Long

Updated

MATICBTC: low-risk buy zone and bull cycle

Created on mobile so apologies for any unforeseen errors in chart.
Daily close line graph (white) is hidden, but current close price is provided.
Chart depicts lines graphs of daily pivot (pink), daily pivot average (orange), daily S1 (green), and daily R1 (red).
Stoch RSI and Market Bottom indicator provided.
Hold/Buy-zone range indicated by yellow (115) and green (94) horizontal lines.
Strong buy-zone range indicated by green (94) to red (47) horizontal lines.
Price targets for initial rally indicated by teal (145 and 200) horizontal lines.
Chart and analysis invalid if price breaks under red (47) horizontal line.

Analysis

EW count and market cycle psychology indicate beginning of new rally approximately at red vertical line (Depression phase) and Y (EW).
Wyckoff methodology suggests accumulation period between white and red vertical lines, respectively coinciding with EW W and Y.
Daily Stoch RSI indicates oversold.
Market bottom indicator indicates a local bottom at white vertical line coinciding with EW W.
Market cycle psychology indicates Anger phase at orange vertical line.

MATICBTC possibly ended it’s Bear cycle at the white vertical line where it began accumulating. Accumulation has possibly ended at red vertical line with the potential to rally to teal horizontal lines. However, the accumulation spring can potentially send price to as low as 47 sats prior to rallying. My take is that price will stay above 97 sats and that targeting sub-97 is too risky.

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Correction
All references to 97 should instead be 94 (green horizontal line).

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Based on the break of 94 price is now targeting 84-80 range. If that range breaks then 47-50 will very likely be targeted.

MATIC is possibly only in capitulation-anger phase of market cycle. This would invalidated my previous assessment of it being in Depression phase. If true, price can suddenly pump to ~115 before resuming its drop to bottom near 47-50. For long-term holders, this is still a great buy zone. For swing and day traders it’s likely worth waiting for a clearer buy signal.

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Exact same chart but with daily close-price line graph not hidden. I realized that the above chart will not update because of the line graph being hidden.

MATICBTC: Close-price line graph not hidden

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Get ready!

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Btw, it’s hard to tell from chart in above update but that is a wedge not a descending triangle. Mobile TV always skews my charts.

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Took a lot of profit at 149 and 150. I suspect a pullback to within range 100-115.

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I should note that it’s possible for subwave five to extend up to ~200. Gets riskier the higher you wait and it’s possible the top of this wave is in. Btw, I suspect all of this to be only a wave 1 (with five sun waves).

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Last update for tonight. Here’s the analysis behind my profit taking and forecast entry. Enjoy and good luck!

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Hmm... looking at volume and number of buyers... consider staying in MATIC if you haven’t sold.

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Bought some back in MATIC at 138. Potentially ended ABC correction and began a Wave 3. Targets indicated if so (fib levels 1 and 1.618).

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Just a thought.

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Looks like a drop. Going to consider re-entry at original target (100-115).

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Had/in a complex correction. Might have finished. On mobile, but here’s what I’m seeing. Don’t think it’ll drop much further because wave 1 had an extended sub-wave 5.

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Should have went with Daily and bars from the start. With this view, MATIC possibly completed a ~60% ABC, though with C = A (111 bottom). C could = 1.382 A and continue to 96. Based forecast on a 96 bottom.

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Really making us work for it...

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Actually a falling wedge. Get ready though!

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Next forecast based on Wyckoff accumulation (yellow lines) and EW/Fib. Red horizontal lines are sell targets, green are subsequent buy targets. Still a possibility that rally fails or that it instead pumps to 2.618 level (336).

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Looks like subwave 3 failed (less than 1.618 wave 1), but is still longer than wave 1. Therefore wave 5 = multiple of W1+W3. Potential sell targets shown in red. Current price 144. Based on this and previous posts, 235-240 is looking good.

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Also, keep your eyes on this. Risky, but would love for this to be a legit bull flag.

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New short-term target is 191, indicated by white EW count with a forecasted wave 5. Reasons provided below. Assumes a wave 1 of some degree ended and corrected to 102, indicated by Teal fib levels.

White primary EW count and Teal fib levels: Based on white EW count, wave 3 is slightly longer than 61.8% of wave 1. Wave 3 cannot be shortest wave. When wave 1 is long, the sum of waves 3 and 5 can equal length of wave 1, which targets 191. Further, this leads to wave 5 being about 61.8% of wave 1 but slightly shorter than wave 3. This would be valid.
Yellow fib levels and EW count: Based on yellow subwave count of white primary wave 3, subwave 3 is slightly longer than subwave 1. Subwave 5 is about 61.8% of subwave 1. This is a valid EW count, and would corroborate price target. Further, the
Orange fib levels and green price ranges: Based on falling wedge structure, rally pumped about twice the expected amount. Expected 133 but reached 160. Therefore, this is possibly invalid.
Red fib levels and horizontal rays: Based on continuing ABC correction since end of wave 1. Wave A would have corrected about 80% of w1, B corrected about 80% of A, and C corrected about 40% of B (about 32% of A). Possible but very unlikely given the magnitude of A and ratio of C to A.

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Not sure what happened. Here is chart for above update. Also, bullet two should end by saying the 1.618 and 2.618 yellow fib extensions also align with white EW wave 3 and target wave 5.

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Sorry - last related update for this morning. Only selling part of position at target in case price unexpectedly pumps. SL under 123 with rentry near 100.

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Correction to bullet two regarding yellow EW subwave 3, it is not longer than subwave 1. Instead, Subwave 3 is slightly less than subwave 1. Hence, subwave 5 is also truncated. Had subwave 3 been only slightly longer than subwave 1 (and less than 1.618 x subwave 1) then we’d expect subwave 5 to equal 1 to 1.618 x sum of subwave 1 and subwave 3 lengths.

