LitecoinLong
Litecoin Longterm
Updated
As you can see, I have drawn a clear channel for Litecoin which has lasted for almost a year now. We managed to surpass the top of the channel during the huge spike in December, but this was short lived as we quickly capitulated back down to the bottom of the channel. So overall I think this trend is still in place. You can see that we have touched the top and bottom multiple times which helps to validate it.
For the most part, we have been supported by both the 50 and 100 day Moving Averages during this trend. The two times that we fell through these supports we dropped all the way down to the 200 day and the bottom of the channel, and bounced quickly back up above the 100 day. In September 2017 this was followed by some consolidation, and a massive rally to ATH's. Notice how we are starting to play out a similar scenario? We bounced off the 200 day and the bottom of the channel again perfectly, and found support above the 100 day MA.
So the question is, can we hold support above the 100 day? We do have a death cross between the 50 and 100day MA's right now, but I don't see this as too problematic because the same thing happened back in November 2017. The way I see things playing out is some more consolidation, followed by a spike up to re test ATH's. This could happen sooner then I have drawn, but I'm hoping that this move will take a little longer and give us more momentum once we finally breakout from ATH's. $600 + is my target for then this happens. If we fail to hold support above the 100 day MA, then I will look for support from the 200 day MA. This will be a critical level that we really don't want to see fail, otherwise we will have to completely re evaluate.
Hope this gives you some insight to how Litecoin could play out, good luck trading!
For the most part, we have been supported by both the 50 and 100 day Moving Averages during this trend. The two times that we fell through these supports we dropped all the way down to the 200 day and the bottom of the channel, and bounced quickly back up above the 100 day. In September 2017 this was followed by some consolidation, and a massive rally to ATH's. Notice how we are starting to play out a similar scenario? We bounced off the 200 day and the bottom of the channel again perfectly, and found support above the 100 day MA.
So the question is, can we hold support above the 100 day? We do have a death cross between the 50 and 100day MA's right now, but I don't see this as too problematic because the same thing happened back in November 2017. The way I see things playing out is some more consolidation, followed by a spike up to re test ATH's. This could happen sooner then I have drawn, but I'm hoping that this move will take a little longer and give us more momentum once we finally breakout from ATH's. $600 + is my target for then this happens. If we fail to hold support above the 100 day MA, then I will look for support from the 200 day MA. This will be a critical level that we really don't want to see fail, otherwise we will have to completely re evaluate.
Hope this gives you some insight to how Litecoin could play out, good luck trading!
Note
We've got at 2 touches from the high's and low's of the Symmetrical Triangle, with diminishing volume. This confirms this pattern, which is technically a continuation move in this instance. In theory, we are more likely to breakout the top of this pattern, but I would say there is still a good chance we could break below. If we do break below, I expect the 200 day MA to support us. This wouldn't affect the overall long term trend being bullish . If the bulls manage to break out of the top, then targets should be the distance between the widest points of the triangle. This would take us up nicely to the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement level.
Note
Quick update on LTC. As you can see, we briefly pierced my yearly trendline and bounced of the 200 day MA. Remember that this is a level we don't want to see broken otherwise a trend reversal will be considered. For now, LTC has made a fairly strong bounce with the hammer candle, followed by a another bullish engulfing stick. Let's see how the day ends, and if we can continue to make our way up from here. Obviously BTC 5.11% has a big influence over the direction of the overall market, so keep an eye on it
Note
Clearly we broke down past the 200 day MA and are way below the Blue Channel. RSI is becoming oversold so I expect some kind of correction to the upside before continuing down. Bitcoin -3.93% Dominates this market but I am also bearish for it. I can't predict how low LTC will go, but you can best believe that it could retrace as far down as the bottom of the Red Channel. It all depends on how this market moves over the next few months.
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