Short

Updated

MATIC redistribution?

The example redistribution chart is from this article:

stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2015/11/redistribution-the-evil-twin.html

I like the similarities. I've been trying to make sense of MATIC chart for some time. This is my best bet as of now.

Personally got a small short from 1.204.

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The point is.. If this is not the case, I guess I'm out of ideas. I don't know what this is. This part is interesting for me.

I mean reaccumulation? Idk it doesn't make sense to me.

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Look at this part. This is obviously a distributive behavior.

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I'd like to see this fresh line become a resistance.

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Weird.

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We shall see.

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There is a iH&S bullish argument on this timeframe. Invalidate that and bears are all good.

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Imagine not shorting this. Added a lil bit here. 1.195 new average.

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Cool. Target range bottom (0.76)

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Not my target I mean :D Target of this PA. I will hold until I see a very good bullish argument.

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It might seem unrealistic for the majority of crypto people but it is what it is. If this is a redistribution you expect a serious new market low. Such as:

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Nature says down. Let's see if someone interferes or not.

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Reduced size by 50% here @1.118. Something doesn't fit.

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I think a visit to +$1.30 is probable.

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I might be wrong about short-term bullish potential. I wanna see it trading below $1.08.

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Weekly close is bad. Bearish continuation is more likely this week.

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Not so different, is it? Copy of the distribution. Literally re-distribution.

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We are seeing signs of redistribution on this frame too imo. Market makers can create big ranges whenever they want, whether you like it or not.

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Increased size again. This week slow next week bearish continuation imo.

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We are in the next week. fyi :D

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Reduced size by 50% @0.955. Negative funding. Too sharp move. It's better to reduce risk here.

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It was kinda obvious. I expect days of sideways. In my bearish view at least.

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Me exposing plans of MATIC whales lately. Let's see if I'm right for the last one.

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Trade for a bear is simple. You don't want it back above this level:

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If it does this I'll close my short. It gives me that vibe for some reason.

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A bit earlier than I expected. It might be a fake.

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Ok I must say this looks very real. 0.76.

Trade closed manually

Closed short. I will consider to short in case of a bounce. Most of this position is from ~1.2. So.. MATIC is down 30%+ since I published this idea. Watch time for me.

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Bad days are over. Worse days ahead of us :D

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It's a bit too obvious to be real but I love it.

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I'm waiting for a little pump for re-entry. Possibly 0.95-0.98.

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I've closed at May 11 ~.0.85. MATIC whales are copy trading me lol.

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How painful this would be tho.

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I'm not shorting this. Looks bullish. Favoring h&s idea for now.

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I am in ~0.89. Stop ~ 0.92. Somehow it turned bearish and I jumped.

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Increased size ~0.89. Looks good.

Trade closed manually

Closed short ~0.848. I don't like news based nukes. Good enough for me.

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With that said, I see nothing bullish about MATIC. On any timeframe. Only sentiment can save it. If it goes bearish here.

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Still really bad. It's a great support level but..

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Wooow

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Personally I stopped trading crypto. I only have two shorts that I've been holding for a long time. BNB and ETH. Tbh it's kinda crazy to put serious money on crypto exchanges right now. So this is probably the last update to this idea. GLHF :D

Trade active

This is probably top of the correction. I've entered a small position ~0.74.

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If I'm wrong, see you above $1 again.

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If I'm right, See you here:

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I wanna be just a lil bit stubborn here. Added some ~0.77. Stop just above 0.79.

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Trade failed but rally failed too. Bitcoin looks really bad. I can't see an edge on MATIC chart. I'm still on the bearish side considering Bitcoin's outlook as of now.

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Bear flag with a fakeout or parabolic move just after a big nuke. Choose your side. I prefer bear flag.

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This cute little parabola is broken. There is a trendline to possibly hold the price. Break that too and everything was a lie.

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Slow bleed around here is the worst. Big stop hunt, excitement whatever you wanna call it and then trap with every step. Slowly.

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I still think BTC looks bad but I'm not gonna assume it will break down without a big bounce. At this point I wanna try new short-term positions after breakdown not before.

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It's terrible for sure but my gut feeling tells me that we need a wick in this grey box, after all this shit show. It's like 50/50. But still discourages me for opening a wide stop loss position.

