Litecoin (LTC), imminent collapse to $30?

Updated

And possibly below $10 after that?

Most if not all Alt-tokens have returned to their 2017 lows with 95% to 98% corrections since 2021. Pick any token popular at that time:

1) DASH.. 95% correction with a return to $25 in 2023 as it was in 2017. Inflation adjusted, the price should be $19! A bucket of expired sardines in a Norwegian Fish-market has gained more value.

2) XLM -90%
3) HBAR -95%
4) ADA -95%
5) NEO -95%
6) ETH -75% (massively bearish still!)
7) SOL -96%

It is everywhere you look, 95% corrections are all over.

Currently Litecoin is at an 85% correction. 95% takes price action to $15. Inflation adjusted, less than $10.

The technical analysis also supports the outlook. On the above 10 day chart:

a) A significant trend-line support has broken (orange line). Over the last 10 years Litecoin has enjoyed a continuous uptrend. The support has now failed AND confirmed. Yes price action could rally to $130-140, the bulls would get excited. Regardless, breaking this confirmed resistance will not be easy.

b) The 2nd bear flag breakout. It has confirmed. A 70% correction from the exit point measures to $28.

c) If support at $28 does not confirm, the next support is just under $10, the full 95% correction like everything else.

Is it possible price action continues sideways? Sure.
Is it probable? No.

Ww

Note

The market is pumping and LTC is.. poke poke.. do something. Why not price go up?

Special Agent Litecoin: When convention and science offer us no answers, might we not finally turn to the fantastic as a plausibility?

Special Agent reality: What I find fantastic is any notion that there are answers beyond the realm of science. The answers are there. You just have to know where to look.

Don't worry, there is a good chance some up will print in the next few weeks. However do give your attention to the main argument of the idea, nothing has changed.

2-month LTC-BTC pair

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The first 2-week Gravestone DOJI candle to print in history of Litecoin price action. Unless you can see another? I'm not sure I do.

1) The candle confirms with a following red candle on the 2-week. Therefore watch what prints next until the year end, it is the life or death of this idea.
2) The candle prints in a rising wedge formation. Bearish.
3) The candle prints as bear flag resistance is tested. Bearish with bearish bits.

Such candles printing on this time frame should not be shrugged off. They are significant warnings of a trend shift in the market. And no, this will not impact the entire market as many allude in the comments below. Comments from the Litecoin faithful are amusing though, keep them coming. I like chuckle.

"You must be BRAND NEW to crypto and fairly new to TA. But your enthusiasm is respected, even though you have no idea what you are doing."

2-week

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Final warning....

A 2-week Death Cross has confirmed. You can even see the 2-week Gravestone DOJI candle that has printed as resistance under the 2-week/50-day SMA.

I can see from comments below the faithful will never accept this. Never forget the terms and conditions when you're married to a project, until death do you part!

2-week chart

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As the end of the year approaches I like to drift through the 2-month charts as I'm watching Die Hard for the umpteenth time whilst nursing a wee dram.
Latterly there is countless messages on this idea "Stop spreading FUD!". Too many messages to count, can't be bothered reading. Safe to say folks are taking umbrage with the forecast.

A 2 month bearish engulfing has now printed. Look left. Look how well the BE3 mimics BE2. There is little else to say, emotions aside, the chart is very clear.

Be Long when price action touches $5 ;-)

2-month bearish engulfing

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And so it begins. Wicked to $57 today. Where wicks go bodies surely follow.

Note

Price action absolutely must close above $80 dollars before the end of the month, 8 days from now. It shall be a confirmed break of market structure on the monthly chart should it fail to do so
After that there is no support until $30. And that is not guaranteed to hold. $5 after that!

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Hours remaining before January comes to a close, can price action close above $80 before it is too late?
If you're a bull you really do not want the red candle that is currently printing on the monthly close.

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Is Litecoin about to wake up and join the party?

Nah... back to sleep.

In the last update A bearish engulfing candle for January printed. There is 7 day in February for that damage to be undone.

