Bulls Waking Up Soon
Updated
LTCUSDT has seen a very healthy correction thus far (along with all other top crypto). Lets see if this is the bottom or not. I've since changed my position from a 5-3-5 zig zag correction to a 3-3-5 regular flat. A few weeks ago I missed the top estimate, but nailed the severity of the correction (I think). This seems to confirm to me that LTCUSDT and LTCUSD has seen a complete overall cycle wave 1. This correction end point will mark the end of wave 2.
First indication: The current price is jostling directly on the overall cycle .5 re-trace. Very popular reversal for wave 2.
Second indication: It is riding its lifetime uptrend. While I expect a breach of this uptrend before beginning wave 3 to create a new uptrend, I still think this is a very good indication for at least an end to correction wave A as it presents a psychological border.
Third indication: 1HR RSI shows large bullish divergence while 4HR RSI shows oversold breach.
Fourth indication: Take a look at the -/+ volume in this triangle forming as compared to the last week. Traders are getting restless.
I see three possibilities from this point:
1) Optimistic in Green - Begin overall cycle impulse wave 3 to 120s.
2) Realistic in blue - Begin correction wave B of overall cycle wave 2 to 70-85 region before beginning wave C down. I see this as the most likely due to the short time this correction has been running if it is truly a correction to overall cycle impulse wave 1.
3) Pessimistic in red - Charlie Lee is the devil and wants to watch the world burn with extensions of current down.
Stop set to 40.5 in the event of scenario 3.
Keep an eye on BTC as it's the one that seems to drive the crypto world.
Let me know if you agree or not. I welcome your constructive criticism.
First indication: The current price is jostling directly on the overall cycle .5 re-trace. Very popular reversal for wave 2.
Second indication: It is riding its lifetime uptrend. While I expect a breach of this uptrend before beginning wave 3 to create a new uptrend, I still think this is a very good indication for at least an end to correction wave A as it presents a psychological border.
Third indication: 1HR RSI shows large bullish divergence while 4HR RSI shows oversold breach.
Fourth indication: Take a look at the -/+ volume in this triangle forming as compared to the last week. Traders are getting restless.
I see three possibilities from this point:
1) Optimistic in Green - Begin overall cycle impulse wave 3 to 120s.
2) Realistic in blue - Begin correction wave B of overall cycle wave 2 to 70-85 region before beginning wave C down. I see this as the most likely due to the short time this correction has been running if it is truly a correction to overall cycle impulse wave 1.
3) Pessimistic in red - Charlie Lee is the devil and wants to watch the world burn with extensions of current down.
Stop set to 40.5 in the event of scenario 3.
Keep an eye on BTC as it's the one that seems to drive the crypto world.
Let me know if you agree or not. I welcome your constructive criticism.
Comment
Dip after bearish consolidation yesterday hit harder than I thought it would. Price now sits just below .618 FIB re-trace of overall wave 1. 1HR shows a very pretty hammer followed by a bull candle. RSI on the 4HR has dipped further into oversold region.While it seems bullish at the moment, don't allow yourself to get trapped and set stops. I always use stops, I think it's extremely unwise not to. Might be obvious advice, but I'd rather lose 5% than 50%.
Stop set at 35.
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Updated estimated B region fib levels to account for last extension down of A. Still on track in my opinion. Wave B is typically made up of WXY with Y having either triangle or 5 wave impulse. Estimated C region not updated yet, will wait for B to terminate.
Comment
Bullish divergence forming, visible up to 3 hr candles. Watching for reversals/trend breaks in this price channel.
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Orange lines depict trend channel of wave "C" down for larger wave 2 down. If this breaks, good chance of wave 2 termination and wave 3 trend reversal starting.
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Price has been blowing through a number of minor downtrends. It is now approaching two familiar failure points. RSI shows oversold up to the 2HR, about 65 on the 4HR. I expect to see a bullish flag consolidation form on the same line as last week (52ish) while minor profit taking happens and bulls take a breather. Watch for breakout as the price approaches the junction (decision point). Lots of resistance here, will be paying attention to this region.
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Larger view update. Still on track with my first two possibilities. I am slowly leaning away from possibility number 2 though and starting to believe this may be wave 3 of a new larger cycle uptrend (possibility 1). I am still bullish until my estimated (((B))) region is hit.
**Correction to my last update: I meant to say "RSI shows overbought up to..."** My mistake.
Comment
To me, current minor downtrend (wave 4) appears to be ending. Looks like it was faster than I thought it would be. I counted 5 waves in wave 4's "C" with a bullish divergence on RSI visible on 15 minute candles (30 min shown here). It also seems to haver terminated right on an old friendly support. I'm watching for reversal patterns for re-entry here.
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