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BTC should fix the range today. Or there will be blood.

Trade active

I'm in with a tight stop position. Looks like bearish consolidation. .72/.74

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Some might think it's a late short but it had to be. BTC was teasing the idea of a reaccumulation range. MATIC had reclaimed HTF support. Now both gone so why not try imo.

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I've seen many crypto charts today. MATIC is the weakest by far. There is a chance for BTC to save it but that window is narrowing right now.

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Inverted monthly chart for MATIC. Kinda bullish isn't it?

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My guess is that we go back to 0.7. Go sideways for a while. If there is liaquidity it starts to crash.

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First my stop became resistance now my entry became resistance :D Good feeling.

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I wanted go wide-stop here. I like what I see and don't wanna get out with the chop. 0.83 new stop. Not because I'm expecting a bounce but because I trust this position more now.

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I'm seeing BTC reclaiming its range back charts everywhere. At first I thought it was a good possibility. But at this point I'd be surprised.

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Moved stop to entry. I dislike this last move.

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This might be just wick of the week real quick but shouldn't go higher than this imo.

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I really believe there is a good possibility we see a nose dive in 24h.

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It's not hard to imagine these 2 structures are essentially the same thing. But I'm surprised they are still holding. Maybe I'm wrong.

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Little parabolic trend. Let's see what happens.

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Stop still at entry 0.72. BTC trying to fix its bearishness right now. If it doesn't fail expect new highs from BTC. But I'd expect BTC dominating alts are hard. If it fails alts are dead.

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BTC bullish above 30.3 to be awfully exact. 31k-32k will be unimportant at that point. Even 40k would be on the table. For now, macro magic number 30k acted as resistance.

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Good news for bears is that US markets started look really heavy. I'm really curious how all this will turn out.

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There is a real chance that no one is prepared for what's coming. Including me. Ooor my feeling is wrong and everything is fine.

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I see great enthusiasm in crypto community. Feels like never seen before. Not even above 60k. Not saying it's automatically a bad thing but it needs to be tested some time soon.

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Have a look at total chart. Amazing chart. What happens when you test a support for so long? Equal lows but you had an upthrust too.

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Aren't we all so tired of this :D Let's hope we see a Friday move. Either way.

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Especailly ETH looks scary. Just like TOTAL chart. It spent so much at the top of the range.

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TOTAL pushes support as we approach Monday. Let's see let's see.

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We can also describe this as a weird H&S pattern. We don't need to copy paste schematics exactly. If the psychological effect is the same, then it is a h&s.

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I have a bunch of shorts in addition to MATIC short I'm updating here. Opened mostly last week. After I gained some confidence about bearishness. Plus BNB&ETH positions I've been holding for months now. I'm not planning to hold for long though. Either my stops get hit soon or we see a panic sell soon and I get out of all exchanges quickly.

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Reduced size %50 here @0.65. 10% drop from my entry. Not bad.

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If this TOTAL chart turns into something bullish without a serious sell-off, i swear i never touch crypto again :D Ridiculous chart. Also beatiful in a way.

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Well, at least my nasdaq shorts are printing :D I can't believe crypto market. Truly magnificent.

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I'm not gonna lie. It's starting to look good. Most shorts are very close to stops. Moved MATIC stop to 0.7. Looks like I'm about to gtfo crypto :D

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I mean it can do this. It's very logical but idk. Bitcoin looks really weird. Why all this effort after breaking a long range? It's tested too. That's a big question mark for me.

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Some people are struggling to understand trading crypto one way. Down. It's possible and I'm profitable even in 2023. Logic is simple. I'm not in until big scammers and idiots like Saylor are out. I can't know when big a scammer is going to cash out. Or gets busted. And believe me or not macro Bitcoin chart is bearish. Doesn't matter what comes before the continuation of *the first* Bitcoin bear market. 40k, 50k, 70k. Sure, pour it in. But eventually scammers will cash out. Idiots will lose everything. Exchanges will be regulated. And then something new can be built from the ashes. Until then every pump is scam pump for me. No matter how big. When I see reversal signs I try short trades and that's all.

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Just like that famous guy said. "Echo bubble" Crypto heads worship the guy. He only refuses the see big pain ahead. But yes it was a great call. The bigger the bubble the better for this real bear market.