At this moment in time the confirmation appears fairly strong. Price should correct below $20 on confirmation.

Monthly

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To void this idea price action must close a 2-week candle above $130.

Price action has now confirmed the first 2-week death cross in the history of LTC price action. Avoid listening to the moon boys in the comments.

2-week

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After 1029 days price action breaks through resistance. A status many alt tokens achieved over a year ago. What happens next is unlikely to be surprising. As with other alt tokens the resistance breakout was followed by a support test several months later. It is likely price actions slides down this past resistance until the $30 target area.

weekly

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Not changed this flag since it was drawn above... interesting to see price action test past support as resistance.

If you remain a bull, you need to see a weekly close inside the flag, not under.

1-week

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Remember what was said above... you cannot see a weekly candle close under this flag and remain bullish.

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Do you know what candle this is printing on the 10 day chart?
The print confirms on Thursday, March 21st.
Look left, it is not the first time a candle like this has printed.

10-day

Now if we zoom out and see where this candle is printing...

10-day

And remember $30 is the first support, it does not mean it will confirm.

Note

Bulls, you need price action to jump up and over 115 in the next 72hrs to stop that hammer candle from printing. Do give it your attention.

Trade closed manually

Yeah, well done Litecoin bulls, you averted the 10-day hammer candle from printing. A run to $150 (the next resistance) can now be expected.

Unbelievable as it sounds this idea is not voided with a run to 150, but it does not make sense to keep it active during the up-tick.

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Weekly candle confirms bear flag resistance.

It is unclear to me how the forecast is avoided without price action entering the flag and that's not happening whilst Grayscale are selling.

Weekly

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Last week a new 3 week candle printed. It confirmed the previous 3 week resistance candle.

Don't shoot the messenger, I just work here...

3 week

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Note

As the market rips higher, Litecoin holders celebrate a move from 80 to 82 dollars.

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Weekly GRM support confirmed. That is a bullish signal. Come on Litecoin bulls, you can do it.

In order to void the idea as it stands, price action above and holding 130 dollars on the weekly is required to print. A strong rejection from the 120 area confirms the idea.

Note

With a new month new data prints. The downtrend in price action confirmed with the monthly Gaussian channel changing to red for the very first time.

Focus on the blue arrows. Regardless of stock, crypto, whatever asset you study a confirmation of support or resistance on the mid line Gaussian channel shall with high probability result in a strong move to test the upper or lower side of the channel.

As such, price action has confirmed resistance from the mid-line. The lower lower channel rests on $30 at this time. However just like the upper side tests with continuation there is no guarantee price action stops its descent after breaking $30.

There’s been so many strong and clear indications of a strong reversal throughout this ideas and yet the resistance to it is as equally strong. Emotions are a money killer.

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Was that the end of the bull run for LTC?

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This next move to $60 might tickle...

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Litecoin bulls, you cannot allow this weekly candle to print outside the flag. Watch it closely.

weekly

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July 29th. The only date Litecoin bulls can have in there calendar now. On this day, does a candle body print below past support on the 2 week symmetrical triangle?

If that happens a new target is made for $8 to $10

2 week

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The July 29th date still stands. A few messages asking if the idea remains valid.

On the 3 week chart a candle body broke through support. A candle body cannot print under support and bulls remain bullish, 100% emotion.

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Only $34 to go.
Do you ever notice when the market rallies up, Litecoin does not.
But when the market does into reverse, Litecoin holders sell sell sell.

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$24 to go

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$20 to go ;-)

This idea should have been that canary in the coal mine for the wider market.
When the target is struck it would stand to reason many alt token position would be offering a good opportunity.

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**Target update**, now $25

Perfect bear flag exit on the 2 week with reliable forecast.

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The rising wedge confirmation takes price action to $50 area. Onwards and downwards.

3 days ago

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In response to a message as the market prints double digit greens.. "Is your LTC idea now invalid?"

Sorry, no. The 2 day chart below continues to be bearish.

without_worries

BTC
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Weblink: patreon.com/withoutworries

Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR

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