LitecoinShort
LTCUSD- Confirmation of Downtrend?
Updated
Hi guys, this is my first stab at charting an analysis of any kind, so I welcome any input or criticisms. While Looking at the EMA 50 Day and 200 Day lines, I've come to notice via the 4H chart that every time the 200 day crosses above the 50 day, there is a distinctive downtrend (denoted by the rectangles). Upon reaching the 192.40ish zone, the 50 day began to cross under the 200 day, which occurred approximately 8 hours ago. at the VERY LEAST, I expect that we touch 164.84, and from there, we can determine whether or not we are breaking out in a downward direction further or not. There is a possibility of it touching 144.39 again, and a slightly lesser possibility of it touching 135.48. I fully believe that we will rally down towards the low 100s, but I believe we have at least a few more days of ups and downs before that happens.
My personal expectation is that we'll be touching 215.40 before ultimately touching the low 100s, but ultimately time will tell. It's very apparent that we're still on a strong downtrend here, and we're obviously waiting for a breakout, but It seems very evident that we keep touching lower and lower highs. Definitely interested to see how the next few weeks play out.
My personal expectation is that we'll be touching 215.40 before ultimately touching the low 100s, but ultimately time will tell. It's very apparent that we're still on a strong downtrend here, and we're obviously waiting for a breakout, but It seems very evident that we keep touching lower and lower highs. Definitely interested to see how the next few weeks play out.
Trade active
I'm active in this trade, so I will continue to update you guys as I maintain my holdings.
Based on the time I initially published this idea, you'll find that this has in fact been a lucrative trade thus far. We're looking at approximately a 10 dollar dip since entry, so any point in time will still net you a nice profit. If you're as confident in this trade as I am, however, you'll see that it's approaching our first support line of interest at the 165 mark. We've been seeing some dancing between the 170-171 line, but I have no fear of it bouncing back up to 181 just yet.
My hunch is that we will be approaching the 165 range by the next complete candle, and then I believe we may see a bounce back to 170-171. For those of you that hold a larger positive, this is obviously a sexy little flip.
Since the time of publishing this chart, the EMA 200/50 spread of widened pretty significantly, leading me to believe that we are just at the start of a pretty modest dip. Do I personally believe we'll be touching 144? Yes, I do. Do I believe we'll be touching 135? Well I find that a little harder to say, but we'll have to see how this trade develops. My personal belief is that we'll be touching 96 for one final rally down before a bull run, but only time will tell.
So what to do with this information? Well, if you got into this trade upon the time I published this, you're already doing well. You can choose to call it quits at 165, but for my personal approach, I will be trying to touch the 145 mark. Remember that profit is profit, and hindsight is always 20/20, so do what you only feel comfortable with, as the market is unpredictable. For me, all signs point to a fairly significant dip developing over the next few days, but we shall see what happens.
Best of luck!
Note
First target achieved! Looks like we have a very minor support around the 158 mark, where I foresee us dancing back and forth between that and the 165 range. Beyond that, I still believe we're headed towards the 145 mark, but I forgot to include the 155 mark, which may be something to keep an eye on. I shall keep you guys up to date!Note
It seems we're now finding a pretty strong resistance at the 165 mark. It's very likely we'll be touching 145 today, depending on how hard we bust through 155.Note
So I was off a bit, but we did in fact touch 145 (roughly 143), so we've broken through two support levels now. Look to 155 being your new resistance, with 145 acting as a support. I suspect that we dance between these two again for the next day or two, then we ultimately head to 135. The EMA spread is still quite wide, although it seems to be narrowing just a touch.
I'm pretty certain at this point that we will be seeing 135, in which case we'll be heading to 96ish afterwards if it continues to push. I suppose my bias is hoping for a 96 touch, and it may or may not happen, who knows, but that would ultimately complete the parabola. Furthermore, we could even see a touch at 77, which would truly complete the parabola, but only time will tell. Remember to play it safe and trade with your brains, not your emotions!
Note
Here's an update for you guys of how I believe the next chunk of days can pan out.
Note
Well, we've had an interesting morning today, eh? I've drawn my supports and resistances, with green being most likely, yellow being moderately likely, and red being least likely.
Nearly every chart outside of the 2H and 4H is starting to look bullish, so keep an eye on the levels, because there's still a possibility of a reversal. To be honest, the levels never closed out hard enough yet to even signify a bullish run, and this may very well just be another uptick before a continued bear run. Be cautious with your trades, and be sure not to get locked out.
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