), MFI at ~18 (oversold). Price below 10/20-month SMAs ($8.50/~$9.50, bearish).
Implication: Long-term bearish trend with extreme oversold conditions, yet no reversal signal is evident.
Weekly: RSI at 27 (oversold), Stochastic at ~17 (oversold), MFI at ~20 (oversold). Price below 10/20-day SMAs ($6.70/~$6.90, bearish).
Implication: Bearish trend confirms downside bias for weekly contracts.
Daily: RSI at 30 (nearing oversold), Stochastic at ~15 (oversold), MFI at ~22 (oversold). Price below 10/20-day SMAs ($6.40/~$6.50, bearish).
Implication: Daily trend supports weekly bearish bias.
4-Hour: RSI at 35 (nearing oversold), Stochastic at ~18 (oversold), MFI at ~28 (nearing oversold). Price below 10/20-period SMAs ($6.30/~$6.40, bearish).
Implication: Medium-term bias aligns with weekly outlook.
Hourly: RSI at 32 (nearing oversold), Stochastic at ~15 (oversold), MFI at ~25 (oversold). Price below 10/20-hour SMAs ($6.35/~$6.40, bearish).
Implication: Intraday bias supports weekly trade direction.
10-Minute: RSI at 38 (neutral), Stochastic at ~20 (oversold), MFI at ~30 (nearing oversold). Price below 10/20-period SMAs ($6.45/~$6.47, bearish).
Implication: Short-term bias reinforces weekly contract setup.
Options Positioning
Overview: Weekly options show high put volume at $6.50 (1,500 contracts, 70% at bid), with a put-call ratio of 2.5 (bearish) and IV skew favoring puts ($6.50: 50%, rising). Monthly options have a put-call ratio of 2.0, with put IV rising ($6.00: 48%). 3-Month options show a put-call ratio of 2.3, with put IV rising ($5.50: 45%). VIX at ~40 (down 5%, above 30-day average of ~35).
Option Flow Dynamics (OFD) Analysis:
Vanna:
Impact: -$0.10 intraday.
Insight: Rising put IV at 50% compels dealers to sell shares to hedge delta as IV increases, exerting downward pressure. A VIX of 40 heightens this effect.
Stance: Bearish for weekly contracts; neutral if IV falls below 48%.
Charm:
Impact: Pins price ±$0.05, adds $0.03 volatility.
Insight: High put open interest at $6.50 prompts dealers to sell shares to maintain delta neutrality near expiry, pinning the price with minor volatility.
Stance: Bearish for weekly contracts; neutral if price holds $6.50.
GEX (Gamma Exposure):
Impact: Pins price ±$0.10, adds $0.05 volatility.
Insight: Negative gamma from elevated put open interest drives dealers to sell shares on price declines, pinning at $6.50 while adding volatility on breakouts.
Stance: Bearish below $6.50 for weekly contracts; neutral at $6.50.
DEX (Delta Exposure):
Impact: $0.20-00.30/DAY downward pressure.
Insight: High put open interest creates a delta imbalance, compelling dealers to sell shares on price drops, adding consistent downward pressure.
Stance: Bearish for weekly contracts, particularly on high volume.
OFD Summary: Weekly flows signal a bearish bias, with $0.30-$0.50 downward pressure driven by Vanna and DEX selling. Pivot at $6.50; weekly range $6.20-$6.50 (pinning). A VIX of 40 amplifies downside risk, and a break below $6.20 could trigger $0.15 volatility (GEX). Monthly and 3-month expiries, with put-call ratios of 2.0 and 2.3, provide bearish confluence.
Implication: Bearish bias for weekly contracts; elevated VIX suggests downside volatility, with a $6.20-$6.50 range for Monday.
ICT/SMT Analysis
Overview: Weekly: Bearish, support at $6.20, resistance at $6.89, SMT divergence versus WMT confirms weakness. Daily: Bearish, FVG $6.50-$6.89, OB $5.80. 4-Hour: Bearish, MSS below $6.48, liquidity below $6.20. 1-Hour: Bearish, MSS below $6.48, liquidity below $6.20. 10-Minute: OTE sell zone $6.50-$6.60 (Fib 70.5%), target $6.20.
Implication: Bearish across all timeframes; a breakdown below $6.20 is likely, aligning with the weekly contract setup.
Edge Insights
Dark Pool Activity: Large sell orders at $6.50 in recent dark pool prints (April 18) indicate institutional bearishness, potentially increasing selling pressure if retail traders follow suit on Monday.
Sector Dynamics: The consumer discretionary sector is down 17.8% year-to-date (Morningstar); Kohl’s heavy reliance on imported goods amid tariffs makes it more vulnerable than peers like Walmart, which benefits from stronger domestic sourcing.
Short Interest Pressure: Short interest at ~45% of float (MarketBeat) raises the risk of a short squeeze if the price breaks above $6.89, though current momentum favors shorts targeting $6.20.
Implication: Institutional selling and sector weakness reinforce the bearish bias for weekly puts; remain vigilant for a potential squeeze if the price approaches $6.89.
Trade Recommendation
Analysis:
Bearish: 55% likelihood (negative MSS, OFD flows, tariff pressures).
Neutral: 30% likelihood (GEX pinning at $6.50, high VIX choppiness).
Bullish: 15% likelihood (oversold indicators, potential bounce above $6.89).
Action: Recommend a bearish weekly trade below $6.20, targeting $5.80. Purchase $6.50 puts (weekly expiry) at ~$0.25, aiming for $0.50, with a stop at $0.15 if KSS breaks $6.60. Risk $50 (2.5% of a $2,000 account).
Conclusion for Monday: Kohl’s faces a bearish trajectory driven by tariff pressures, negative options flows, and leadership uncertainty. The recommended strategy focuses on a breakdown below $6.20 for weekly bearish trades, targeting $5.80. Elevated VIX and institutional selling add risk—execute with tight stops to manage volatility.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.