LAC possible sequence ending? turnaround soon? Target 40+ usd?
Updated
Following LAC for quiet a few years now; following its 3 count overall moves carefully, and waiting for a pullback. The Multi-year trend moving in a so called ABC structures, likely still forming an overall huge diagonal. It was roundabout at the 0.236 fib retracement for a possible wave 4, when fundamentals has been changed for LAC, primarly the company split and ongoing legal actions which made me wait for further draps, although a 0.236 retracement would have been acceptable.
Now, for the white scenario, it is possible we are ending the wave 4 pullback also as a big abc. Being an overall diagonal forming, for a wave 4 the 0.618 is also common, being said, it has almost reached it perfectly, so the risk-reward ratio is getting great for the very long term, to finish off wave 5 also as an abc to the upside, target would be primarly 40-55 usd, in a more bullish interpretation ~69 USD, LIKELY would take also several year (definetely not a few). Keep in mind with our current knowledge, the new mine's production likely ramping up in '26-'27.
fib support down at ~2.43, where the second small fib box upper support ~2.34 is an acceptable one IF there is no sustained, comfortable price actio break below.
For a bit more "bearish" scenario, we already finished of an "A" wave (orange route), either as a smaller diagonal, or I could make a case for a WXY as well, does not really matter. We are working now on orange circle B, which should be also an abc structure, in which we finished, or near to finish the (A) wave, and a correction should be imminent with a minimal upside target of 6.27 currently, but be aware it is a moving target, as price action evolves we might need to adjus that red resistance box. Standard support box is added for the orange route as well 0.9 usd being the last reliable support for a later evolving C wave.
On the 1h, 4h RSI and MACD has already built a nice divergence, on the daily it has started to built, early signs are there but not fully present. Weekly is coming up, towards ground levels. So far all the meaningful MA'S on the daily (9/21/50/52/180/200) was rejecting price action previously, currently trying to break above and close above the 9day SMA.
We do have a small head and shoulders pattern as well with a downtarget of ~2.29 which not neccessarly needs to be reached. This is the multi-year big picture, from this point forward switching from a weekly timeframe, to lower ones.
Now, for the white scenario, it is possible we are ending the wave 4 pullback also as a big abc. Being an overall diagonal forming, for a wave 4 the 0.618 is also common, being said, it has almost reached it perfectly, so the risk-reward ratio is getting great for the very long term, to finish off wave 5 also as an abc to the upside, target would be primarly 40-55 usd, in a more bullish interpretation ~69 USD, LIKELY would take also several year (definetely not a few). Keep in mind with our current knowledge, the new mine's production likely ramping up in '26-'27.
fib support down at ~2.43, where the second small fib box upper support ~2.34 is an acceptable one IF there is no sustained, comfortable price actio break below.
For a bit more "bearish" scenario, we already finished of an "A" wave (orange route), either as a smaller diagonal, or I could make a case for a WXY as well, does not really matter. We are working now on orange circle B, which should be also an abc structure, in which we finished, or near to finish the (A) wave, and a correction should be imminent with a minimal upside target of 6.27 currently, but be aware it is a moving target, as price action evolves we might need to adjus that red resistance box. Standard support box is added for the orange route as well 0.9 usd being the last reliable support for a later evolving C wave.
On the 1h, 4h RSI and MACD has already built a nice divergence, on the daily it has started to built, early signs are there but not fully present. Weekly is coming up, towards ground levels. So far all the meaningful MA'S on the daily (9/21/50/52/180/200) was rejecting price action previously, currently trying to break above and close above the 9day SMA.
We do have a small head and shoulders pattern as well with a downtarget of ~2.29 which not neccessarly needs to be reached. This is the multi-year big picture, from this point forward switching from a weekly timeframe, to lower ones.
Note
Going to 8/4HR timeframe, I share you some details for the white route. So likely we are finishing off the wave (v) of C of (4). For me it really looks like as an ending diagonal, which means abc structure everywhere, therefore wave (v) should also be an abc. This would align well knowing we are quiet deep in the support fib area for an overall wave 4.Essentially we would need to take out 4.68 and break above the yellow trendline. (we do have a yellow scenario btw as well, but I am not bothering you with that yet, as there is 0 evidence for it)
On the hourly, a very good initial sign (but not confirmation!!!) would be to break above the smaller yellow trendline, and take out 3.12 usd, with a 5 wave move to the upside. Essentially i would still expect the price drop further, but I can already recognize an ultra-micro 5 waves up structure, so i have added a fib support box already. It is more recognizable on the 15min-30min chart. Of course it would need to manifest to the bigger timeframes, with the kept divergences!
