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comment: 3 weeks inside a tight range but market keeps getting rejected under the weekly 20ema and it’s consecutive bear bars now. Below 59.8 I favor the bears for more downside.
current market cycle: monthly time frame is a broad bear channel - weekly tf is a bear wedge - daily is a trading range
key levels: 55 - 64
bull case: Bulls need a daily close above 64 to retest the bear trend line of this big bear wedge from the January high 78.1. That’s the whole story for now. Market oscillates around 61 without any momentum, so buy low, sell high until it stops working.
Invalidation is below 59.8.
bear case: Bears need a daily close below 59.8 for more downside but market has been pretty much in balance for 3 weeks around 61. Problem for the bulls is, that we closed lower again and the tails above the weekly bars are much bigger than the ones below bars. So bears are slightly favored but only very slightly.
Invalidation is above 64.4
short term: Neutral. Playing the range until it stops working but mostly only small scalps. Market is likely waiting for an end to the tariff madness which might not come.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-05-25: Need a clear break of the trading range 54 - 64 before we can come up with new targets. Bear trend (wedge) is valid until the trend line breaks.
comment: 3 weeks inside a tight range but market keeps getting rejected under the weekly 20ema and it’s consecutive bear bars now. Below 59.8 I favor the bears for more downside.
current market cycle: monthly time frame is a broad bear channel - weekly tf is a bear wedge - daily is a trading range
key levels: 55 - 64
bull case: Bulls need a daily close above 64 to retest the bear trend line of this big bear wedge from the January high 78.1. That’s the whole story for now. Market oscillates around 61 without any momentum, so buy low, sell high until it stops working.
Invalidation is below 59.8.
bear case: Bears need a daily close below 59.8 for more downside but market has been pretty much in balance for 3 weeks around 61. Problem for the bulls is, that we closed lower again and the tails above the weekly bars are much bigger than the ones below bars. So bears are slightly favored but only very slightly.
Invalidation is above 64.4
short term: Neutral. Playing the range until it stops working but mostly only small scalps. Market is likely waiting for an end to the tariff madness which might not come.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-05-25: Need a clear break of the trading range 54 - 64 before we can come up with new targets. Bear trend (wedge) is valid until the trend line breaks.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.