MARA: Second Chance

Updated

My previous trade idea on MARA followed the accumulation of the lows below $10 when this stock was totally undervalued. I was buying to sell into the ETF news, which lined up perfectly with my BTC prediction approaching 48-50k. That trade resulted in a profit of 300% and our next opportunity is likely approaching as the Bitcoin Halving will occur in April.

Ive since sold my MARA position but I will start accumulating this stock again as price retraces.

There will be 2 BASIC indicators that I will use to predict where the bottom of this retracement will be.

1) The traditional Fibonacci retracement from the bottom of the range, to the top of the move. We will be using the Golden Pocket CC .618 as a base case and look for confluence at that level. To my expectation, this range lines up with a GAP that MARA failed to close, before rallying over 100%. My previous idea was based on the fact that GAPS must be filled once a direction is chosen. This will be no different.

2) The overall strength of the Market, in particular Bitcoin. I will be looking for a retracement on BTC to at least the 30k-32k level, which was the previous massive range resistance, and should now be treated as support. If we break this level, we will very likely be looking at lower prices and this trade will be invalidated / look for lower prices.

I do believe that we will see a several week accumulation period in the spring, which may last in to the summer until BTC potentially begins its post halving rally in the fall / winter of 2024.

It will be important to watch the RSI on the daily time frame. If we break into new lower ranges, but the RSI fails to generate new lows, you can use this as a sign that the bottom is near.

My target will be between $12-$13.

If we do see further downside towards the previous range point of control at approx $9-$10, this would be a load the boat situation to average in.

Lets Go MARA!

Good Luck!

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One small update after pulling the fixed range tool from the 2 highs, we have a POC at $10. We are currently breaking the value area high (top orange line) and I would suggest there is a higher probabilty we likely bounce off the POC (blue line).

Therefore I would say, Ideal buy zone will be between $10-$13.

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Im adjusting my fixed range profile because I recently noticed that it was just 2 candles off, when identifying the Value areas for the previous range.

We are currently finding a bounce at this level, approx 15-$16 range I have marked on my charts, which is confluence for the previous range Value Area High.

I would not be surprised if we see a bounce here. Some more data on the daily time frame can indicate if the reversal is confirmed.

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You can see a nice support candle right at the Value Area on the daily.

Trade active

Nice support, lets pump it up. Ill take a temporary trade here. Looking for BTC to move to 44k first, then , and if we blast past then we could see 50k which would be the top of the range CC FIB .618.

Potential for MARA to revist the golden pocket at $24 too. However, if we do dump lower, I would treat it as buying the dip opportunities.

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BTC Breaking down at the moment. Looking for 37k support zone. MARA is starting to behave in a familiar way, although bitcoin is absolutely dumping, MARA does not seem too phased at the moment.

Will continue building my position again as price comes down.

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Took the $15.50 Value area to $17 this morning for quick flip. Expecting a bit lower now unless we break below the Value area then we might go to fill the GAP below us around $14.

Lets see

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Nice little pullback before this pump from the VAH. MARA clearly finding support.

This bitcoin move threw me off a bit as we broke below 40k.

However, it seems like BTC has now reclaimed 40k. And I cant help but the be a bit more bullish perhaps up to 43-44k as originally planned.

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I also want to keep in mind the rotation for the next rally on the daily time frame. Ideally we want the momentum and RSI to show us an extreme oversold region, which we still have some downside room. I would be careful holding this one into next week, perhaps taking some profits if we do drop to lower your cost basis would be a good plan.

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And keep in mind we do have resistance above us. We are seeing a slight rejection off the 0.286 fib.

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Getting a rejection from our previous supply zone, flipped to resistance between $19-$20. Looking move lower continuation.

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Just an overall market update. I want you guys to understand that MARA is not immune to the overall market moves. Historically, the last half of February is generally bearish. And risk stocks may see a bigger quick flush (although it might not be there for long).

There a few signs to me that point for potentially lower prices:

1) March Rate cuts by the FED have been removed and the market will need to adjust for future cuts.

