2024-12-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - wti crude oil
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil futures - Neutral. Bulls did what they had to, to prevent a flush down to 66. Market traded above 70 and we made a higher low. Bulls would need to print 71.5 for a higher high and I can’t see that happening as of now. Chop between 68 and 70 is most likely here.
comment: Midpoint of this triangle is around 69.3 and this will be a magnet until we either make higher highs or lower lows. It’s a trading range, don’t over analyze it.
current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 66 - 70
bull case: Bulls had a decent day and turned the market completely neutral again. Only above 71.5 they are favored for higher prices. For tomorrow I expect some more sideways price action between 69 and 70.5.
Invalidation is below 66.27
bear case: Bears need to keep it below 71.5 or we are making higher highs again. They tried to close below 68 for 4 days and today we saw bears giving up on it. Bears are still favored to keep it inside the triangle, so either play the range or don’t trade at all. Betting on a huge breakout is not a decent strategy after going sideways for so long.
Invalidation is above 71.5.
short term: Neutral inside the triangle. Area round 70.5 should be huge resistance.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Could have longed anywhere and made money. 1h 20ema is strong support until broken.
tl;dr
wti crude oil futures - Neutral. Bulls did what they had to, to prevent a flush down to 66. Market traded above 70 and we made a higher low. Bulls would need to print 71.5 for a higher high and I can’t see that happening as of now. Chop between 68 and 70 is most likely here.
comment: Midpoint of this triangle is around 69.3 and this will be a magnet until we either make higher highs or lower lows. It’s a trading range, don’t over analyze it.
current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 66 - 70
bull case: Bulls had a decent day and turned the market completely neutral again. Only above 71.5 they are favored for higher prices. For tomorrow I expect some more sideways price action between 69 and 70.5.
Invalidation is below 66.27
bear case: Bears need to keep it below 71.5 or we are making higher highs again. They tried to close below 68 for 4 days and today we saw bears giving up on it. Bears are still favored to keep it inside the triangle, so either play the range or don’t trade at all. Betting on a huge breakout is not a decent strategy after going sideways for so long.
Invalidation is above 71.5.
short term: Neutral inside the triangle. Area round 70.5 should be huge resistance.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Could have longed anywhere and made money. 1h 20ema is strong support until broken.
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