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1st small position added for long @ 2.65Trade active
2nd small position added for long @ 2.51Note
One possibility for bottoming now, possible. So far it is a 5 wave ultra-micro strcuture (could morph into a 3 wave structure), therefore added a support box, which now should hold.It is also possible we are extending a bit lower; should the smal fib box break, next support levels for a possible bottoming: 2.45 & 2.33
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3rd small position added for long @ 2.96Note
Small support box was holding, I have removed it now.Initial resistance was also taken out, which is a good start. It is possible we have finished a smaller 3rd wave up, for that a wave (4) pullback is happening now, where price should hold without a sustained break the smaller fib box level.
As an abc / overall diagonal it is also possible (yellow) that we finished a wave 1 or wave A to the upside; for that, the lower fib box should hold. Should we have a sustained break below that (currently not expected primarly), would mean that we going a bit lower either as an extension of the white route, or the orange route.
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4th small position added for long @ 2.77Trade active
5th small position added for long @ 2.70Trade active
1st mid position added for long @ 2.59Note
I have adjusted the counts a bit as price / volume / wave route action and the nature of the moves was/are evolving. It is still possible (50% probability at this point), that we gonna one or two, more meaningful swingdown like I mentioned previously primarly to 2.45-2.33, although now we do have a so called "head and shoulders" pattern with a downtarget of ~2.24 - 2.19, that would be barely but still acceptable for the white route as an overall diagonal to the upside.
Very near term I try to follow and adjust the routes, it is possible that this is just an overall abc correction to the upside, as the firs greean breakout point was twice retested (once from top, once from bottom) and got rejected. Also we have retraced a bit too deep already to have this a reliable wave micro wave 2 to the bottom, but possible, so for now I am leaving the counts as it is.
Note
Global selloff/JPY liqudation effecting the overall markets (maybe just the start?)
I have adjusted the white counts, and removed the yellow so far. Remember we do have the orange route as well (check the initial post).
We back to the previous trendlines, there will be now (should be) a lot of resistances above us. What we looking for again, is a new 5 wave up (if it forms), with then a 3 count pullback.
For me it seems, that actually one more low is now at least can be expected, unless its a diagonal to the downside with a very small / trenched 1-2 at the tops.
Resistance for a wave 4 correction has been added. Should it break to the upside SUSTAINED, we might have some form of a local bottom in, but no confirmation until breaking above the upper resistance (trendline now), with 5 waves.
Note
Recieved a fem DM: so far this is only a 3 count up, and not a 5 wave.
We did break above the resistance a bit, but just hovering around the upper resistance zone, so it could be a wave4 top is nearing to be finihsed.
I have added now a yellow initial route/sketch, what we would need to see roughly as a small 5 wave up, and then followed later by a 3 count pullback of some form.
Good start, yes, but deceptive a bit still; again, good start, we also break back above the huge dotted trendline of the diagonal (primary support trendline).
Some bullish divergence has been formed on the hourly, not yet on the more meaningful 4hr/daily charts. Alternatively it is possible (but less possible), that the last 5th white wave down is a truncation, meaning, was unable to break below wave 3, but no evidence for that so far, just speculation. All depend on the next moves in the upcoming weeks.
Note
A short update, although i dont believe it is too meaningfull, due to several options on this micro-scale. Ultimately we dont have any 5 wave up yet, and the yellow is getting challenged. Reason for that, it looks for my eyes/counting as a nice abc structure so far from the bottom, which can be in fact the case - I have adjusted a bit the white route to the downside from wave (4) - would fit as a smaller diagonal, meaning, that NORMALLY we would need a small 5 count down now to finish off the big sequence/bottoming sequence. for the WHITE scenario. Remember, we do have the orange, but that is not our primary scenario YET (for that we would drop below 1.85, then it becoming more likely and probabilities starting to shift exponentially to that below that).
Hence the reason, it would be great to have some kind of a 5wave up, even a nano-wave5 up. Previously we had one arguably as a diagonal - which failed so far, but could fit as a wave (4) top correction.
Now, with light blue:
At this stage it is a hopium count.
I have sketched out a possibility, it just not too probable, would mean that we did have a trunaction, which is tremendiously rare, but possible. Just not probable. Then and only then we have a nano 5 wave up. I have added a white fib support box, but that means, it is already reached, which is fine, price MUST HOLD 2.18, no sustained break can happen below that. Then lightblue wave (3) should go now (or once wave(2) bottomed) to 3.45-3.90 area.