2) The all time high on the SPY is approaching, there will likely be profit taking and rebalancing.

3) Bitcoin Halving approaching, where miners historically bleed.

4) We are changing holding a bearish market structure, getting a rejection and moving down into a GAP area. Remember my overall thesis, if you see a GAP, it is likely that it must be filled before the market can pick the direction it wants to move in.

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Mind the Gap

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CC at $24/$25 is a great take profit if you rode this one from the gap.

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Be aware of the CC Fib at this exact level, and potential Gap at $27 that could be filled. Be very careful at these levels.

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Gap Filled

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Cant say we didn't see this coming

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Looking at the price action the last few days has been insane. I do think MARA can either go one of 2 ways at this point. Either we see weakness in markets and BTC, we can clearly see a double top. Some divergences forming too.

We are also gapping up several days in a row, some might refer to this as exhaustion gaps.

If we however break a close a daily candle above $32/$33 this thing may squeeze up to the $38/$40 pivot range.

At the moment the nasdaq does seem quite weak, same with overall markets. Unless we see some strong demand pushing in the next few days, we may just see a sharp reveral as we have in the past.

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When I look at this on the 4H i cant help but to see a rejection reaction at the moment.

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I just wanted to share another potential idea for a long trade here. As of tonight, Feb 20 it seems like the ES and NQ markets may have potentially be finding some support and major weekly levels. It may be possible for us to see a technical bounce.

If we find support at the first gap level, and see a strong reaction there could be potential for a technical short squeeze here.

Filing the most recent GAP in confluence with the 100 MA might be a support zone.

There are 3 possible scenarios I am going to look for, and they are illustrated in my attachments below.

Firstly, if Mara can close hourly candles above $32 range, we might seem strong buy pressure as we try to flip resistance.

Secondly, we are in a downtrend after a failed swing at $30 where we see a sharp rejection. Today, we have closed below my daily level at approx. $25, this level will be relatively important. If the price gets rejected at that price point, It would make sense to expect $22.50-$21.50. Finding support here, combined with good earnings may give this stock potential to run.

However, If we continue breaking down don't panic, as these would be my lower levels for a long term swing over a multiple month time frame. These levels I would consider averaging in at $17.55 and $14. If we drop lower, I would be treating it a buy opportunity that likely wont last for too long.

If we do see this massive pump It will simply be a technical short squeeze since Marathon earnings are at the end of the month on Feb 28th, which may be promising since Bitcoin was pumping towards the end of the year, even up until now.

That being said it might be likely to drop very quickly as stop-losses get triggered on the way down. So please be careful and try not to chase it.

Moreover, There is potential we are seeing a pullback in BTC as we are still in a technical uptrend unless we break and hold below 49k. I will link another chart below showcasing the BTC price breaking a weekly candle above the CC golden pocket 0.618. If we expect a correction, it would make sense at this resistance zone now, we would need this sign of rejection within the next 4 days when the next weekly candle will open. The low to hold above and bounce is the CC low at $48,400.

My third and last variant is the break below the current trend line as well as the gap below at $13/14 which would be an amazing long term entry.

Post your comments if you have any other trade ideas that may happen in the coming days.

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Hit the daily to the exact level. Will be watching this $25 range.

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As I outlined in the previous update, we held above the CC at
52K on the Bitcoin price. This was the Fibonacci retracement golden pocket from the top of the bull market to the low of the bear market.

We have since had a massive rally to 57k. Depending on what happens tomorrow, we may actually see a big move.

We absolutely blasted through $25, and do not even backtest it. If Bitcoin can hold its current price point, we may quite literally see a MARA squeeze. NY open will be important to watch as price action will be a clear tell sign.

Approx 1/3 of MARA stock is short positioned and the main level to hold will still remain as $32.

If we break above $32 tomorrow, I can honestly see MARA potentially squeeze to $38-$40, especially with good earnings.

I don't know how much higher BTC can go at this point as it too has surpassed my expectations, but what I do know is that many short positions might need to be covered.

