LTC In Depth 4/22/19: Holding the line before we push back.
Updated
HELLO,
Trader Noxtreme back with you weekly in depth LTC analysis. PLEASE like, subscribe, and comment. Trying to shorten these up a bit so let’s get to it.
Weekly – History is our guide… Until its not.
This chart has me a bit excited honestly but I will do my best to remain objective. We have done pretty much exactly what I was expecting since my first in depth for April.We can squeeze another small red week without breaking our 74ish resistance. We needed to cool off daily/Weekly RSI before we could consider long positions as traders and right now the setup looks pretty good. This being said our RSI is still at 60 so I hope to see that get a little lower (50 or so) on the weekly before continuing up (slowly at first). Bulls want to hold 74 to keep the strength of our April bull move but we can lose this and fall to the 50 MA around 61 and still remain bullish. Break of 60.27 will likely accelerate us down to mid 55 psychological resistance followed by 50 then 47 actual resistance. If we get to these levels I will be fully bearish again. This week I hope for sideways with a slightly bearish lean. The 50 ma is sitting right at our 60.27 support which has me a little nervous we could get a big wick or even candle close down there. This is 20% to the downside so if we see that a lot of the weak hands will fold potentially causing a bearish chain reaction. Although I am cautiously optimistic we are at SIGNIFICANT risk right now as we can make this drop and still maintain our 2019 bullish trend! Bulls may not be motivated to hold.
Daily – Scout our resistance. Attack later.
The daily is looking like a large descending triangle now. We broke bearish yesterday out of a 10 day ascending triangle formation that started on the 11th. I’ve been generous with the top sloping resistance for our descending triangle because I believe we won’t break it for about 10-14 more days (assuming we break it bullish at all). I’m hoping for a retest of the top of the triangle or the red resistance box between 78.96 and 80.91 this week but I expect the test to reject so we can get one more small red candle on the weekly. RSI is sitting at 49 and declining. MacD shows bears are in control currently but not by a lot. Volume is LOW which means price can swing quickly. 12MA is about to cross the 26 bearish. 50 and 200 MA are farther away then bulls would like. 200 ma is now sloping up which is a change that has happened in April. This is another solid sign that we might continue bullish long term.
4 hour - Trench Warfare. Volatility incoming!
RSI 39 and trying to climb out of oversold after the 7.25% dump yesterday. MacD is bearish and appears to be rejecting a bullish cross. I was concerned that we were going to fall back into our old ascending channel for the initial April bull move and we did. This means we have less support and more resistance to break. My experience is that channels and triangles do not necessarily translate to future support or resistance once they are broken but bulls should be aware that we just got a new/old potential resistance and it does look like we are respecting that trend line. We have the 12, 26 and 50 MA all squeezed together and we have the 200 coming up to potentially join the party. Most of you probably know this can mean a very large move is coming. Lastly we can see that the 200ma acted as support on the 4hr during our dump yesterday. This is great news for the bulls as it will provide extra support to the downside which is NEEDED in our current situation. EVERYTHING is squeezing to a breaking point; this is very clear!
I would not call this bullish or bearish (price action bearish, indicators bullish lean, support resistance bearish lean. There is clearly a battle happening on the 4 hr and we are coming down to the wire.
1 hour - Building a base of support?
Don’t really need to change my drawings for the 1 hr. Looks like an ascending broadening wedge using the top of our old channel as resistance. I didn’t draw the bottom of the wedge because it’s easy to imagine. These patterns lean bullish and can provide good short term or swing trades. Assuming we test the top of our triangle (seen on the 4 hr and daily) we have 11% upside and 10% downside (assuming support at the bottom of our previous channel) or 2.3% downside if you assume the 200 will act as support again on the 4hr.
RSI is 44. MacD is bullish but unsure. Looks like it will coast to the 0 line. Notable that the 12, 26 and 50 ma just crossed the 200 bearish on the drop yesterday. Again, look for them all to squeeze for a good trade. I’m seeing a good short term bullish trade here to be honest but the only thing keeping me from taking it is that our resistance is heavy. I think it is more likely we hit the red resistance box and consolidate within it, then drop back to around 75 near the end of the week, rather than going to test the top of the triangle. This would be the more IDEAL long setup as well.
Alright, trying to save some time this week so hopefully I didn’t miss anything. PLEASE tell me if I did or if you have a different outlook. I want to team up with a group of traders this year and crush it.
Like and subscribe if you want to support the dream. Comment because you can :)
Trader Noxtreme back with you weekly in depth LTC analysis. PLEASE like, subscribe, and comment. Trying to shorten these up a bit so let’s get to it.
Weekly – History is our guide… Until its not.
