LTC IN DEPTH 5/6/19: Equilibrium with a Good Trading Range.
Updated
Hello traders,
TraderNoxtreme back with you weekly Litecoin in depth. Please like this idea if you agree. Subscribe if you want more.
Sentiment:
Crypto seems to have shaken off the news from last week.
Ill be honest; I took the week off last week from my in depths because the fud was making me doubt what the charts were telling me. It was a mistake to not act on what I was seeing against my emotions because I would have come out with a good profit. I simply could not ignore the news because the underlying issue Tether poses is terrifying to me at its core. Every time I would write that something looked bullish in the chart, fear would blot it out. As traders we are supposed to take note of news and move on but I didn’t feel I could give you an unbiased view.
It seems that the fud screen has pretty much cleared in the chats, youtubes, and other media outlets at this point but for me; Tether is a ticking time bomb in crypto as a whole and I will be keeping close tabs on it.
Why I am concerned?
Although complicated, the news is pretty straight forward. IFinex (the Tether printer attached to Bitfinex) was hit with a legal case by the NY General Attorney saying that they did not disclose an 850 million dollar loss. IFinex says they did but the loss is real. Funds were seized by an offshore bank back in Aug 2018 (I think). In itself this is not all that big a deal but let me explain the base fear (The big deal) behind this. I know there is A LOT more to the Tether, IFinex, NY AG, drama so forgive me if I’m messing up some facts or leaving things out. Put on your tinfoil hat for a second, its story time.
What if a large chunk of the money we have been told is coming into Bitcoin is actually monopoly money? What if an unregulated player in the space (there is no regulation in this space) has been printing fake money and funneling that money into BTC since 2017. Being that BTC has been base pair for most coins in the past this would equate to the entire market being built on stilts. Now, what if it was announced that Tether truly is not backed at all even though IFinex is now saying it is 74% backed (this is a change from the previous 100%). Honestly, this will scare a lot of money out of the space IMO. The market could brush a reality like this off but I am not wanting to bet on it.
I think it is very unlikely we will get an announcement that Tether is not backed any time soon if ever but this, to me, is a major danger in the space in general. Exchanges might simply be running crypto prices up for their own gains. As we see more and more stable coins hit the markets the chances get higher and higher that one of them could simply be monopoly money.
Comment below on this.
Lets move on:
LTC Weekly: Please let it be real!
This chart leans me bullish simply because of the correlation. We cannot deny the correlation between August 2017 price action and April 2019. We have our initial spike then three weeks of pull back. Then 1 week green. If this continues, we should have a slightly red week this week followed by a nice green week next week. We have a 57 RSI which is IDENTICAL to 2017 again. This chart has me pretty excited because if history continues to follow then we are in for a massive run starting in 6 WEEKS. That is the one you do not want to miss or be short on. I see us testing back down to the 12EMA at about 66.50 and then bouncing back up close to our current level this week.
LTC 1D: Equilibrium after triangle break.
The Tether news dropped us 20% on LTC but we made a strong and swift recovery that briefly hit the level we fell from. The bounce broke the downward sloping resistance, gained the 50MA as support and put us back in our previous, mid-term, bullish channel. I was following an RSI downtrend during the dump looking for an oversold bounce entry but we didn’t get oversold on the daily. Price does seem to be respecting the bottom of our bullish channel loosely but I don’t expect it to continue. I believe we are entering a tightening range that will last through the week. Our current base of support is 65.41 and our breakout price is 81.54. RSI is neutral at 50. We did break our RSI downtrend from last week so this is a good indicator that the tether fud has passed for now. MacD looking to make a bullish cross. We have the 50 MA helping the bulls out as support. We currently have roughly 10% to the upside and 10% to the downside in our equilibrium range (pink lines). Looking for a higher low around 73 to better confirm we are entering a tightening range.
Make no mistake; We are neutral at what could potentially be just over the top of a midterm bullish trend after a 15-month brutal bear market. Bulls have room to the downside to maintain their mid-term dominance and it is taking very little volume to move this market. All it would take is some bulls to move out of the way and we could drop fast. Keep an eye out for BTC to lose its strength because it could signal the bulls are getting out of the way.