Lets see how this plays out.

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Im still in a light position since Jan 22, I just added some more as Bitcoin is absolutely pumping, and it makes sense for BTC to take the high if we can close above 62k. i just don't see any further resistance.

We may have some euphoria in the market.

If MARA starts breaking down below $28/$29 I would be out.

I personally believe there is potential for this to squeeze, and so I will play this responsibly.

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I will be honest this area is providing some huge resistance. It will be a real battle zone.

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The only thing holding MARA up right now is really just earnings potential.

BTC Has officially hit the Monthly level at $61,400 and getting some rejection.
If BTC starts freefalling MARA could be in a lot of trouble.

Let's see how today plays out.

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Squeeze it!!

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Users on Coinbase reporting accounts a $0. Coinbase statement released.

"Our team is investigating this issue and will provide an update shortly. Your assets are safe."

coindesk.com/business/2024/02/28/coinbase-account-balances-shows-0-for-users-post-bitcoin-60k-breakout/

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Bitcoin off the VWAP

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This is nuts , what a time to be alive.

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Welp! The sell the news event played out. As a trader its just part of the game and
I have no problem with taking a small loss on the trade. As I mentioned before you really need to have your positions and risk tight when trading at these price levels.

That being said, I am going to take another small trade here simply because we are holding and finding support at the daily level here. Keep in mind, if you are not willing to lose 20-30% on a trade like this then don't take it, just wait for the next big move.

I already have profits secured, so for me to take a small position of 10% with a 3% risk tolerance is okay.

That being said...

I don't think BTC is done moving just yet. We are clearly holding value above the previous range value area high. We also don't have any resistance above us outside of 65k. I feel like the probability is we take a new ATH on Bitcoin first before a massive 40%-50% drop.

As some of you may know from my other ideas, I am overall bearish on the market at the moment. So whatever moves we get, please take your profits as we may just see a very sharp move to the downside after this last push.

For those curious about my buy in targets, I will be scaling back into this trade, but also watching the BTC price as I average in. I will post more updates if we do see a big correction.

Keep in mind , the halving is in April. So I do believe we have a unique time frame over the next 2 months to be patient and build a strong position that will pay you for the rest of the year moving forward. Don't trade away your portfolio and miss the best buying chance we have.

And lastly, I am thrilled to see all the comments on the idea with different perspectives on the market today. There are definitely some nice ideas down there too.

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Here is a long trade idea. Losing the daily is going to be your sign of weakness which would then be a no trade zone for me, and wait for the lower accumulation prices.

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Daily clearly showing us some support. Losing $25 for me and Im out (daily close). Today is just such a weird day, BTC near ATH and MARA down. Something seems fishy.

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Out of this trade and will not be touching this stock anymore until accumulation zones.

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Loss of the $25 daily = huge flush. Lets be patient now and watch the gaps start to fill, and prepare for our accumulation.

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Technicals.... FYI, the reason why MARA was not seeing all time high is because of the share dilution. I hate to say it, but MARA has officially dumped on us.

After seeing this, I may be open to moving more of my funds into other miners / BTC related stocks. Who knows it could always happen again. I may be looking to CLSK cleanspark as a potentially better play.

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MARA currently sitting around $18. My lower targets don't seem too unreasonable now do they?

Dont forget, BTC is at all time highs. What would happen if BTC had a major correction?

Don't get too excited to load up yet, as price retraces you can start dollar cost averaging in. You guys need to zoom OUT and see the bigger picture and overall trend.

Where would you risk reward be most profitable?

Keep in mind, we are now getting acceptance into the Value Area High of the previous range. What does this mean?

Simply put ,we failed to show strength above this range by holding above $20. Generally, it would make sense to assume the price can potentially retest the value area low at $7.

Now I personally don/t think we will get that low per say. But if we go back to our overall long term trend, you can see that the point of control at $10 lines up perfectly with the long term trend marked in the box.

This should be your ideal target if you want to load up for maximum potential during the bull run.

