LoopringShort
LRCUSD Update - Time to say goodbye
Updated
• I know that there are people from the Loopring Reddit who are reading my analyses, and this analysis is dedicated to them.
• With more data points, the descending parallel channel can now be better drawn. LRCUSD has not left the channel yet.
• Note that channel lines have measuring implications. Once a breakout occurs from an existing price channel, prices usually travel a distance equal to the width of the channel.
• *If* this is indeed an ABC correction, and the sub-waves add strength to this hypothesis, then breaking down below the parallel channel to the vicinity of $1.2 (depending on where the parallel channel is broken). This seems positioned to lead LRCUSD to a devastating H&S pattern.
• *However*, if this is not an ABC correction, and LRCUSD does indeed break out above the parallel channel, then even if she were to break out now, she will not re-establish a price above the previous ATH from this breakout alone.
• Even if LRCUSD breaks out to the upside, if she does not pump beyond her previous ATH and enter price discovery quickly, momentum will be lost and hopium will fade.
• If LRCUSD breaks out to the downside, then the dump will be ugly indeed.
• For long-term trading, LRCUSD no longer possesses even reasonable profit potential.
• For short-term traders, you may wish to short LRCUSD.
• With more data points, the descending parallel channel can now be better drawn. LRCUSD has not left the channel yet.
• Note that channel lines have measuring implications. Once a breakout occurs from an existing price channel, prices usually travel a distance equal to the width of the channel.
• *If* this is indeed an ABC correction, and the sub-waves add strength to this hypothesis, then breaking down below the parallel channel to the vicinity of $1.2 (depending on where the parallel channel is broken). This seems positioned to lead LRCUSD to a devastating H&S pattern.
• *However*, if this is not an ABC correction, and LRCUSD does indeed break out above the parallel channel, then even if she were to break out now, she will not re-establish a price above the previous ATH from this breakout alone.
• Even if LRCUSD breaks out to the upside, if she does not pump beyond her previous ATH and enter price discovery quickly, momentum will be lost and hopium will fade.
• If LRCUSD breaks out to the downside, then the dump will be ugly indeed.
• For long-term trading, LRCUSD no longer possesses even reasonable profit potential.
• For short-term traders, you may wish to short LRCUSD.
Note
• It may not be immediately obvious, but LRC could not be said to be forming a bull flag since 19 Nov as the "flag" is overextended compared to the pole.• This is why LRCUSD's price action from 10-22 Nov should be described as being in a parallel channel instead.
• This is also why the breakout brought LRCUSD to a level the equivalent to the width of the parallel channel (as breakouts from parallel channels do), instead to a level the equivalent to the height of the pole.
• Correspondingly, as per one of the forecasted scenarios, LRCUSD could not pump beyond her previous ATH.
• Volume was low during the breakout.
• It'll be educational to watch LRCUSD for several weeks. Let's see if history repeats itself and LRCUSD peaks 2 months before BTCUSD peaks and 3 months before the bulk of alts peak.
Note
• As mentioned on 22 Nov below, BTC has been shaky, and the current correction isn't unexpected. • Since the previous bullrun, failure of the 8W SMA has led to a test of the 20W SMA. It is for this reason that I forecasted LRCUSD to dump around this time. Though I must say that this BTCUSD correction happened later this week than I expected.
• BTCUSD's 20W SMA has not been tested yet. Let's see how much more will LRCUSD correct.
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