LTC 4hr: Bulls Battle for Control.
You can clearly see the bulls battling to keep control of the mid term trend. Loss of 65.41 would be very bearish but a break of 81.54 would be very bullish and could indicate we are going to test 100 again. RSI is again neutral at 51. MacD is bearish but curling back to try a bullish cross again. I see us testing back down to 73.55 or 70.48 then bouncing back to 78 where we likely reject temporarily. This fits with what I was seeing on the weekly. You will see some red lines showing a potential reverse head and shoulders also.
LTC 1 hr: Short Term Trading Within a Range
We have a bit of a bullish outlook on the 1 hr. RSI at 58, bullish MacD cross with some angle on it. We have what looks to be strong support at 73.50. We also have our previous bullish channel bottom as support and the 50 MA at 54.80. A retest of 78.29 looks likely but I anticipate a lower high rather then a breakout unless we get a positive news catalyst. Another perspective could be we are forming a reverse head and shoulders which would also fit our weekly hypothesis.
Closing Note:
LTC is great for classical TA. MOST of my lines on this chart have not changed in weeks or even months and the price just goes from range to range. When you see things like this in your charts you know you are getting the basics of support and resistance TA right. Predicting where we go next is where TA becomes and art. This is where the “magic formulas” are being sold. There are literally millions of methods people use to predict the next move from these base ranges and the reality is that strategies will perform differently from one person to the next because trades are decisions made in the moment. You can and should pre plan ahead of time but in the end, it is my opinion, you need to have some flexibility in your plan. Execution needs to be based on what the chart is showing you at the moment. LEARN SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE TA then develop your own strategy based on what you see.
Hopefully you enjoyed this week’s analysis. If you found it helpful, give it a LIKE, if you want more, SUBSCRIBE. If you want to team up please comment below or PM me. If you want me to do in depth on another coin or stock ticker please comment below.
TraderNoxtreme back with you weekly Litecoin in depth. Please like this idea if you agree. Subscribe if you want more.
Sentiment:
Crypto seems to have shaken off the news from last week.
Ill be honest; I took the week off last week from my in depths because the fud was making me doubt what the charts were telling me. It was a mistake to not act on what I was seeing against my emotions because I would have come out with a good profit. I simply could not ignore the news because the underlying issue Tether poses is terrifying to me at its core. Every time I would write that something looked bullish in the chart, fear would blot it out. As traders we are supposed to take note of news and move on but I didn’t feel I could give you an unbiased view.
It seems that the fud screen has pretty much cleared in the chats, youtubes, and other media outlets at this point but for me; Tether is a ticking time bomb in crypto as a whole and I will be keeping close tabs on it.
Why I am concerned?
Although complicated, the news is pretty straight forward. IFinex (the Tether printer attached to Bitfinex) was hit with a legal case by the NY General Attorney saying that they did not disclose an 850 million dollar loss. IFinex says they did but the loss is real. Funds were seized by an offshore bank back in Aug 2018 (I think). In itself this is not all that big a deal but let me explain the base fear (The big deal) behind this. I know there is A LOT more to the Tether, IFinex, NY AG, drama so forgive me if I’m messing up some facts or leaving things out. Put on your tinfoil hat for a second, its story time.
What if a large chunk of the money we have been told is coming into Bitcoin is actually monopoly money? What if an unregulated player in the space (there is no regulation in this space) has been printing fake money and funneling that money into BTC since 2017. Being that BTC has been base pair for most coins in the past this would equate to the entire market being built on stilts. Now, what if it was announced that Tether truly is not backed at all even though IFinex is now saying it is 74% backed (this is a change from the previous 100%). Honestly, this will scare a lot of money out of the space IMO. The market could brush a reality like this off but I am not wanting to bet on it.
I think it is very unlikely we will get an announcement that Tether is not backed any time soon if ever but this, to me, is a major danger in the space in general. Exchanges might simply be running crypto prices up for their own gains. As we see more and more stable coins hit the markets the chances get higher and higher that one of them could simply be monopoly money.