Good luck!

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Since breaking down below $25, we have seen a sharp drop on MARA and the overall market in general. There is a lot of bearish news recently.

Nonetheless, My alerts are starting to trigger as we move back into my accumulation zone between $12-$13

Halving event by the end of the week, let's see what happens moving forward.

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Small update as some are asking me my thoughts. Ive nibbled on a small piece of MARA as we had been dropping to $14, but did not get the chance to disperse majority of the capital as the price was front run by $1 - $2.

Now, I will be paying attention to the $20 zone. We may potentially see a rejection here to retest the lows. If so, this would be the entry we are waiting for.

If price does happen to drop back into the support zones, I will deploy the majority of capital as planned.

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Nice rejection at the $20 with a big dump on BTC.

Starting to average in slowly here if we move lower. Only planning to deploy 20% of the planned capital here.

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Mara going into earnings may 9th. We are at such a pivotal zone....

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nice

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I am looking at this as a make it or potential break it. We are at the exact top of resistance zone and down sloping trend line.

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My current take here will be pay close attention to the earnings report. The halving is a an event that will drastically change the nature of the business of bitcoin mining by reducing the reward by 50%.

This may be a potential sell the news rally, unless we get amazing news and guidance on earnings.

Either way I will be prepared. Any major moves to the downside may still give us an opportunity to enter at amazing prices as originally hoped for.

I don't expect Mara to make any major moves until then.

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Getting pinned here

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$20 clear resistance at the moment

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Bleeding a lil bit more

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Breaking this trend line will likely continue the bleed. No trades here as I am still waiting for lower prices.

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Lower prices came as we hit a low of $16.80. Added some MARA to my stack as we wicked back into the trend. We have some potential to break out tomorrow with CPI.

As a reminder to new followers, this trade is long term swing trade, not a short term pump. I am stacking MARA and other miners for the coming bull market on BTC.

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Range Point of Control Providing resistance.

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Here is the defining moment coming up, either flip $20 in support, or hold $20 as resistance.

We are clearly trying to change market structure here and make a move to the upside.

Although I was hoping for $13, I cannot deny the fact that price came within 5% of my target and may possibly be the low. Bitcoin is currently looking quite strong.

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Beautiful price action at the POC. This is a good sign to me unless we lose this level.

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Like clock work

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Starting to flip this zone into support.

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Markets are a little bit weaker at the moment. I am hedging my portfolio with a short on BTC as I believe we are likely to see a drop. I am keeping an eye on the $18-$19 range where our Range Point of Control is (rPOC).

Watching BTC approx , and potentially lower to 62k.

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Currently the previous range POC is giving us a rejection at $22. Will need more liquidity to move higher.

Ive adjusted my fixed range to give us the high and low value areas. We also have a new POC at $18. That will be very critical. If we drop below and confirm as resistance watch out for the $15 range.

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After zooming out I found a few trend lines that may give us some guidance here. Coincidentally we also have the 0.618 retrace if this is a pivotal rejection from the rPOC.

A bounce here, and recovery above $20 will be a key signal for me.

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So far holding up the $20 range as support, building more of a base here as we drop below and constantly pop up above.

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Market is looking slightly weak at the moment, as we have lost the $20 support zone.

We are also loosing the trending channel. I would not be surprised if we see a breakdown here on MARA.

My accumulation levels are marked below

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Here we are

Trade active

Adding shares on this drop

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If you are more of a conservative trader, what you can also do is wait for the POC to be reclaimed.

I personally like to start building a small position as price drops, however I will add more to the share count once we reclaim the POC.

If we backtest the $18 price point, and reject, we can then potentially expect lower which is our Value Area Low just above $15.

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Looking nice

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Now we wait for the $20 resistance. Will we reject or reclaim? Only time will tell

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If you have not yet been able to enter, here is what you will want to look for.

You will likely have sellers panic as the price breaks below the low, however its moving right into the CC zone and support zone.

This is called a swing failure pattern as sellers may fail to push price lower, and trap those on the wrong side of the market forcing them to buy back in at higher prices.