Will remember to triple check my mobile updates next time I’m watching my newborn.

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Looks to be accumulating. Orange arrow could stay above yellow dashed line (acc w/o spring) or it could drop below bottom orange line (acc w/ spring).

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Can’t provide a chart for it yet, but as a slight alternative to this morning’s update, what I referr to as white EW wave 3 might instead be a lesser-degree wave 1 composed of the yellow EW 5-wave count. If true, then the below prices are lesser-degree wave 3 targets.
- 194 for 1:1
- 230 for 1:1.618
- 288 for 1:2.618

I suggest targeting 220 and higher unless you’re certain of what you’re doing. Since this assumes a wave 3 then we expect for a wave 5 to follow. Lower than 220 likely isn’t worth the risk of missing a rentry.

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Falling wedge - In my opinion, the simplest way to currently trade MATIC. At least 5 touches on trend lines, volume supports breakout, and although not depicted, there’s positive divergence at lows since based percentage price oscillator. No time estimate for targets.

I suggest tgt <= 505 despite 539 technically being top because it’s the peak of wedge. If you think price will overshoot, try 592 and 646. I strongly suggest taking some profit at 276 and 364 if trading only falling wedge pattern because they do not have the best track record.

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positive divergence at lows since 26 June*

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Hope everyone’s ready! I’ve provided a lot of information here. To make things simple, below is a previously shared chart for my near term targets. The falling wedge and corresponding 364-505+ targets are a little more long term.

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Fingers crossed doesn’t close below indicated price.

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Regarding above, technically can close below and be valid but more bullish if it doesn’t. Could be pennant could be sym triangle. Regardless, slight bullish bias because it began on an upswing instead of down move.

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Shows a few things this can be, i.e., pennant (bullish), rising wedge (bearish), and two sym triangles. Resistance line is top green dotted line. The different colored support lines differentiate the structures. Volume currently looks bearish so the pennant (green dotted support) could break down become invalid. If so, then the light blue/teal sym triangle/wedge is still in play. If that breaks then the blue sym triangle (opposite slope as green resistance line) is next. This isn’t necessarily bearish but means price could drop a lot from current price. The red resistance line is for a potential rising wedge, which is bearish. If the rising wedge plays out then I’d expect price to drop between 96-102.

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Nice volume spike at beginning of what looks to be accumulation.

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Come back from a hike to see this drop. Ugh. Went back to EW. Looks like downwards channel from truncated wave. Waves 3 and 5 are shorter than usual so potentially invalid, but makes most sense to me at the moment. Target buys at bounces off bottom of channel,one recently occurred. Sell at top, rebuy upon break above channel with confirmation. Potential ‘bottom’ targets are where channel intersects wave 4. If that breaks then similarly when intersection is in wave 2.

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BLUFF: Based on Wyckoff, fibs, and assumed (bullish) ascending triangle of Helkin Ashi (HA) candle indicator. This is instead of (bearish) rising wedge. Near-term targets: 210, 215, 231. Next targets: 255 and 338. Last update on this until there’s a significant move.

Chart reiterates the 145 and 200 price targets shown in my original chart. Arguably, an ascending triangle is forming. The alternative is a rising wedge. The peaks are close and slightly sloped (154 and 156). Based on Wyckoff and HA candles the next target is 208-210. However, using fib levels of actual price (white line) first target (148), of actual price (white line) we see actual price overshot HA price by .118 and .382. Applying this to 210 yields 215 and 231. Not shown are 255 and 338 HA-based targets using same concept.

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Btw, remember asending triangle is mainly on the HA candle indicator. Actual price can fall outside of the structure. Here’s only the HA indicator for visual reference.

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It's always worth checking volume. Certainly looks like accumulation to me.

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I’m becoming more pessimistic about a confirmed breakout upwards. Based on bar graph, price is in a symmetric triangle. I WOULD typically be bullish because it has formed after a long downtrend. Further, based on line graph of close price, an ascending broadening wedge is forming. Bulkowski says these typically break downwards. However, the chance of an upwards break increases if formed after a long downtrend.

If the triangle breaks downward TODAY with either a significant intraday drop lower than 140 or a close below 140, then I suggest covering long at 120 - the estimated price at bottom trendline of wedge. 125 is the estimated price of wedge pattern if price touches on FRIDAY. Ascending broadening wedge typically touch each trendline 3 times. For aggressive traders, Bulkowski suggests going or covering long at 3rd touch of bottom trendline, which would be between 120 and 125 if it occurs between now and eod Friday. Price should touch too trendline at least once more. Would be up to you to sell or cover short. If this wedge pattern breaks down, price typically retraces to beginning price (93). A rough target estimate for an upwards break by 27 Aug is 240.

Again, triangle still in play but I’m less optimistic at this point because of wedge line graph pattern. However, wedge not in play, in my opinion, until break of triangle.

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Most bullish pattern, and why I maintain most of my position, is shown in last chart of 4hr tf. Most of these are bullish but on lesser timeframes than previous update of daily tf, which to me looks slightly bearish.
Pink ascending triangle 1hr still valid but 2hr looks to have broken downwards.

Downwards channel that looks bullish above yellow line on 2hr.
Bullish sym triangle on 4hr. Possibly upwards breakout.

Upwards breakout of falling wedge on 4hr. Shows bottom would have ended with the green accumulation pattern (bullish), which I’ve also bounded with light green vertical and horizontal lines.

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Looks like I forgot to post this one.

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Looks like recent pump served to only solidify the continued ascending triangle.

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Looks likely to revisit 92 - 100 range.

Teklologist

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Teklologist