Trade closed manually

Manually closed all positions. MATIC ~0.69

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So technically, I'm leaning towards the bullish side right now. BTC is the reason(trading at 29.8k atm). That also means BTC should dominate the alts hard if it pumps. It can fail but I see bullish signs on LTF. So not trading crypto until it gets clearly bearish.

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Just wtf. Diverge if you are gonna diverge lol. It was already pretty obvious stock market was going down. Anyway I'm good with stock market.

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I guess we should say this is our range now. Maybe it will move in this for longer. With fakeouts soon. It's not tradable in my opinion. Maybe good for day traders.

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I think this is the worst BTC PA I've ever seen. Crypto in general. Volatility crashed really hard.

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Some say 200DMA crossing 200WMA will save BTC. Maybe. Bearish cross created the 15k bottom. Bullish cross should be interesting. We will see.

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Imagine this. We get a good news like the FTX news at 15k. Bullish cross leads us somewhere close to 40k. Bitcoin stalls alts go crazy. And that's the generational top. It'd be cool.

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Where would MATIC go in that case? I think 1.2-1.3. It's pretty obvious. Big left shoulder.

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Longs dominate the futures market. But it's a matter of who is long imo. I can't say retail is aping into longs right now. I do think retail is bullish very obviously. But not for very short-term imo. So I'm still expecting a pump. Then we can see what kind of pump is that and try trading it.

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I say I'm expecting a pump but if i had some confidence i'd try short-term longs. The market is just very weird. It can be just a stupid bearish consolidation too. No volume no nothing.

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We all talk about how ridiculous and unpredictable the market behaves but this is actually beautiful. BTC is above all key moving averages but on the other hand this is a monster bear setup.

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But I still talk about a move to 35k-40k level because that's usually how macro turnarounds happen. We call them climax for a reason. Big euphoria or fear moments put an end to macro trends.

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I got some small shorts. MATIC 0.67/0.68. Market is long PA is trash. I thought it's worth a try. Stops are really tight. So either this is really weakness and I add even more below, or get out with stops and keep waiting.

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I swear it's not me lol. Just MATIC loves me.

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Reduced size by 50% with manual TP @0.62. There are some little things I don't like but we'll see.

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Do you know what this pattern is called? Quinquagenary bottom.

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Watch BNB. That shit looks ready.

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I have TP orders ~0.58. They will reduce the size by 50% one more time. Then we'll see.

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I'm taking the funds out immediately after I TP btw. If you trust global crypto exhanges while BNB looks like this, all I can say is good luck.

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BTC didn't confirm the range I was talking about earlier. So I'm not really sure what it's doing right now. Two very important moving averages ~27.300. We have to see if they are good enough.

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I'm sure most smart people interested in crypto have the same distrust with exchanges. And that's a huge red flag for crypto. It means we won't see the market heavily shorted like before. If Bitcoin loses 27k, I will probably think there is no coming back. Except maybe a last run for a right shoulder. Because we will probably see heavy spot selling. Many long-term holders might lose interest.

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TP's are filled. Now positions are very small.

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What?? It didn't even care about 27k. Holy shit.

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Holy fuck.

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I'm out. All exchanges everything. Don't try to long this.

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Not just long. Don't try to short as well. Altough I was ultra bearish, this is ridiculous. It's not a game you can play.

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I don't care about news to be honest. 27k needed to be defended in any case. It is not only broken. It is absolutely destroyed.

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First, you sold. Now, they sold.

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Almost ready. Give it a few days to turn around.

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Those who longed this pump have no clue of trading. Such significant weakness can't be fixed this easily.

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Ignore the news. This is bearish as fuck.

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ETH. Between life and death.

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Some people hate to see it, but look how useless the comparisons with 2019-2020 are for ETH. You don't have a macro bullish setup here.

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Looks good for a short but I won't.

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I believe this week will be important. Watching 26.700 level on BTC for a potential strength. MATIC is straight bad.

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BNB on the other hand, sheeesh. If that chart is not looking for a strong dive, I'm missing something big.

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Hmmm another ETF filing. Thanks, I can't be bullish about this.

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LTF distribution after testing 26.700. Interesting.

