Where bitcoin goes MARA follows - Current Macro developments
Updated
Hi guys! As usually i keep my eye open for macro changes or signals that may lead to major moves. Of which Marathon (MARA) has been on my radar.
This analysis is done on the 1 week timeframe.
We are currently attempting to get Above our Major level/ area around $18-20.
This area also coincides with the 21 EMA.
Which we are also ABOVE as we speak.
However, remember it has not yet confirmed that we managed to get Support from 21 EMA.
Also note that we recently tested Support on 50 SMA and have maintained it 6 weeks in a row. This fact makes me think, we will continue UP -> At the very least to the Upper range of the consolidation orange rectangle at $28.00
We have not yet printed a death cross which is a good sign indicating probabilities pointing towards continuation of Uptrend.
Pay attention to next weeks candle close for more clues.
Ive also highlighted our current price action to be part of a Consolidation range, from $15.00 to $28.00
I think it makes sense for us to be consolidating as we are making our way out of the bottom of the market for MARA. (around the 3.50 area) Since then we've already climbed roughly 1000% to our top around $34.
21 EMA and 50 SMA flattening out also supports the Consolidation occuring.
Consolidation is basically when an asset tries to digest rallies, trying to catch its breath.
And now we have to assess whether theres further momentum left to continue our Bull market or make our way back down.
If Bull market continues, we can make our way back to this Major Resistance lvl labeled. We have touched this line 3 times in history previously and it marks Blow off tops of Bull markets for MARA.
If we get rejected from this Major level, we can make our way back to the sloping Support trendline labeled below.
So to find a sense of whether or not MARA will continue or come down to test the lows, we look to 2 indicators that i love using to assess "momentum".
Notice the STOCH RSI.
Everytime we come down to the 20 lvl, we stay Below for extended periods ranging from 57 days to as much as 126 days.
When we cross Bullish and move UP Above 20 lvl, we tend to have Rallies UP.
1 pattern though, with STOCH is its relationship with Moving Averages 21 EMA and 50 SMA.
When Purple (21 EMA) crosses Below Green (50 SMA) Moving Average and there is a STOCH Bull cross, sometimes it doesn't impact big rallies.
BUT When Purple is on top of the Green Moving Average and STOCH crosses BUllish Above 20 lvl. This is a pattern seen in relation to big rallies UP
So if we can get a STOCH Bullish CROSS Above 20 level, while our 21 EMA is Above our 50 SMA, we can expect to see a continuation rally. Watch also for a break Up and confirmation out of the consolidation zone.
The MACD is currently ABOVE the 0 level, with waning or decreasing Bearish sentiment. This is seen from the print of the lighter red bar of the histogram. The Blue/Orange lines are also attempting to Curve Up and try to Cross Bullish.
If we continue to print smaller lighter Red bars, and then see a Green bar print, it is likely momentum has turned Bullish.
Bullish Crosses ABOVE 0 level, tend to rally Upwards.
A MACD and STOCH CROSS together would be even better sign of uptrend to be PROBABLE.
ANd if we Breakout of the consolidation rectangle we are currently in -> its likely we test "Major Resistance" at around $60.
Keep observing and paying attention.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
Stay tuned for more updates on MARA in the near future.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
This analysis is done on the 1 week timeframe.
We are currently attempting to get Above our Major level/ area around $18-20.
This area also coincides with the 21 EMA.
Which we are also ABOVE as we speak.
However, remember it has not yet confirmed that we managed to get Support from 21 EMA.
Also note that we recently tested Support on 50 SMA and have maintained it 6 weeks in a row. This fact makes me think, we will continue UP -> At the very least to the Upper range of the consolidation orange rectangle at $28.00
We have not yet printed a death cross which is a good sign indicating probabilities pointing towards continuation of Uptrend.
Pay attention to next weeks candle close for more clues.
Ive also highlighted our current price action to be part of a Consolidation range, from $15.00 to $28.00
I think it makes sense for us to be consolidating as we are making our way out of the bottom of the market for MARA. (around the 3.50 area) Since then we've already climbed roughly 1000% to our top around $34.
21 EMA and 50 SMA flattening out also supports the Consolidation occuring.
Consolidation is basically when an asset tries to digest rallies, trying to catch its breath.
And now we have to assess whether theres further momentum left to continue our Bull market or make our way back down.
If Bull market continues, we can make our way back to this Major Resistance lvl labeled. We have touched this line 3 times in history previously and it marks Blow off tops of Bull markets for MARA.
If we get rejected from this Major level, we can make our way back to the sloping Support trendline labeled below.
So to find a sense of whether or not MARA will continue or come down to test the lows, we look to 2 indicators that i love using to assess "momentum".
Notice the STOCH RSI.
Everytime we come down to the 20 lvl, we stay Below for extended periods ranging from 57 days to as much as 126 days.
When we cross Bullish and move UP Above 20 lvl, we tend to have Rallies UP.
1 pattern though, with STOCH is its relationship with Moving Averages 21 EMA and 50 SMA.
