6/27/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
LEVI
Skinny entry, seems overdone ~$19/shr
Hard to find a discretionary name that had super clean results.
ONON comes to mind and 
ELF too (wrote up both of those, i'd not own either at the moment - but they r ones that should be on your watchlist).
Levi a bit of a different animal. more debt on this capital stack (i wrote about this quickly in my
WBA comment today) and honestly i'd guess that factor is ~50% of why this is down in the mid to high teens.
let's run some #s. so we now have a 9 bn and change enterprise value on high 7's bn of market cap. let's gross up the stock price for this debt and u get to ~$23 ($19 x 1.2x)... and EPS power this year is $1.25 - that's 18x.
18x for a solid brand that is dominant in it's industry (tho
ANF is taking some healthy bites and that stock has gone on a ripper - also wrote about that). won't be growing gang busters but mid to low teens. so PEG at slightly above 1. *okay* not great, but still better than cash.
lumpier cash gen than i'd prefer for a co that's near $10 bn enterprise value, but even in a weak consumer environment i'd suspect 500 mm is a good bogey for the mkt so that's 5% rate with growth and brand.
it's a buy here, fundamentally.
but
we have a gap to just beware of in the mid 18s. so if u need to wait/ don't need to own... consider it.
and i'm sure w/ opex tmr, the chain is letting out some air that could keep this stonk px depressed still for a few days/ maybe a week.
i like the potential for a reversal into the close and continuation tmr. don't think results were so bad they merit the -16% move. the capital stack isn't likeWBA (at all!) nevermind levi has a great brand (not just a brand distributor - e.g. a mall etc.).
so this is a 6/7 out of 10 idea if you're looking to swing w a decent risk reward. the risks are spelled out above. a. gap, b. more gamma out c. valuation not "cheap"/ capital stack w debt.
but it's too much for the EPS, fundamentally. so i bite small.
V
LEVISkinny entry, seems overdone ~$19/shr
Hard to find a discretionary name that had super clean results.
ONON comes to mind and ELF too (wrote up both of those, i'd not own either at the moment - but they r ones that should be on your watchlist).Levi a bit of a different animal. more debt on this capital stack (i wrote about this quickly in my
WBA comment today) and honestly i'd guess that factor is ~50% of why this is down in the mid to high teens.let's run some #s. so we now have a 9 bn and change enterprise value on high 7's bn of market cap. let's gross up the stock price for this debt and u get to ~$23 ($19 x 1.2x)... and EPS power this year is $1.25 - that's 18x.
18x for a solid brand that is dominant in it's industry (tho
ANF is taking some healthy bites and that stock has gone on a ripper - also wrote about that). won't be growing gang busters but mid to low teens. so PEG at slightly above 1. *okay* not great, but still better than cash.lumpier cash gen than i'd prefer for a co that's near $10 bn enterprise value, but even in a weak consumer environment i'd suspect 500 mm is a good bogey for the mkt so that's 5% rate with growth and brand.
it's a buy here, fundamentally.
but
we have a gap to just beware of in the mid 18s. so if u need to wait/ don't need to own... consider it.
and i'm sure w/ opex tmr, the chain is letting out some air that could keep this stonk px depressed still for a few days/ maybe a week.
i like the potential for a reversal into the close and continuation tmr. don't think results were so bad they merit the -16% move. the capital stack isn't like
WBA (at all!) nevermind levi has a great brand (not just a brand distributor - e.g. a mall etc.). so this is a 6/7 out of 10 idea if you're looking to swing w a decent risk reward. the risks are spelled out above. a. gap, b. more gamma out c. valuation not "cheap"/ capital stack w debt.
but it's too much for the EPS, fundamentally. so i bite small.
V
Note
closing this one for the 
NKE swing. breakeven
i don't like having multi-positions esp trades... so would rather just own
NKE for bellwether status. dunno if i'll hold this one for long either - as it's only a trade. tough to own any discretionary in this environment. only one i have more LT conviction on is 
LULU
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.