Real M2 Money StockEducation
No more Steroids ..!
Many of you may hear this many times in the past 2 years:
The stock market is on steroids..!
What does it mean?
To answer this question you must know the definition of Money Supply and How FED play with this powerful tool!
Monetary policy:
refers to the strategies employed by a nation’s central bank with regard to the amount of money circulating in the economy, and what that money is worth. While the ultimate objective of monetary policy is to achieve long-term economic growth, central banks may have different stated goals toward this end. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy goals are to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. (Investopedia)
When the economy overheats central banks raise interest rates and take other contractionary measures to slow things down - this can discourage investment and depress asset prices.
During a recession, on the other hand, the central bank lowers rates and adds money and liquidity to the economy - stimulating investment and consumption, and having a generally positive impact on asset prices. (Investopedia)
Restrictive Monetary Policy(QT)
Raising rates makes borrowing more expensive, put a damper on rapid growth to keep it in check.
Assets perform in this type of environment:
- Equities, Bonds, Real Estate, and Commodities: Underperform
- Cash tends to do well
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/052813/how-monetary-policy-affects-your-investments.asp#:~:text=The%20direct%20impact%20is%20through,real%20estate%2C%20commodities%20and%20currencies.
What Is M2?
M2 is a calculation of the money supply that includes all elements of M1 as well as "near money." M1 includes cash and checking deposits, while near money refers to savings deposits, money market securities, and other time deposits (in amounts less than $100,000). These assets are less liquid than M1 and not as suitable as exchange mediums, but they can be quickly converted into cash or checking deposits.
M2 is closely watched as an indicator of money supply and future inflation, and as a target of central bank monetary policy.
(Investopedia)
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/m2.asp#:~:text=M2%20is%20a%20measure%20of,includes%20cash%20and%20checking%20deposits.
Federal Reserve:
M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of other checkable deposits (or OCDs, which comprise negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions) and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts). Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and other liquid deposits, each seasonally adjusted separately.
M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions, and (2) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing small-denomination time deposits and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding the result to seasonally adjusted M1.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/default.htm
Best,
Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
The stock market is on steroids..!
What does it mean?
To answer this question you must know the definition of Money Supply and How FED play with this powerful tool!
Monetary policy:
refers to the strategies employed by a nation’s central bank with regard to the amount of money circulating in the economy, and what that money is worth. While the ultimate objective of monetary policy is to achieve long-term economic growth, central banks may have different stated goals toward this end. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy goals are to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. (Investopedia)
When the economy overheats central banks raise interest rates and take other contractionary measures to slow things down - this can discourage investment and depress asset prices.
During a recession, on the other hand, the central bank lowers rates and adds money and liquidity to the economy - stimulating investment and consumption, and having a generally positive impact on asset prices. (Investopedia)
Restrictive Monetary Policy(QT)
Raising rates makes borrowing more expensive, put a damper on rapid growth to keep it in check.
Assets perform in this type of environment:
- Equities, Bonds, Real Estate, and Commodities: Underperform
- Cash tends to do well
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/052813/how-monetary-policy-affects-your-investments.asp#:~:text=The%20direct%20impact%20is%20through,real%20estate%2C%20commodities%20and%20currencies.
What Is M2?
M2 is a calculation of the money supply that includes all elements of M1 as well as "near money." M1 includes cash and checking deposits, while near money refers to savings deposits, money market securities, and other time deposits (in amounts less than $100,000). These assets are less liquid than M1 and not as suitable as exchange mediums, but they can be quickly converted into cash or checking deposits.
M2 is closely watched as an indicator of money supply and future inflation, and as a target of central bank monetary policy.
(Investopedia)
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/m2.asp#:~:text=M2%20is%20a%20measure%20of,includes%20cash%20and%20checking%20deposits.
Federal Reserve:
M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of other checkable deposits (or OCDs, which comprise negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions) and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts). Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and other liquid deposits, each seasonally adjusted separately.
M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions, and (2) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing small-denomination time deposits and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding the result to seasonally adjusted M1.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/default.htm
Best,
Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
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