When Purple (21 EMA) crosses Below Green (50 SMA) Moving Average and there is a STOCH Bull cross, sometimes it doesn't impact big rallies.
BUT When Purple is on top of the Green Moving Average and STOCH crosses BUllish Above 20 lvl. This is a pattern seen in relation to big rallies UP
So if we can get a STOCH Bullish CROSS Above 20 level, while our 21 EMA is Above our 50 SMA, we can expect to see a continuation rally. Watch also for a break Up and confirmation out of the consolidation zone.
The MACD is currently ABOVE the 0 level, with waning or decreasing Bearish sentiment. This is seen from the print of the lighter red bar of the histogram. The Blue/Orange lines are also attempting to Curve Up and try to Cross Bullish.
If we continue to print smaller lighter Red bars, and then see a Green bar print, it is likely momentum has turned Bullish.
Bullish Crosses ABOVE 0 level, tend to rally Upwards.
A MACD and STOCH CROSS together would be even better sign of uptrend to be PROBABLE.
ANd if we Breakout of the consolidation rectangle we are currently in -> its likely we test "Major Resistance" at around $60.
Keep observing and paying attention.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
Stay tuned for more updates on MARA in the near future.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
Note
With Bitcoin ABOVE 70000.00. Stocks related to BTC have been moving.
MARA so far has had a splendid week.
But the week is not yet over.
However,
GOLDEN CROSS seen of the 21 EMA (Purple) and 50 SMA (Green).
Supports the Bullish case.
Everytime we've crossed previously, we have had rallies.
Good place to take positions and to profit yourself BELOW the cross with a stop loss.
CLoser you are to the Moving averages better the position. There maybe a chance of price to re-test the Moving Averages. But there may not be.
Look for support of the bullish case from other indicators and concepts before firmly taking positions. Keep your eyes peeled for more updates and in support of the trend.
Note
QUick update on Marathon.
As you know Bitcoin halvening has caused an increase in the difficulty in producing BTC. So production rate will decrease.
However note: its the BTC holding and the subsequent price of BTC that will reflect the price of MARA moving forward. Especially if we are in our last leg of the BUll run. (Which i believe we are in crypto)
Anyway Technicals are more or less the same.
We are maintaining SUPPORT ABOVE the Major level highlighted.
We must continue to stay above.
On top of that, we need to breakout of this Consolidation range that has formed from roughly $15.00 to $28.00.
It is ideal to take this trade when there is a breakout ABOVE 28.00 from Consolidation range.
In my opinion however, staying Above the Major lvl is making me consider taking positions NOW. I will then add more or short depending on the movement of price in regards to CONSOLIDATION range.
STOCH RSI has also crossed BULLISH above the 20 lvl. This is a sign that Bullish momentum is coming in.
Continue to closely monitor MARA and other crypto related things.
Note
(2 week timeframe giving a macro view of things)
Wanted to bring this update to MARA. In my opinion i think we are now starting to pick up on bullishness. I will continue on my current opinion on the direction of where MARA will go after a short recap of the previous move/rejection at 27.80ish.
The previous move i mentioned above was a failed attempt to break out of the consolidation range. We reached about 27.80 and got rejected. Indicators also showed fakeout signal with Stoch RSI crossing bearish and MACD crossing bearish bearish. RSI also ended up printing a Lower low.
This resulted in MARA moving down to test the 50 SMA and the Support trend line (which began when MARA created a double bottom pattern).
We have started to bounce from here, in relation to BTC also moving towards Major resistance at 72k.
We are right around a major Resistance level the $18.88 area. If you look left we have had trouble staying above this level. But key is to break above and maintain Support on this.
We are also moving Above both 50SMA and 21 EMA, which we havent been Above for 2 months.
There is ton of Resistance which is keeping me cautious, BUT i believe BTC is going to continue its move to test Resistance at 72k. But key is breaking above 72k. For MARA to perform well, BTC has to continue up, if it doesnt, MARA probably tops at the upper edge of consolidation range but doesnt break through.
Remember also anything inside of the Consolidation range, doesnt matter. We need to get ABOVE. I believe MARA can do it if BTC starts printing new All Time HIghs. Though i like the safety of trading patterns after confirmation of a breakout. I actually have bought MARA while it was testing 50SMA and trendline. I will add larger positions if Consolidation breakout is a green flag. I will exit if there is a break/ confirmation Below 50SMA and Support trendline.
Alot of signals are also showing indication of a switch to BUllishness.
2 week Stoch RSI has a BUllish cross and 2 week candle is about to close today. So im giving benefit of doubt on this indicator confirming Momentum to pick up.
HOwever id like to see Bullish cross in MACD and RSI to break ABOVE the resistance trendline highlighted by green circle.
These 3 indicators showing confluence might actually make me buy another small position.
This will be enough to breakout of consolidation in my opinion.
FOr this stock, breaking out of Consolidation range is key for us to reach the MAJOR Resistance Above, around 53$. I believe this to be the sell target for this BUll market and the top. It will coincide with BTC hitting a new high and topping as well.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.