LTC/USD Bounces back into downchannel
Updated
,It's been an ugly week in the crypto world. On Monday, there were hopes that we were at the bottom of a large symmetrical triangle at 146 which is scheduled to culminate around April 15th. It dropped below the triangle to 138, and that brought the downtrend channel (Pink Lines) back into play as indicator for the week. We saw a "death cross" where the 200 EMA crossed over the 50 day EMA. All signs were bearish, and FUD ensued. On Thursday Litecoin dropped all the way to 109, and this was below the bottom of the downtrend channel (119). I believe part of the reason was the panic selling which occurred due to the death cross. Overnight we saw an increase to 120 which put us back into the bottom of the downchannel.
Currently the downchannel ranges from 118 to the 155 range on the upcoming Monday 8 am EST time slot which coincidentally is back where the large symmetrical triangle sits. We rarely see a bounce from the bottom to the top of the downchannel in such a short amount of time, but there is a strong possibility we've hit the bottom of this weeks dip. More will be determined as the US financial markets take over this morning. We've got 109 to 120 profits for the traders, so we may see some profit taking anywhere along the line. 24 hr Volume has spike (currently 890,000 range). So we've seen many shares trading hands over the past 24 hrs. We've got a short term inverse Head & Shoulder look, so a bounce to 127.50 would complete this pattern. This could help LTC continue to uptrend with targets of 138 and 150.
Of course, if the bear market continues and we drop below the downtrend channel again, FUD could take us down to the 0% Fib line from ATH at 95. There's been a 10K+ buy wall at 100, so it would be horrendous if these marks were crossed.
Note: As mentioned in previous TA's in 2017 March 31st was the beginning of the ATH run. This is just a guess, but kind of believe a spike today could be traders buying up the cheap coins to drive the price up for selling for fiat to pay 2017 cap gains taxes. It takes a few days to transfer fund from exchange to bank accts, so now is the time to "make that move". We could see an increase to take profits from yesterday followed by a selloff to fiat. In fact, during the time of writing this idea, we've dropped from 120 to 117. Let's hope it's profit taking and not a continuation of the decline. We need to get back in the downchannel at the very least.
Another factor to consider, Bitcoin has stayed below 6900 and the LTC/BTC ratio soared to +7.5%. We also saw an increase the the ETH ratio. Just a guess, but if we're looking for a rebound, we could see a shift out of BTC to the other ALTs to take advantage of the faster rises during new upswing.
As stated in previous TA's, if you believe in Litecoin, then you believe it's not going away. Keep a close eye on the action on Friday, and expect volume decrease over the weekend...which could make it easier for bears to kill any progress. Good luck trading.
This is more of an psychological idea than chart reading other than watching the downchannel and hoping for an inverse Head & Shoulders. Invest at your own risk, and try to have some Fiat on hand if we get near 100. Be careful, and good luck.
Currently the downchannel ranges from 118 to the 155 range on the upcoming Monday 8 am EST time slot which coincidentally is back where the large symmetrical triangle sits. We rarely see a bounce from the bottom to the top of the downchannel in such a short amount of time, but there is a strong possibility we've hit the bottom of this weeks dip. More will be determined as the US financial markets take over this morning. We've got 109 to 120 profits for the traders, so we may see some profit taking anywhere along the line. 24 hr Volume has spike (currently 890,000 range). So we've seen many shares trading hands over the past 24 hrs. We've got a short term inverse Head & Shoulder look, so a bounce to 127.50 would complete this pattern. This could help LTC continue to uptrend with targets of 138 and 150.
Of course, if the bear market continues and we drop below the downtrend channel again, FUD could take us down to the 0% Fib line from ATH at 95. There's been a 10K+ buy wall at 100, so it would be horrendous if these marks were crossed.
Note: As mentioned in previous TA's in 2017 March 31st was the beginning of the ATH run. This is just a guess, but kind of believe a spike today could be traders buying up the cheap coins to drive the price up for selling for fiat to pay 2017 cap gains taxes. It takes a few days to transfer fund from exchange to bank accts, so now is the time to "make that move". We could see an increase to take profits from yesterday followed by a selloff to fiat. In fact, during the time of writing this idea, we've dropped from 120 to 117. Let's hope it's profit taking and not a continuation of the decline. We need to get back in the downchannel at the very least.
Another factor to consider, Bitcoin has stayed below 6900 and the LTC/BTC ratio soared to +7.5%. We also saw an increase the the ETH ratio. Just a guess, but if we're looking for a rebound, we could see a shift out of BTC to the other ALTs to take advantage of the faster rises during new upswing.
As stated in previous TA's, if you believe in Litecoin, then you believe it's not going away. Keep a close eye on the action on Friday, and expect volume decrease over the weekend...which could make it easier for bears to kill any progress. Good luck trading.
This is more of an psychological idea than chart reading other than watching the downchannel and hoping for an inverse Head & Shoulders. Invest at your own risk, and try to have some Fiat on hand if we get near 100. Be careful, and good luck.
Note
Edit. We need to break out of the new short term downchannel. It could take us to 95
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