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I've been very hesitant about trading crypto last few weeks. But I just opened an ETH short position @1620. It looks good in my opinion. Definitely worth a try.

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It's now or never situation if you ask me. All that distribution around 31k and then this one. It should be enough to go down or bears are wrong.

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Damn it's scary. Got 50% TP @1570. But I believe risk-off has become clear.

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I'm kinda surprised this thing is still holding. Somehow.

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Imagine looking at this chart and buying ETH. I can't.

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It's kinda crazy I've done this though :D It was a good week.

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Which one makes more sense? Either way, I believe we will have a strong trending market soon.

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The problem with trading the bullish scenario above is that probably no exchange with futures will be safe to deposit your money. Everybody would want a strong and positive market. The opposite? Not so much.

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I give ETH 24h to move :D Or I get out.

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Volume profile is good tool for this kind of range.

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Too much test for the level above. I just wanna see a fakeout for the sake of my position. But I'm close to neutral about this mini range.

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I just placed a stop order ~1590.

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Survived by a dollar :D For now.

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Stopped out obviously. I could easily set a really wide stop-loss and wait. But this structure is a little bit too much for me. It had every reason to break down. But it didn't. It's best to sit and watch.

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Tbh starting to look bullish. I wouldn't short this and I won't.

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Interesting dancing around 200W SMA. Action next week probably.

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This is what we are trading. Crazy if you think about it. I honestly can't see a bullish argument for long-term.

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I wish I could. Making money in a bull market is safe and easy. Buy spot and forget about it. DCA into short-term positions. New projects everyday bla bla.

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And this is the big guy. I mean.. You tell me what this is.

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Here is a chart for comparison. Sorry but I am with the old guy.

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I think now you understand why I went back to the high timeframe :D

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This was a nicely built bullish move. Just an hourly chart but it might be enough to make a new high for the year. Maybe. 33k is an interesting level.

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Let's say if we break this resistance we do that kind of thing. Daily close in or above the box will improve the odds.

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ETH monthly looks like this right now. Just saying. It's all the same to me right now :D

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Gotta say BTC looks somewhat bullish. BTC.D too. That run we've been waiting for coming?

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Never seen such difference between ETH and BTC chart tho. One is lying.

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Look at this. Everything bullish worked on this chart :D If a chart wants to be this bullish there is probably a reason.

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BTC consolidating right below 200D SMA. My bias is barely bullish. Depending on the weekly close and the opening of the next week I can trade it.

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If I had the power, I would do this. It fucks everyone. Halving, FED pivot, Blackrock, ETF's... Money will flow to BTC in 2024, r-right?

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Charts look like shit. Longs dominating. It is what it is. I exptected a last rally to blow up some shorts and create some excitement but looks like some people don't even care about WW3 :D I don't wanna short too. I watch for fun.

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The Bitcoin breakout is going to be spectacular. I love making of this chart :D

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Finally breached the 200D SMA and exploded. Not a surprise. They will lure you in.

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This was the characteristics of it all year. It's a joke. Explode and sell sell sell.

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Lol, let me finish my sentence "store of value".

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Honestly I don't give a shit about ETF's. Bitcoin is a super easy to buy digital asset. It can definitely help to sell more coins to retail. Because they will feel safer. But that's it. Rejected or approved, it makes no difference for my long-term opinion.

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I have one strong TA argument for bearishness in a few months(at best). BNB chart. That's just textbook redistribution. If BNB is fucked, market is fucked.

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I'm not getting a position in crpyto. Let it do its job.

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SOL is the only alt chart I've seen that looks good. Really interesting. Honestly I regret not getting a SOL position a week ago :D It was obvious.

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I'm betting on this. For a looong time :D I never expected to take this long to be honest. But I'm not going to trade it until I see it clearly.

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It's important to note there is still very low volume. If we get the volume above 31k, that will be interesting.

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MATIC chart for short-term is not really bad. I'm watching 0.76 level.

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See. This needs a retest. I actually have a short order at 0.76. But I may cancel.

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Everywhere I look, I see 3 digits numbers for BTC. 180k,230k, 330k... They don't really need a huge pump. They target 10x for an asset with 1T+ market cap so easily. The narrative is there, everywhere. Imagine the sentiment when BTC hits 35k or something. It'll be crazy.

