Long

LVMH (ticker:MC) starting consolidation, before going 900+ ?

Updated

LVMH (MC ticker! EUR based) in multi-decade uptrend, nice upside momentum overall.
Overall I do have one "bearish" scenario, however the probabilites for that are quiet low as of now, so far therefore not tracking.

I would say the two big "bullish" scenario, soon nearing a local top and I would primarly expect a consolidation/correction, before going likely to at least 900+
Overall the white one have would gave us a bigger correction, while the yellow one would give a somewhat smaller correction before going up to finish up the big ABC pattern to finish off yellow wave (3)

So far we are just above the 200day MA, BUT below the 50/52, and also so far the 9day/21 day EMA/SMA rejecting price action. Also from the top I can count 5 waves down, which is suggesting and overall correction likely to continue. This so far also supported by the weekly RSI and volume actions, with growing momentum to the downside.

Therefore I would expect primarly the yellow route (60%) against the white one (40%). This would mean:
near term - bearish
short term - bearish/neutral shifting slightly to bearish
mid term - bullish
long term - overall bullish

Note

Also giving you an alt white (3) scenario, blue-ish colored, fib box added that for very near term.
Primarly I would expect though the yellow route because of the 5 waves down, also so far on the micro we have only 3 waves up, so the blue-ish to work out would likely need to be a diagonal, and would also mean the wave 4 finished later as an irregular flat (low chances I would say).

With the downtarget there is a very nice confluence as well around the 550-ish levels. My best idea is to go light and scale-in sequentually with the triangle method going more heavy, without hedging/leverage for the blue-box, same for yellow fib box.

Note

Price has fallen further as expected. Reason for the update: the blue-ish subversion of the white, the "hopium white", in which there could be a slim chance for an extension, reaching very nice risk-reward ratio. Also,in the yellow route the c wave of wave 4 should be near to a wave 1 low, where a wave 2 (or b) should follow, although thats more for swing traders. I have added there a resistance box.

Note

Price fell more, down to the 0.854 retracement, which is quiet deep for the blue "hopium" count, but still acceptable, and NOT invalidated so far.

Now it is possible a low is in, either for the blue (hopium) as wave (ii), or for the yellow route, where likely yellow wave i is bottoming/has bottomed. In order to have a first sign we would nead to break above:
-microresistance fib box
-the falling yellow trendline
All theese should happen while putting in 5 waves up.
I have added a small blue support fib box, which HAVE TO HOLD therefore.

I can imagine having one more swingdown as a 3 count move for the blue: 680 should hold, but chances are growing it is going to fail.
670: barely acceptable for the blue, and chances growing exponentially it gonna fail, altough the risk-reward ratio is extremely good there. For the yellow, it is very much acceptable.

Yellow wave i also could extend down to ~650/~643 roundabout.
Resistance (red box) also adjusted to the previous price actions.

Note

Blue of course got invalidated as expected; yellow is in support area generally (big wave 4 under creation), I would expect either 1 or 2 more swinglows even for that, to finish off wave circle 5, which I track now as a diagonal to the downside.

Now, in that case, circle wave 4 could extend higher, even breaking above the falling dotted trendline, and is valid till no comfortable, sustained break above the smaller 0.618 fib level. We also reaching the 50/52 day MA's which likely could act as a resistance as well, so we have MA resistance, structural resistances, trendline resistance, and of course the smaller red fib resistance levels&zone. Even if its break all above that, we have the bigger fib resistance box, and if fails, it can be still the yellow, however with a more complex, likely WXY (more likely) or WXYXZ (less likely) structure with extended overall wave 4 correction time&price wise.

Note

Technicly now possible that yellow has bottomed (ALT), in that case the small white fib box must hold. So far, we broke out of the "likely" diagonal to the downside's channel, so far however we have only 3 waves up on the shorter timeframe. The big red box adjusted, which is the resistance area.

7 days ago

Note

For the yellow we are getting an extension; we reached the next probable turnaround area. Be aware so far there is neither 5 waves up even on the micro, nor a possible diagonal start.

Probable turnaround levels highlighted, it is possible, the yellow is expanding even further with the wave iv being an expanded irregular flat, and also with an expanded abc as the last wave, hence the alt scenario, in which the light-pink resistance box will be in effect. Be aware the more we drop now, the more we need to adjust both pink/red resistance boxes. Also we have reached a structural support, so chances are good for a possible start of a turnaround in yellow.

White still in place, meaning, this whole move (so far as an abc in yellow) will be just an a wave of a way bigger drawdown, but even then we would need to "attack" the upper resistance area (red) so a long setup is reasonable.

tommtajlor

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