This chart has me a bit excited honestly but I will do my best to remain objective. We have done pretty much exactly what I was expecting since my first in depth for April.We can squeeze another small red week without breaking our 74ish resistance. We needed to cool off daily/Weekly RSI before we could consider long positions as traders and right now the setup looks pretty good. This being said our RSI is still at 60 so I hope to see that get a little lower (50 or so) on the weekly before continuing up (slowly at first). Bulls want to hold 74 to keep the strength of our April bull move but we can lose this and fall to the 50 MA around 61 and still remain bullish. Break of 60.27 will likely accelerate us down to mid 55 psychological resistance followed by 50 then 47 actual resistance. If we get to these levels I will be fully bearish again. This week I hope for sideways with a slightly bearish lean. The 50 ma is sitting right at our 60.27 support which has me a little nervous we could get a big wick or even candle close down there. This is 20% to the downside so if we see that a lot of the weak hands will fold potentially causing a bearish chain reaction. Although I am cautiously optimistic we are at SIGNIFICANT risk right now as we can make this drop and still maintain our 2019 bullish trend! Bulls may not be motivated to hold.
Daily – Scout our resistance. Attack later.
The daily is looking like a large descending triangle now. We broke bearish yesterday out of a 10 day ascending triangle formation that started on the 11th. I’ve been generous with the top sloping resistance for our descending triangle because I believe we won’t break it for about 10-14 more days (assuming we break it bullish at all). I’m hoping for a retest of the top of the triangle or the red resistance box between 78.96 and 80.91 this week but I expect the test to reject so we can get one more small red candle on the weekly. RSI is sitting at 49 and declining. MacD shows bears are in control currently but not by a lot. Volume is LOW which means price can swing quickly. 12MA is about to cross the 26 bearish. 50 and 200 MA are farther away then bulls would like. 200 ma is now sloping up which is a change that has happened in April. This is another solid sign that we might continue bullish long term.
4 hour - Trench Warfare. Volatility incoming!
RSI 39 and trying to climb out of oversold after the 7.25% dump yesterday. MacD is bearish and appears to be rejecting a bullish cross. I was concerned that we were going to fall back into our old ascending channel for the initial April bull move and we did. This means we have less support and more resistance to break. My experience is that channels and triangles do not necessarily translate to future support or resistance once they are broken but bulls should be aware that we just got a new/old potential resistance and it does look like we are respecting that trend line. We have the 12, 26 and 50 MA all squeezed together and we have the 200 coming up to potentially join the party. Most of you probably know this can mean a very large move is coming. Lastly we can see that the 200ma acted as support on the 4hr during our dump yesterday. This is great news for the bulls as it will provide extra support to the downside which is NEEDED in our current situation. EVERYTHING is squeezing to a breaking point; this is very clear!
I would not call this bullish or bearish (price action bearish, indicators bullish lean, support resistance bearish lean. There is clearly a battle happening on the 4 hr and we are coming down to the wire.
1 hour - Building a base of support?
Don’t really need to change my drawings for the 1 hr. Looks like an ascending broadening wedge using the top of our old channel as resistance. I didn’t draw the bottom of the wedge because it’s easy to imagine. These patterns lean bullish and can provide good short term or swing trades. Assuming we test the top of our triangle (seen on the 4 hr and daily) we have 11% upside and 10% downside (assuming support at the bottom of our previous channel) or 2.3% downside if you assume the 200 will act as support again on the 4hr.
RSI is 44. MacD is bullish but unsure. Looks like it will coast to the 0 line. Notable that the 12, 26 and 50 ma just crossed the 200 bearish on the drop yesterday. Again, look for them all to squeeze for a good trade. I’m seeing a good short term bullish trade here to be honest but the only thing keeping me from taking it is that our resistance is heavy. I think it is more likely we hit the red resistance box and consolidate within it, then drop back to around 75 near the end of the week, rather than going to test the top of the triangle. This would be the more IDEAL long setup as well.
Alright, trying to save some time this week so hopefully I didn’t miss anything. PLEASE tell me if I did or if you have a different outlook. I want to team up with a group of traders this year and crush it.
Like and subscribe if you want to support the dream. Comment because you can :)
Note
Skipping the in depths this week as I want to shift some focus to stocks. Bitfinex fud in combination with a clear need for healthy consolidation has price falling farther then expected on alts. At this point consolidation is still healthy on LTC but we are on the edge of losing our short term bullish trend. We will still be mid term bullish but long and short term could go bearish if we break 60.27. Technicals are pointing to the downside with the exception of our historical correlation which suggests we should start a bounce this week. Gut says relief rally incoming but FUD says otherwise. Stay strong and make sure you have a plan for both bull and bear cases.
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