Time for sleeping LRCUSD to wake up
Updated
• Just a chart to show the similarities between this and the previous bullrun for LRCUSD.
• LRCUSD has been in a parallel channel on the weekly since Mar’20.
• LRCUSD reached the top of this channel in Feb’21, and its bottom in Jul’21.
• Using the same fib levels, and similarly applying from peak of bullrun phase 1 to bottom of mid-cycle consolidation phase, the same fib levels hit the top of the channel at approximately the same time (alts-ETH) are projected to peak.
• Hodl till $4.34 for up to a 12X potential.
• Watch weekly RSI; volume should pump when weekly RSI hits ~70.
• LRCUSD has been in a parallel channel on the weekly since Mar’20.
• LRCUSD reached the top of this channel in Feb’21, and its bottom in Jul’21.
• Using the same fib levels, and similarly applying from peak of bullrun phase 1 to bottom of mid-cycle consolidation phase, the same fib levels hit the top of the channel at approximately the same time (alts-ETH) are projected to peak.
• Hodl till $4.34 for up to a 12X potential.
• Watch weekly RSI; volume should pump when weekly RSI hits ~70.
Note
Comment: Let's complete the cup and handle on the weekly.Fortune favours the patient.
Note
Let's see if LRCUSD can close above $0.79.Note
LRCUSD just bounced off the trendline at $0.76 on the hourly. This bodes well (for now). Let's see if it will hold.Note
Aw shucks. It did not hold the line. This just means we have to wait a bit more. Always healthy to consolidate before another growth spurt.Note
Great! I've waited more than 3 months for this. Fortune favours the patient. That's why it's best not to be deterministic, so as to avoid FUDding when things don't go along our dubious speculations. LRCUSD has broken this bullrun's ATH of $0.96, and may pump till $1.5, but I hope not. RSI is overheated on the daily, and it seems that we may be hitting resistance which coincides with both the peak of the Apr'18 dead cat bounce and fib levels of the current set of impulse waves. RSI is still healthy on the weekly, so some correction is healthy. Consolidate, recharge, test current resistance as support.
Given LRCUSD's personality, Wave 5 may come fast and furious. Again, let's be patient and see if we can exceed the previous bullrun's ATH of $2.9. $4.7 sounds good to me:)
Note
• Daily RSI has exceeded the 90% mark.• Short-term traders might want to sell.
• However, the daily candles have been rather robust, atypical of previous daily candles when LRCUSD was pumped and dumped.
• More importantly, the original thesis has not been invalidated.
• The short-term financial gains are not worth the damage this will do to my emotional and scientific frames of mind.
• Keeping this answer as a TA diary to help maintain mental frame.
Note
To reiterate my comment on 2 Nov'21, I hope LRCUSD does not pump further for now. Chill and confirm 1.618Fib of $1.38 as support before pumping again.Nonetheless, what an interesting Wave 3! Don't the candles remind us of 5 Jan'18? BTC's bullrun is clearly not over yet though; what has changed for LRC is that it is now #76 by marketcap, and less pump/dumpable, especially with working tech.
Furthermore, it has developed its own personality and temperament this bullrun. I anticipate LRCUSD to peak before BTCUSD and (then) ETHUSD peak. I might be wrong, but by then the focus should be on derisking. Furthermore, as technical analysts, let's also not ignore other tools and forget the relationship between Loopring and Ethereum.
Note
* Great! LRCUSD is consolidating.* It seems to have broken under the $1.38 level.
* This is a good opportunity to improve our understanding of LRCUSD.
* Might it bounce off the 8SMA on the 4hourly (as it has been doing so since 1 Nov)?
Note
• The 8SMA on the 4hourly failed to hold as support. But similar to hypothesis testing in research studies, it is interesting to see how it failed in the context of historical price action.• LRCUSD was consolidating from 12-28 Oct'21.
• LRCUSD tested the 4h 8SMA on 29 and 30 Oct'21, but failed on the 2nd test. 20SMA crossed over 21EMA, LRCUSD turned bearish on the 4hourly, but bounced off the 21EMA. The 21EMA crossed over 20SMA and LRCUSD turned bullish. 8SMA became support again.
• Now...LRCUSD failed on the *3rd* test of the 8SMA. Might the 21EMA serve as support again, LRCUSD turn bullish, and 8SMA serve as support again till the *4th* test?
• I don't like short-term trades, after all I loaded up on LRC in Jul'21, and am considering the above just to better understand LRCUSD. However, those with a greater risk appetite can consider trading accordingly.
Note
• Another sub-thesis falsified. • Nontheless, the original thesis has not (to falsify the original thesis, the trendline lining the peaks on 12 Feb'21, 12 May'21 and 29 Aug'21 has to break.)
• That being said, LRCUSD's recent price action ought to be updated in a new post.
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