So I have been talking about this already in my last idea, but I figured I'd start a new one with this as the cover page. I think LTC has a falling wedge formation on the daily chart, ABCDE, having just been rejected from the downtrend line at D. We haven't closed a candle at 100$ yet on the daily chart. I think we need to see a candle close on the daily chart at 100$, at E, where we can see a wick down to the 85-90$ area to test the rising bottom trendline. If LTC breaks out of the top trendline, then this viewpoint will have been invalidated. for now, I think it's time for LTC to move back down to that rising blue line. but we shall see.
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the cover chart got a bit skewed because I loaded it on my phone.. this one has straighter lines
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fib retracement levels from last bottom to last top are pretty much a road map of supports and resistances. I'd throw one more in there at 124.50 as that level has been pretty reactive.Comment
better positioning
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bee expecting a third wave of correction, we may have entered it now.. let's see..
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also still watching forming H&S.. target 120ish
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actually.. target for the H&S is 125.. Im used to using dollar amounts but since this chart is log scale I used a ruler to measure the head lol.Comment
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when viewed on smaller time scale, we can see that LTC broke down the uptrend line, bounced on the fib retrace level, and has been pinballing back and forth in the little gap between them
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on standard scale chart target for H&S is 117$, so I'm back on the 117-120 area for a downside target if 141-142 area is broken downComment
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it's a tad loosely drawn.. lol. but you can get the ideaComment
just for fun I stretched it out further..based off of the 2014 BTC crash chart
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moving right along..
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the line we just bounced from is important.. you can see it connects many big important tops and bottoms. and also forms a parallel channel to the lower blue trend line
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scroll up to see all recent updates.. I update often and post more than one chart per point some times. I think this line can be considered the true Head and shoulders neckline, if this line is broken, then a major line is broken.Comment
one more chart- so we can see that we also had a similar trend line that was broken resulting in our last big series of drops.
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I have added a lot of charts tonight.. make sure to scroll up to see this entire update.
When I extrapolate these two lines back, they meet together at the baseline at 90$.
Lots of arrows pointing at 90. Gonna be really interesting to see how reality plays out. the chart is pretty much drawing itself
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even the two blue lines - current top at 165 and latest bottom at 112, those blue lines go back and meet at 90Comment
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LTC bounced at the neckline (blue arrow), then went up to retest the support that broke resulting in the last drop (green arrows),and now breaking down the rising wedge (red arrow)Comment
red and yellow circled area: Litecoin cash fork.
Big red arrow: BCH fork announced to take place on May 15. forks being used to manipulate the market?
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When the LTC fork occurred LTC was leading the pack and the other coins made similar weaker moves.. and now that BCH is forking, BCH is making a strong move while the other coins make similar weaker moves.Comment
Buy a bunch of coins, announce a fork.Comment
each red arrow represents a hard fork announcement date or a hard fork, most of them are announcement dates..
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we broke out of the top of the big down channel.. on log scale.. so my idea appears to have been invalidated.. my approach to things will be drastically different going forward, may just start looking for forks lol.
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sorry I hadn't properly copied the link.. if we hold outside the channel, my idea is invalid
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I bought the log channel breakout with a stop just below, I can't claim to have seen this first, but if this inverse H&S breaks out and confirms a 4hr candle above 165, then LTC can see 220-225 ish by May 15th when the BCH fork happens and a selloff ensues lolComment
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PS. to avoid being irresponsible. The timeline for the 220-225 target being may 15th is more of a joke and less of an actual prediction, although that would not be surprising.Comment
I think if we break this green trend line, we can possibly revisit the top of the blue log channel line and the bottom of the current up channel at the same time.. 152.5 ish
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that would be a close below 160Comment
if 160 were to hold I could see a repeat of the last pattern looking like this
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now is a good time to watch for a bounce or a break.. of the 200 ema on the 4hr chart.. log scale. because our last couple of bounces were on this average, and because it lines up with the top of the downtrend channel, the thick blue line. it looks like a nice target for what would be a possible a-b-c correction
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we also are approaching the trendline on the rsi.Comment
so I kept updating this idea in case it became potentially valid again later, which, it may have. lol. this corrective triangle is what makes sense to me here. to retest the 1200 EMA and then later in the triangle the Log downtrend channel line. (thick blue) watching for this and playing it until it becomes invalidated
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I have price action trapped between the top of the Log scale downtrend channel, and the top of the regular scale downtrend channel. So I still have this as a wave 4 triangle that is retesting the breakout point, moving into wave 5 down. unless price action goes back through the 1200 EMA and the top of the log channel, which would be super bullish and confirm that we just completed a three wave down correction. until then, still looking for further downside. Just sitting and watching for now
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If LTC continues above the 200 EMA on the 4hr chart and then above this last line of resistance at 151-152 ish and closes, I may consider going long there (red arrow)
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(top right red arrow)Comment
so price action was rejected from 152 area, forced back into bearish territory. now appears to be seeking new lows.. target 117-118 is now in play. RSI trend breaks have been exceptional in announcing directional changes (red arrows on rsi)
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for right now, I see a downtrend break and retest, I see a series of bear flags, and I see price action caught between some pretty hefty support and some pretty heavy resistance. If LTC drops from here and breaks 130 I will be waiting for a chance to buy around 124.5 with a target around 131.5.
