Possible Long Term Trend Reversal in Litecoin (LTC)
Updated
This is actually my first Litecoin analysis, even though I've held a position recently since around $32. Should have posted something back then, as I was fairly confident in a breakout there. Anyway, I decided to take a look at a long term chart (and this was the best I could find on Tradingview for now). From what it looks like, Litecoin has generally been in low demand against Bitcoin throughout the last few years. However, we recently made a MAJOR long-term higher low. If we can break out from this current resistance, we could see LTC heading all the way up to the green supply zones and perhaps making a new ATH on the ratio. This means that LTC may actually be about to start a true bullish trend against Bitcoin.
Fundamentally, this trend shift would be supported by upgrades to its code that make it more desirable than Bitcoin. However, a significant failure in the market could produce a powerful breakdown here, as we are at a potential LONG TERM diagonal resistance (in pink). We have a new uptrend line forming below us as well (in pink), so if the market fails to move up soon, we may have to slide back down there or to the red demand zone. In that case, the bullish view may end up being negated.
Not financial advice, and I'm not a qualified financial advisor. This is just something I'm looking at, in terms of long term potential. May not play out. I think it's interesting, nonetheless.
-Victor Cobra
Fundamentally, this trend shift would be supported by upgrades to its code that make it more desirable than Bitcoin. However, a significant failure in the market could produce a powerful breakdown here, as we are at a potential LONG TERM diagonal resistance (in pink). We have a new uptrend line forming below us as well (in pink), so if the market fails to move up soon, we may have to slide back down there or to the red demand zone. In that case, the bullish view may end up being negated.
Not financial advice, and I'm not a qualified financial advisor. This is just something I'm looking at, in terms of long term potential. May not play out. I think it's interesting, nonetheless.
-Victor Cobra
Note
Potential bullish scenarios as seen on the USD log scale. The yellow scenario has us pulling back to test the $34-36 area now, and the green has us breaking out for a quick spike above $100 before pulling back and consolidating. Note
As you can see, the very top of that potential channel has us near the $2000 area. It would be pretty nuts if we actually made it up there.Note
looks like we've failed to break out of this major resistance for now. It's possible we could retrace all the way to 8000. That would be where the uptrend line is. The true trend reversal actually occurred 2 years ago, as you can see by the long term chart. That was when we started making higher lows. Obviously if the market wants to move up now, we will break this resistance sooner rather than later. Note
Inching back up towards the resistance line. If we make a head and shoulders pattern and drop, it's possible we will have to revisit 8000-9000 (uptrend support). However, if we blast up through it, the whole market will likely move up as well, including Bitcoin. Either way, it should tell us where the market wants to go. Note
Very close now. If we break and hold above (as well as at or above the previous high, it would be a buy signal) Note
Likewise, if we get rejected there, we may see a big selloff. I guess we'll see what happens.Note
Based on how the market is behaving, I think chances are increasing for a selloff. If this head and shoulders breaks down, look out below, because it could be a long way down. I'm seeing some mixed signals though. The fact that we've been consolidating against such a major resistance for this long is also fairly bullish, and the fact that we've broken out of our downtrend from the entire bear market in USD value. However, this could have just been a massive fake rally. I guess we'll see what happens, but I'm starting to feel a little less confident. This is the feeling I got when Bitcoin was last in the 3.4K area though, and we broke out to the upside. Note
Yet again, the feeling of uneasiness I was having was an indicator of a near-term bottom. Litecoin has surpassed the resistance, but we got rejected pretty quickly by the 200EMA on the USD chart (I believe). This means we need a bigger effort - otherwise this can turn into a fake rally. We've rallied above this resistance in the past, only to crash back down hard. A convincing push above $52 should send us towards $60 though, as I see it. Also, this pretty much confirms the original idea of this chart, which is that LTC had indeed reversed its trend against Bitcoin 2 years ago. Note
This market really does play with people's emotions. We're actually seeing a bearish divergence on the daily RSI, which may indicate that this was a fake move. I guess we'll see what happens. The market still looks bullish until proven otherwise. Note
In order to negate this divergence, we'd need to push even further up today.
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