Yellow: It is getting challenged, not invalidated. Price should hold 2.38 for a yellow wave 4, and then 2.99-3.19 usd should be reached for a wave 5, that would create a bigger yellow wave (1), as a diagonal. Then we can add a support area for a yellow wave (2). Anyway, I would love to see price not having a sustained break anymore below 2.41 USD for this - as that is ultimately (2.41 USD) our huuuuuuge support level for a possible multiyear long fifth wave up as the original idea. We broke above the falling white dotted trendline - which is a good initial sign, but far from enough, and now getting retested! We need 5 waves up, and then a 3 wave pullback holding support. We dont have that yet.
ALT white: Hopium, actually more probable then the lightblue. It suggests, that the lows are also in, BUT we are dealing with a bigger diagonal from the lows, hence the 3 wave move. We would have a more choppy upside movement, still to that 3.45-3.90 area, but with 3 count moves creating an overall 5 wave move bigger wedge pattern. Like abc-abc-abc-abc-abc. We should also NOT have any sustained break below 2.18, but definetely NOT below the red line, in my eyes thats the make-or-break point for a new overall low - essentially the normal white would play out, OR the big orange - too early to tell.
Now, we do have some bullish divergence on the hourly and on the 4hr meanwhile, daily unclear. Essentially it is trying to bottom out, the question is if the bulls strong enough already, or will they fail.
Note
Early warning: blue already out, yellow is already out, ALT white is still in but getting challenged already. Meanwhile a new head and shoulders/cup&handle has been formed, with a downtarget of ~ 1.77 - 1.67. If however thats playing out, I probabilites already shifted to the orange, and we need to track that.Note
As price evolve, i try to weigh in the more probable scenarios. So far the white has the bigger probability, either we topped in a smaller degree b wave, and coming down soon, OR (and this is I am primarly "expecting" or "tracking") the ALT white scenario. So far, I keep it as ALT white.
I have also added a new lightblue count, thats possible, just less probable. This blue SHOULD turn around soon, and no sustained break should happen below 2.56.
Either way, 3.21 should be reached for any of those 2 scenarios, white preferably 3.38 - 3.66 befire going for a an ALT (4). Also, I have added a micro-support fib box (white), this should now definetely hold for either one.
Be aware, this whole structure formed in the previous weeks and months also fits for the orange unfortunately, I have mapped out a rough route for it.
This blue SHOULD turn around soon, and no sustained break should happen below 2.56.
Note
Strong rejection so far at near blue targets, maybe we get an other 1 or 2 swingpushup. For more direct upside for that the adjusted blue box should hold. White box expanded, adjusted.
Note
Upper targets has been hit, and for me it still seems unfinished. Further extensions added.
alt route in white made the primary route in white. Blue still valid.
For more direct upside blue box should hold, primarly i would expect that.
White fib box, for later pullback adjusted, also might happen we need to add later the 0.382 extension for a more "shallow" pullback if needed later.
I have removed the orange sketch; it can still be the orange route, in a different way, but probabilities are getting lower now.
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2nd mid position added for long @ 3.13Note
Lot of incoming DM's : so, i want to see the weekly closing abve 3.30 USD, otherwise chances high that this is just a fakeout. Meaning at least considerably higher lows are arriving. Parameters are given. Unless some extraordinary thing happens, no reason for a new post.Trade active
3rd mid position added for long @ 2.95Trade closed manually
Sold off @ 4.22 / wave 3 target or C reached of 200% extension. Profit booked: ~122% (I was hedged) Waiting for pullback.Note
Seems wave 3 (more probable) extending further, meanwhile due to monetary finalization catalized it further, 240% extension has been reached. Further extensions added, direct move to the upside possible as long as the adjusted small blue box is holding.
Lates around 5.40~ish USD I would be very careful though; then probabilities shifting its a stronger abc overall move (blue route) to finish off the c route.
White box is support area for either b waves; be aware it does NOT have to dip that deep though. For further upside, we would soon need some shape of 3 wave pullback to either area. White dotted line will be a structural resistance. 4.70-4.75 are also structural resitance; early headsup: we might form a so called CUP and HANDLE formation (whoever into formations, I am not too much, just fibs and EW, I am aware of those however).
Idea is working out seemingly ;)
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entered huge short @5.20Trade closed: target reached
Short closed @ 4.06; ~42% profit booked (hedged)Trade active
2nd medium sized position added for long @ 4.06Note
3rd medium sized position added for long @ 3.79
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