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a hard fork of BTC was announced at the red arrows, so am watching out for random unwarranted bullishness here.. lol
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the price has been bouncing up and down between the downtrend line on the log chart and the downtrend line on the standard chart (thick blue descending lines. the 50 ema has been pushing down, forming a steeper downtrend than the log channel line. so am watching for this potential falling wedge -down to 120 area
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I had noticed that with the first touching of the lower trend line here, the pink arrow, there was an early bottom on the rsi- the blue arrow on the rsi chart. correlates with a higher low leading to the bottom/ touching of the trend line at the pink arrow on the 1hr candle chart. which, is part of an uptrend on the rsi. we have a trend bottom on the rsi at the orange arrow, but price action has not yet reached the bottom of the current falling wedge/triangle. and the heavy support at 124.50. (blue line) I'm guessing we may see a bounce and steady rise in rsi, indicated by the pink line I drew in there, while price finds the support/wedge bottom at 124/125. (small red arrow on 1hr candle chart.)Comment
read above and see chart above
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so we have price back above support at 124 ish, green arrow, and a trend break on the rsi.. the trend breaks on the rsi have been dead giveaways for bounces.. lets see if everything goes to plan here
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trend break on the rsi is the blue arrowComment
well, that didn't last long..Comment
I see a head and shoulders having broken down with a target in the 80-85 range, which brings it down to the bottom trend line - worth noting.
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I have re-adjusted the top trend line to fit all tops, seeing the first two tops at the ATH as thrust. This H&S target at 80-85 scratches all my itches. can't wait to see this all play out
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this channel looks nice.. see a trend break on the rsi and a channel bottom, support touching. may be getting a bounce here.. a revisit of the top of this channel would be in the 130 ish area
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also could see it run flat back to the top of the channel.. something like this. then batch the bottom of the channel again at 100, and interestingly the bottom line of this channel strikes the lower trend line at 85 ish..
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small H&S on the 5 minute chart. if support breaks at 121.70 ish then the target is 117.50
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this is the current channel as I see it
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could see a scenario playing out, with one of those falling wedge fake breaks down, where my original idea could indeed come to fruition. not that it will, but it's not out of the question
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for right now I have to also consider the possibility of this shorter term bullish scenario, what looks like maybe an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, with an interesting target of 133 ish, which would take it into the resistance area, and to potentially meet up with the 200 EMA. (red arrow). Interestingly, along the neckline of the inverse H&S, there is the 50 EMA, which has been the capper as of late. would also be a breakout of the current downward wedge as I see it. (green arrow) worth noting and watching.
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finally a break of this channel.. to the down side.. let's watch!
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quick update to get the trend lines laid out. we can see that the pink line which formed a triangle was broken, and then the last two weeks were spent confirming that line as resistance. now that price rejected from the pink line, we catch support on the yellow trend line. probably (in my opinion) - the next move down will be down to the falling wedge line on the daily (blue) and the next one down would be the green line, which is the floor, if my idea is correct, which, remains to be seen.
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price action has tested the green line. which based on my idea should be the bouncing point
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"Cboe XBT Bitcoin Futures Trading Expiration date is 13 June, 2018.".. info of interestComment
currently watching an inverse head and shoulders formation - testing the neckline -with an interesting target right around 100.00 if it were to break out and confirm
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tradingview.com/x/nfKxcNew/last night I was considering the possibility that my idea was incorrect, because there was a daily candle closing below what I was considering the bottom of the falling wedge on the dily log chart. this happened to me early on in this idea, where I thought a line had been broken, and I assumed my idea was over... until I tried moving the trend line a little, and then it all fit again, so I did that as well this time, and with just a tiny wiggle was able to make it all fit again, into a falling wedge on the daily log chart.. so, will continue to moniterComment
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current upward trend channel as I see it..
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as we can see we had a bounce on the blue line, down to touch the green line, and then two more tests of the blue line. as indicated by the arrows. this is the one hour chart, I will post a daily chart showing the big picture next.
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daily chart with the big picture. support/resistances in yellow and important trend lines are blue for the downward wedge channel, green for what I have been calling "the buy line", which is a very long term resistance/support trend line. and has been the line to buy on for years now apparently. and then orange and pink for other long term major trend lines that have proven supportive and resistant. scroll up for a closer view of recent price action
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I have also just found this new red support line, connected by wicks. there is a lot of big time critical support coming together here, underneath current price action. this is a great place to be forming a bottom. if these huge supports break then that would be super duper bearish . if they hold, it could be super duper bullish from a TA stand point imho
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scroll up for 3 recent chart updatesComment
now I'm seeing price being squeezed into a triangle here, with an inverse H&S taking shape, with breakout and confirmation of a 4hr candle closing above 97.5/98 ish. I've had a couple of formations break out over the last few weeks and come up short of their targets.. on each of those occasions I was able to take note of a weaker volume at breakout. so be sure to be watching for strong volume at breakout to be confident that the target may be hit. this inverse H&S has a target around 110, but there is pretty hefty resistance around 106/107/108 ish as well. I accidentally posted this first in the comments and it wouldn't let me copy and paste. hopefully it transcribed okay
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