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Nice. Let them cook.

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Didn't bait people into thinking it's a h&s or double top. Just running like a raging bull. Cute.

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I did a little bit short scalp above 35k but that's it. I think we'll have time to short it. If this is it.

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As expected. It hits 35k and the sentiment goes CRAZY. I'll write it down one last time. We are very close.

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These "crypto bros", completely malign, low iq charlatans. I'm a computer engineer. I know many great engineers and computer scientists. Never met a Bitcoin maxi. Most are indifferent to it. Cautiously positive at best. They think they see what everyone can't see. Even the best economists are a joke for them. They are the ultimate authority regarding economics politics specifically.

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I'm starting to believe we need 40k. Yes I believed 35-36k will be super important. But that's what I do. One step at a time. Right now I'm not convinced enough to short.

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We need every bear to say "I was wrong" :D Yes we are close but there is still doubt in market imo.

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This is kind of bullshit I'm imagining. Meanwhile it'd be nice to see shitcoins run. So basically I short above 37k. I'll probably do what I haven't done for some time. Build position.

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So in this scenario, it might take 6-8 months for bears to start printing. But it is what it is. I want clear weakness on the macro chart. Patience.

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If my gut feeling is right and we need a little bit more, I'm looking at 41k. Going above that convincingly is an invalidation in my eyes.

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41 is interesting.

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Imagine if it actually went to 41k and it was truly the top. Don't you think every retailer would settle for 30k? They will buy at every level. You know, there is "a support" everywhere down below. And it will be "down too much" when it hits them.

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Have a look at funding rates. That's a view we want to see. If you don't forget that distributions are volatile af and wait for it you will win as a bear.

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This a macro bear setup and I will not relent.

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I believe rollercoaster phase started. We need extensive rollercoastering.

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My degen LTF TA says: We go 32.5k, then 37k+.

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I really like this. Some shitcoins going crazy. Bull market euphoria everywhere. I started short to BTC today @35200. I also have orders above 37k. DCA and HODL time for me.

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Have you guys heard that BlackRock is planning to buy all the Bitcoins? We should buy some Bitcoin ASAP. Otherwise BlackRock and Saylor can make Bitcoin's promise fail. "Decentralized money" Not money, not decentralized. Numbers on the internet with a limited supply that belongs to BlackRock and Saylor. BUT these numbers will represent all the value on Earth. So lords of the BlackRock and Saylor will be the gods of the new era. Yeah.

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Did we underestimate the importance of this level? Even me. Possible. I'm still cautious but honestly most of the conditions look good for bears.

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I still like 32.500 and new high idea btw. Or something similar. I wanna see a full-blown distribution.

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TA gurus first said it's up only. Then they said it's a bullish pennant. Then they said it's a channel to valhalla. No dips. Signs of strength they said. Let's watch what's the next narrative for their TA.

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Just added more to Bitcoin short ~35.500. Canceled a few orders above 37k. Only BTC for now.

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I canceled that MATIC order near 0.77 btw. I think there is good chance it goes higher. Above 0.9 at least.

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Only Bitcoin for now because it's doing exactly what I was expecting for a long time. Goes above 35k, shows "strength" to the market. Alts go crazy one by one. Alts create more greed for retail. Because they are leveraged by nature.

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I had a lot of orders ~37.500 and filled just now. I know that it looks bullish right now. If I see the bearish structure in the coming weeks I'll just add more and more. I can still scale this position easily 10x right now and still sleep peacefully. That's the point. And I think yes it's coming to 41k.

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It's basically inverse DCA and HODL.

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2 years of nothing in TOTAL. Crypto is royally fucked. Soon everyone will see.

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I reduced size a little bit. The timing for this quick flush is bad in my view. It makes it hard to build a bearish case on the chart right now.

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For MATIC I see a possible reversal in the short-term for example. For Bitcoin, not really.

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I hate to say it but this is actually bull market behavior :D So yeah it's a bull market until it isn't.

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I think MATIC might be topped here. Yes I don't think BTC is topped but MATIC likes to move against it.

Trade active

I have a small short anyway ~0.87

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WTF is this accuracy tho :D OMG

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35 -> 41 -> dead

UnknownUnicorn17387766

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UnknownUnicorn17387766