Comment below on this.
Lets move on:
LTC Weekly: Please let it be real!
This chart leans me bullish simply because of the correlation. We cannot deny the correlation between August 2017 price action and April 2019. We have our initial spike then three weeks of pull back. Then 1 week green. If this continues, we should have a slightly red week this week followed by a nice green week next week. We have a 57 RSI which is IDENTICAL to 2017 again. This chart has me pretty excited because if history continues to follow then we are in for a massive run starting in 6 WEEKS. That is the one you do not want to miss or be short on. I see us testing back down to the 12EMA at about 66.50 and then bouncing back up close to our current level this week.
LTC 1D: Equilibrium after triangle break.
The Tether news dropped us 20% on LTC but we made a strong and swift recovery that briefly hit the level we fell from. The bounce broke the downward sloping resistance, gained the 50MA as support and put us back in our previous, mid-term, bullish channel. I was following an RSI downtrend during the dump looking for an oversold bounce entry but we didn’t get oversold on the daily. Price does seem to be respecting the bottom of our bullish channel loosely but I don’t expect it to continue. I believe we are entering a tightening range that will last through the week. Our current base of support is 65.41 and our breakout price is 81.54. RSI is neutral at 50. We did break our RSI downtrend from last week so this is a good indicator that the tether fud has passed for now. MacD looking to make a bullish cross. We have the 50 MA helping the bulls out as support. We currently have roughly 10% to the upside and 10% to the downside in our equilibrium range (pink lines). Looking for a higher low around 73 to better confirm we are entering a tightening range.
Make no mistake; We are neutral at what could potentially be just over the top of a midterm bullish trend after a 15-month brutal bear market. Bulls have room to the downside to maintain their mid-term dominance and it is taking very little volume to move this market. All it would take is some bulls to move out of the way and we could drop fast. Keep an eye out for BTC to lose its strength because it could signal the bulls are getting out of the way.
LTC 4hr: Bulls Battle for Control.
You can clearly see the bulls battling to keep control of the mid term trend. Loss of 65.41 would be very bearish but a break of 81.54 would be very bullish and could indicate we are going to test 100 again. RSI is again neutral at 51. MacD is bearish but curling back to try a bullish cross again. I see us testing back down to 73.55 or 70.48 then bouncing back to 78 where we likely reject temporarily. This fits with what I was seeing on the weekly. You will see some red lines showing a potential reverse head and shoulders also.
LTC 1 hr: Short Term Trading Within a Range
We have a bit of a bullish outlook on the 1 hr. RSI at 58, bullish MacD cross with some angle on it. We have what looks to be strong support at 73.50. We also have our previous bullish channel bottom as support and the 50 MA at 54.80. A retest of 78.29 looks likely but I anticipate a lower high rather then a breakout unless we get a positive news catalyst. Another perspective could be we are forming a reverse head and shoulders which would also fit our weekly hypothesis.
Closing Note:
LTC is great for classical TA. MOST of my lines on this chart have not changed in weeks or even months and the price just goes from range to range. When you see things like this in your charts you know you are getting the basics of support and resistance TA right. Predicting where we go next is where TA becomes and art. This is where the “magic formulas” are being sold. There are literally millions of methods people use to predict the next move from these base ranges and the reality is that strategies will perform differently from one person to the next because trades are decisions made in the moment. You can and should pre plan ahead of time but in the end, it is my opinion, you need to have some flexibility in your plan. Execution needs to be based on what the chart is showing you at the moment. LEARN SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE TA then develop your own strategy based on what you see.
Hopefully you enjoyed this week’s analysis. If you found it helpful, give it a LIKE, if you want more, SUBSCRIBE. If you want to team up please comment below or PM me. If you want me to do in depth on another coin or stock ticker please comment below.
Note
FORGOT TO LINK THE INDIVIDUAL CHARTS. HERE THEY ARELTC Weekly: Please let it be real!
LTC 1D: Equilibrium after triangle break.
LTC 4hr: Bulls Battle for Control.
LTC 1 hr: Short Term Trading Within a Range
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.