CRUDE OIL FUTURE : CONTINUATION FLAG PATTERN?
- since the impact below $95 during the 4th quarter of 2023, sellers have clearly taken control of the market. This sharp sell-off took prices to a new low of $68 at the end of December.
Since then, the acceleration of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the fear of a widening of the conflict to other nations such as Iran, prices have benefited from a renewed appetite from investors.
This has led the market to enter a bullish channel since the end of December 2023, the medium-term trend is therefore bullish.
- Prices are currently trading between their 2 long moving averages, close to the upper limit of their channel, currently challenging the significant resistance represented by the 38.2% Fibonacci at $78.25.
- Even if the bullish trend still remains valid on the medium/short term, the long-term situation stays bearish on black gold.
Indeed, the flag chart pattern generally plays the role of a continuation pattern, denoting a pause in the market before the resumption of the underlying trend.
However, geopolitical uncertainty remains high and the fear of additional disruptions to supply chains could continue to represent upward leverage for the market.
If prices manage to cross $75.25, then a new upside potential towards the $80.25/$81.45 zone could be unlocked.
On the other hand, if the $75.36/$75.90 zone were to be broken, the next supports will be found at the bottom of the bullish channel, then at $71.40 and even lower towards $69.05, $65.85 and $62.65 per extension.
Pierre Veyret, Technical Analyst at ActivTrades
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has no been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Since then, the acceleration of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the fear of a widening of the conflict to other nations such as Iran, prices have benefited from a renewed appetite from investors.
This has led the market to enter a bullish channel since the end of December 2023, the medium-term trend is therefore bullish.
- Prices are currently trading between their 2 long moving averages, close to the upper limit of their channel, currently challenging the significant resistance represented by the 38.2% Fibonacci at $78.25.
- Even if the bullish trend still remains valid on the medium/short term, the long-term situation stays bearish on black gold.
Indeed, the flag chart pattern generally plays the role of a continuation pattern, denoting a pause in the market before the resumption of the underlying trend.
However, geopolitical uncertainty remains high and the fear of additional disruptions to supply chains could continue to represent upward leverage for the market.
If prices manage to cross $75.25, then a new upside potential towards the $80.25/$81.45 zone could be unlocked.
On the other hand, if the $75.36/$75.90 zone were to be broken, the next supports will be found at the bottom of the bullish channel, then at $71.40 and even lower towards $69.05, $65.85 and $62.65 per extension.
Pierre Veyret, Technical Analyst at ActivTrades
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has no been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
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