LUNA back in bullish trading channel
Updated
Here we look at a possible 3 week trading range for LUNA.
Trading the short term can be very tricky because we have Kujira’s buyback function for liq bLUNA always ready, major cascadations are usually due to leveraged borrowers being wiped on Anchor protocol, and UST minting causing reduction of LUNA supply. In the long term, my bias for LUNA is always bullish.
Currently, LUNA has just broken out of an Ascending Triangle price pattern (to find out more on this pattern you can use the following link learn.bybit.com/trading/what-are-triangle-patterns-formations-for-crypto-trading/ and went on to retest it. It then got rejected from the supply zone and is trading at the price of 55.8 at the time of writing.
Trading plan - 3 scenarios
Very bullish - 25%
You would want to buy at current prices in hopes of a cup and handle forming, which would send the price between 61-66, coinciding with the upper resistance of the old trading channel, as well as a old accumulation level. Any rejection from 61, you would be looking to catch LUNA near the old resistance line (~$53.8) which presents LUNA at a 10-15% discount. If LUNA breaks through to 67, you may choose to reaccumulate some at the old supply zone at 58-60 for a higher move upwards at the supply zone of 78-83. Why I see this as a possible scenario is the fact that we have been having decreasing volume over time, and decreased selling volume. This means any spike in volume could send LUNA surging upwards towards overhead targets (expecting this from major announcements in Terra ecosystem MARS and {redacted}). TLDR: overhead targets from current price are $61, 66, 78, then near ATHs at 98-102, buy in at old support lines or on retest of old supply zones
Conservative bullish - 50%
We have very nervous markets which react quickly to BTC and possibly NASDAQ/SPX futures. Am expecting a downwards move towards 49.74 where many bids (round number 50) would be filled, then expecting a bounce between supply zone and bottom of the old trading channel which may become active in supporting prices again. Once the price breaks through the old supply zone, we can retest the upper resistance of the trading channel it is in (~$67) as well as the old supply zone to see if it holds as support now. TLDR: Buy any failed retest of support of old trading channel (~$49-52) with a target of $61, 67, then 78
Bearish - 25%
Still a scenario which might be played out as retail interest is not fully manifested yet or institutions which did their DD on SOLUNAVAX are not yet able to fully fill their order books. LUNA could be shorted downwards to 50, have a relief rally towards old R/S line $53.8, before it gets rejected again. We can then rely on the bearish trendline to short the touches. Lower targets are the recent support of $44 and then $38 upon lost of psychological support at $40
Hope this helps everyone in their trading thesis for LUNA. Hopefully just like other CEXes, bybit.com/en-US/ will have UST pairs soon for those who prefer trading with UST
Trading the short term can be very tricky because we have Kujira’s buyback function for liq bLUNA always ready, major cascadations are usually due to leveraged borrowers being wiped on Anchor protocol, and UST minting causing reduction of LUNA supply. In the long term, my bias for LUNA is always bullish.
Currently, LUNA has just broken out of an Ascending Triangle price pattern (to find out more on this pattern you can use the following link learn.bybit.com/trading/what-are-triangle-patterns-formations-for-crypto-trading/ and went on to retest it. It then got rejected from the supply zone and is trading at the price of 55.8 at the time of writing.
Trading plan - 3 scenarios
Very bullish - 25%
You would want to buy at current prices in hopes of a cup and handle forming, which would send the price between 61-66, coinciding with the upper resistance of the old trading channel, as well as a old accumulation level. Any rejection from 61, you would be looking to catch LUNA near the old resistance line (~$53.8) which presents LUNA at a 10-15% discount. If LUNA breaks through to 67, you may choose to reaccumulate some at the old supply zone at 58-60 for a higher move upwards at the supply zone of 78-83. Why I see this as a possible scenario is the fact that we have been having decreasing volume over time, and decreased selling volume. This means any spike in volume could send LUNA surging upwards towards overhead targets (expecting this from major announcements in Terra ecosystem MARS and {redacted}). TLDR: overhead targets from current price are $61, 66, 78, then near ATHs at 98-102, buy in at old support lines or on retest of old supply zones
Conservative bullish - 50%
We have very nervous markets which react quickly to BTC and possibly NASDAQ/SPX futures. Am expecting a downwards move towards 49.74 where many bids (round number 50) would be filled, then expecting a bounce between supply zone and bottom of the old trading channel which may become active in supporting prices again. Once the price breaks through the old supply zone, we can retest the upper resistance of the trading channel it is in (~$67) as well as the old supply zone to see if it holds as support now. TLDR: Buy any failed retest of support of old trading channel (~$49-52) with a target of $61, 67, then 78
Bearish - 25%
Still a scenario which might be played out as retail interest is not fully manifested yet or institutions which did their DD on SOLUNAVAX are not yet able to fully fill their order books. LUNA could be shorted downwards to 50, have a relief rally towards old R/S line $53.8, before it gets rejected again. We can then rely on the bearish trendline to short the touches. Lower targets are the recent support of $44 and then $38 upon lost of psychological support at $40
Hope this helps everyone in their trading thesis for LUNA. Hopefully just like other CEXes, bybit.com/en-US/ will have UST pairs soon for those who prefer trading with UST
Trade active
We got a bounce@@@@Comment
choppy and waiting, hopefully a retrace to 52-53 for the final load upTrade closed: target reached
Thanks for playing, rejecting off resistance off the very bullish case, do secure more profits here if you are a trader
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