Are Cattle Futures on the Verge of a Bigger Rally?
Friday’s Slaughter is estimated at 124,000. Unchanged from last week, but 6,000 more than the same week last year.
Friday’s Cutout Values
Choice: 266.26, Down .90 from the previous day.
Select: 246.53, Up 1.15 from the previous day.
Choice/Select Spread: 19.73
5 Area Average Cattle Price
Live Steer: 143.73
Live Heifer: 142.94
Dressed Steer: 229.73
Dressed Heifer: 229.95
Live Cattle
Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 10,576 futures/options through June 14th. Much of which was short covering (12,733 contracts). This expands their net long position to 31,926. Broken down, that is 76,596 longs VS 44,670 shorts. This is still a relatively neutral breakdown for the funds, which continues to favor the Bulls.
Technicals (August): August live cattle were choppy to round out last week’s trade, finishing the session right near unchanged, which is also in line with the 100-day moving average, 136.62. Outside markets are firm this morning which may help provide a tailwind to the market. If the Bulls can chew through resistance from 137.90-137.95, we could (finally) see an extension into the April 25th gap, 138.75-140.275. On the support side of things, 134.85-135.35 is the pocket the Bulls need to defend.
Resistance: 137.90-137.95**, 138.75**, 140.275**
Pivot: 136.60
Support: 134.85-135.35***, 132.45-132.775**, 129.975-130.725****
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