If we do not see this, and instead confirm the breakdown we can look for lower prices.

Please manage your risk accordingly

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Sniped it

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$20 support zone recovery

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This is the zone for the recent drop at the 0.618 CC that would be a sign of strength if we can hold it as support.

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The CC zone here is very important. Lose this level and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a flush.

This morning was a great chance to take profits closer to $21.

Now lets see if MARA gives us another chance to reload

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RSI giving us a bearish signal. SP500 and NQ looking a bit weak today.

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Looks like the bearish signals playing out. Be aware of the roll over, which could come back to retest the POC.

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Our POC has also shifted up to $20. This becomes even more crucial now. Lose this level, and we are likely to visit the Value Area Low at $16.

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Not looking too good here

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Retest again

Trade active

Nice buy area off the CC retrace.

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Something to note, Bitcoin has been very weak recently, in particularly today while the markets remain strong. We can see that although MARA is having some trouble reclaiming the POC, we are not getting a decisive rejection.

Instead it seems like the price is fluttering above and below this level as a range.

Whenever this type of price action happens, it gives me the thought that the markets are potentially expecting higher prices, or that MARA has built up a strong enough base around $20 that it is tough for price to move significantly below.

Either way, I am still continuing to add to the position if prices drop. Just make sure to have a bit of spare powder in case we do see a large swift drop.

We are also creating a value range here as the price consolidates which is why we are seeing this bounce.

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MARA is very sensitive when as bitcoin moves up, as per my idea earlier the $20 base is acting almost like an elastic right now as we trade in the range.

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This zone just crazy so much Yo-yoing

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Im not worried about MARA at the moment. Bitcoin is at the most critical level is has been the last few months. At the range VAL.

If we lose and backtest this level, we will likely see a very large drop. Until that has happened, I am not looking to short a major support.

Instead, I will add some MARA to my stack as I do believe in the longer term by fall we will be seeing the bigger moves.

Whenever I see MARA holding up strong as BTC dumps nearly 4% , it gives me confidence to stay in the trade. If you guys remember, historically, these miners would dump 2-3x what BTC would do.

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Common BTC!

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Unfortunately BTC has broken below the Value Area Low, forcing MARA to also break below the $19.

I would be careful here now. If we do see a rally, it might be a short opportunity.

If the BTC price sees a large pullback, I would not be surprised if we see mara trend toward our lower targets of $16.

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Despite BTC major dump, MARA is remaining resilient. I was honestly not expecting MARA to hold up so well.

I guess we will just be trading in a sideways range as we have for the last 4 months...

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POC Moving up a bit

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Is MARA potentially sniffing out BTC next move. Rallying while BTC dumping today. Looking towards the value area high around $21. Lets see if we can finally break or get rejected again.

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Nice move, resistance zone marked above us.

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Sitting at the current POC. We left a big gap above us which would be nice to fill at some point before the market makes a bigger move in the direction it chooses.

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So perfect, trading between value areas. Most recent bounce off the Value Area Low.

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At the bigger range resistance.

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Crucial S/R flip below for continuation to the upside.

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Buyers strong at the moment, we had a bit of a pullback to a low around $23.30, before a bounce.

This previous swing high has quite a bit of importance to me. A daily close today would show us strength with the potential reversal / squeeze zone approaching. Overall the $25 zone would critical to break and hold.

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We lost the crucial S/R flip zone, and making our way back down to fill this gap. The POC is sitting in a similar range just under $20. That will be important to hold or else we may see further downside pressure.

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Nice bounce, slight frontrun. We might get a double dip here as the downtrend is very strong. in order to confirm a reversal we generally need to retest the low and wick back up.

Ill be looking for that at the POC to add more shares.

Trade active

Added additional shares on this gap fill, which is also a potential triple bottom here, unless we reject from the VAL at $17. This may have just been a massive trap.

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Mara showing us signs that $17 may be the resistance, failing to get above the Value Area Low.

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Currently sitting out of the market and waiting for a buy the dip opportunity.

I would like to see Bitcoin hit the 0.618 golden pocket at approx 43k or take the lows from August around 47k.

That will be me DCA level, for multiple stocks as well.

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MARA starting to show me the signs I wanted to see. We finally dipped into the buy zone at $13, and got a strong bounce from the zone.

From here on out, I will be looking to re-accumulate MARA. I will be purchasing the stock if it dips, especially if we take the lows one more time. It took quite a while but eventually we made it to this price target.

Trade active

I am adding to my position here at $15.60 as the market pulled back after open. The confluence for me is the Value Area Low of the pervious range support.

Looking back at the chart, I really like the liquidity grab of the low, right into the previous range value area high, with an immediate bounce, and reclaim of the current VAL.

Reclaim here, and we should likely move up to the point of control just under $20, and then then the VAH at $24.

After that, lets look for the ATH at $30.

These massive rate cuts could be good news for the smaller caps, including MARA who could be quite interest rate sensitive.

This might finally be the moment we have been waiting for.

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Lovely break out!

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To me, we are getting one more buy the dip chance here.

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Personally, looking at this massive dip due to war tensions, as well as several other events globally as a chance to DCA into MARA.

I have a firm belief that the liquidity is going to be injected into the market, and it is through tough moments like this that I need to stick to my longer term plan while also managing risk.

This reminds me alot of the August dip, where many stocks rallied 20-30% in just a few weeks afterwards.

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We are clearly seeing the low value being built on MARA, every time we dip below $15 the stock is quickly bought up.

I want to bring this to all your attention as we may be seeing a clear wycoff accumulation pattern.

In this instance, there may be one more low known as the spring that is a liquidity grab of the last low we made recently.

This low is in perfect confluence with the overall long term trend on MARA around $13.

Keep your eyes out for this:

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Look at the overlap

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MARA looking nice. I have pulled some updated value ranges, and we can see how nicely the value area low is being respected.

As per the theory, we would expect the Value area high, however we have the range point of control as the resistance. Either we blast through it, confirm the support, and rally higher.

Or, we get a rejection into the liquidity zone from the gap up, and rocket from there.

Either way, things are starting to look exciting here.

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Alternate scenario if we keep pumping. Either way, be aware of the levels

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Currently its consolidating in a triangle formation

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Lets see if we get any pullbacks, they may be the last time we see MARA at these prices

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Watch the trendline

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get ready yall

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Going to add some here at $16.90.

Will keep adding as we drop lower. Watching the delta and seeing selling pressure starting to dry out.

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Existing range where I would like to see a bounce is between $16.60 - $16.80.

That will be the overall entry zone.

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The low may potentially be in here, if we start closing hourly candles above $17.35 then the low should be confirmed.

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Here we are at the entry

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In the banana zone, 5% risk to SL

Either we get smacked down here, or look forward to banana gains!

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Todays open, we need to reclaim the vwap at $17.25, and bounce higher. Breaking below the vwap would be a bit bearish to me. Lets hope we can stay above $17 today in general.

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Looking good, manage your risk accordingly.

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We ended up losing the anchored vwap here and smacked down. The sell pressure is still quite strong.

Bitcoin, ES, and NQ moving down did not help the overall trend. Bitcoin currently at a key zone. Will be watching Mondays price action incase this was the sell trap, or if we will be seeing lower prices to come.

I do believe this move could potential be part of a Elliot Wave Flat corrective structure, marked ABC where price is more likely to take the high before a further move.

Well see how it goes Monday

Trade closed: stop reached

Stopped out

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We are at a long term trend line. Going to sit out on MARA for now and stick to CLSK which seems to be respecting technicals much better than this stock.

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up closer

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Long term trendline clearly the one to pay attention to. Nice pump today on MARA, I was hoping we would hold up at $16, but got stop hunted! Congrats to all those who are regardless holding this stock long term. I will be sticking to CLSK for now as my miner of choice!

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Weekly level hit

afurs1

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